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As always, tonight Apple TV+ will host two baseball games, and they’re good ones. We start with the Blue Jays continuing their series in New York against the Yankees at 7 p.m. ET, followed by Rangers at Twins at 8 p.m. ET. Let’s go over two bets for each game you can follow along with while watching tonight.

Blue Jays at Yankees
The wager: Blue Jays Run Line -0.5 1st 5 innings
Line: +110 (bet $100 to win $110)

With the offensive struggles the Yankees continue to endure, I like the Blue Jays to have the lead after five innings are completed. They’re starting Kevin Gausman, who has pitched his best baseball on the road this season. Through 64 innings away from Rogers Centre, Gausman sports a 1.83 ERA, a .252 wOBA, and only two of the seven home runs he’s allowed. He’s only faced the Yankees once this season, which came back on April 14 when he went 5 2/3 innings and allowed two runs on six hits and nine strikeouts. Despite getting roughed up in his last start against the Guardians (which came at home), I really like Gausman to keep this Yankees offense at bay to start this game.

It’s no secret that this Yankees offense has stumbled since the calendar turned to August. As a team, they’re slashing .219/.297/.369 with only 56 runs scored this month, which ranks 25th in the Majors. Meanwhile, teams like the Nationals, Cubs, Angels and Pirates all have scored more runs than the Yankees in that span. Gausman is also the toughest the first time through the order, sporting a 1.90 ERA with a .285 wOBA. I like the Jays to have the lead once the fifth inning concludes.

Blue Jays at Yankees
The wager: Kevin Gausman strikeouts over 6.5
Line: +115 (bet $100 to win $115)

When an offense is struggling, strikeouts are usually part of the equation. That’s no different with the Yankees, as they currently boast a 25 percent strikeout percentage in August. That’s the fifth-highest rate in all of baseball, trailing only the Tigers, Reds, Angels and Brewers. As I mentioned, Gausman faced this club back in early April and racked up nine strikeouts in that game.

The Yankees have played 16 games in the month of August and are averaging 9.3 strikeouts per game. While 6.5 isn’t a number that Gausman has exceeded many times this year, doing so in 10 of his 22 starts, I like the appeal of the +115 that we’re getting against a struggling offense. With Gausman pitching his best baseball on the road this season, I think we can get at least seven strikeouts from him tonight.

Rangers at Twins
The wager: Rangers Team Total over 3.5 runs
Line: -120 (bet $100 to win $83)

I like the Rangers’ team total at 3.5 runs tonight against Dylan Bundy. He’s one of the most difficult pitchers to figure out, in my opinion. He’s been better than advertised, as he sports a 4.76 ERA but also a 3.85 xERA. So, in other words, he’s been getting a bit unlucky when he’s taking the mound. However, I do like taking over on the 3.5 runs for the Rangers.

If this was set at 4.5, I wouldn’t be interested in going over, but I think they have a good shot of reaching four. In his start against Texas on July 10, Bundy allowed four runs on six hits and two walks over five innings. The Rangers are just outside MLB’s top 10 teams in runs scored during August, ranking 12th with 66. They’re also slashing .254/.328/.381 as a club with a 105 wRC+ this month.

Where Bundy has really struggled this year is after going through the order the first time. His 3.07 ERA and .284 wOBA the first time through look great, but after that, the wheels often come off. The second time through the order, Bundy has a 5.66 ERA and a .342 wOBA. I think the Rangers can take advantage of that and go over 3.5 runs tonight.

Rangers at Twins
The wager: Byron Buxton over 1.5 bases
Line: +110 (bet $100 to win $110)

Never anything wrong with getting a total bases prop you really like at plus money. That’s what we’re getting tonight with Buxton against Martín Pérez. To his credit, Pérez does an excellent job of keeping the ball on the ground. When you’re inducing ground balls more than half the time (51.7 percent) it certainly limits the damage. However, Buxton is a different breed, and he has some stellar numbers against lefties. On the year, he sports a .393 wOBA with a .357 ISO and a 161 wRC+ against lefties. Those numbers stay nearly consistent at home against lefties, with a .347 wOBA, a .348 ISO, and a 128 wRC+.

Going over 1.5 bases is something he’s done in 37 of the 89 games he’s played, good for 41.5 percent of his season. Before going 0-for-3 on Wednesday against the Royals, Buxton went over 1.5 bases in three straight games, collecting two hits in each of them. Regardless of where he’s hitting tonight, if it’s leadoff or third in the order, he should have at least four shots to go over this mark. Hitting at or near the top of the order at +110 is a play worth making.

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