Here are 5 wise wagers for today's games
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Quite a few pitcher props stand out as strong MLB betting options available on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday.
Yankees vs. Reds
The wager: Gerrit Cole under 4.5 hits allowed
Line: -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)
Cole is coming off a brutal start in Boston. However, his struggles were mostly due to the fact Rafael Devers hits him well. The All-Star third baseman accounted for two of his team’s five hits and drove in all of their five runs against Cole.
Regardless, there’s nothing wrong with targeting a good pitcher after a poor outing. While Cole’s strikeout prop (7.5) might stand out as an option, the under on his hits allowed prop has been a little more consistent this season. He’s given up five-plus hits in eight of his 17 starts. More importantly, he’s gone under this total in five of his eight home starts. The Reds have a 31% strikeout rate, .138 ISO and .293 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks -- far from intimidating numbers.
Red Sox at Rays
The wager: Chris Sale over 4.5 hits allowed
Line: +115 (Bet $100 to win $115)
When you look at how teams have hit left-handed pitching of late, the Rays don’t stand out. Over the last two weeks, they only have a .126 ISO and .313 wOBA against lefties -- marks that put Tampa Bay just outside the bottom 10 in both categories. However, Chris Sale is making his first MLB start of 2022. He’s not going to be himself. Moreover, he walked five hitters in his last rehab start -- it wouldn’t be a shock to see him compensate and ensure that doesn’t happen on Tuesday. That would mean more hittable pitches for Tampa Bay hitters. Plus, Sale gave up four hits in his Double-A rehab start and three at Triple-A, and he didn’t go beyond four innings in either outing.
Also, as much as the Rays have lacked power against lefties, they are hitting a ton of line drives against them. Over the last two weeks, Tampa Bay has a whopping 29% line-drive rate against left-handed pitching, which is part of why the Rays have a ridiculous .358 BABIP against them during that same span.
Cardinals vs. Dodgers
The wager: Paul Goldschmidt over 1.5 total bases
Line: +115 (Bet $100 to win $115)
Home or road, righty or lefty, Goldschmidt has been a force at the plate. That said, he’s been much better at home, posting a .499 wOBA and .351 ISO at Busch Stadium in 2022. Those numbers dip down a bit when focusing on the right-handed pitchers he’s faced in St. Louis, but a .315 ISO and .469 wOBA are still absurd numbers. Across his last 66 home plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Goldschmidt has a .368 ISO and .487 wOBA.
All that said, he’s gone hitless in his last two games. While Mitch White has been tough on righties this season, Goldschmidt is due for a pair on Tuesday -- be it a pair of hits or a pair of bases via an extra-base hit.
Orioles at Cubs
The wager: Orioles moneyline
Line: +100 (Bet $100 to win $100)
Backing Jordan Lyles might seem aggressive with the way he started off this season, but the right-hander has actually been quite good of late. In his last five starts, he has a 3.48 ERA and 3.66 FIP. Lyles has had some rough days on the road, but Baltimore has been in every game he’s started. Since May 8, the Orioles have only lost a Lyles start by more than two runs once (three vs. Boston on May 28). As much as the Orioles have been picking on left-handed pitching more than righties this season, quality starts are all this lineup and bullpen need right now to have a shot at a win.
Tigers at Royals
The wager: Beau Brieske over 15.5 outs recorded
Line: +125 (Bet $100 to win $125)
Brieske has gone over this number eight times in 14 starts. Six of the outings in which he’s logged 16-plus outs have come in his last eight starts. The two recent exceptions came in appearances where he got roughed up by the Red Sox and Diamondbacks -- even then, he almost went over this number against Boston.
The Detroit rookie’s season-long numbers may seem alarming, but since June, he has a 3.18 ERA and 3.76 FIP. Now, Brieske has been worse on the road than at home, but he’s coming off a strong performance away from Detroit, which followed a shut-down performance vs. the Royals at Comerica Park. Tuesday will be at Kauffman Stadium, where Kansas City has been struggling against righties. Over the last two weeks, the Royals only have a .108 ISO and .306 wOBA against right-handed pitchers at home -- despite their .309 BABIP during that span.
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