Should the Padres trade for a catcher?
Analyzing the pros and cons of dealing for a backstop
This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
The Trade Deadline looms four days away, and the Padres have work to do.
At this point, it's extremely likely that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller will trade for an outfielder. The Padres are in dire need of a big-time bat, and their outfield has underperformed for much of the season.
But the Padres' middling offense could use more than one upgrade. Where else, positionally, might they look? Well, they already have an upgrade on the way at shortstop in the form of Fernando Tatis Jr. It's possible they deal for two outfielders. But here's a possibility the team is mulling seriously as the Deadline approaches:
Adding a catcher.
This season, the Padres have gotten decent production behind the plate from their Austin Nola/Jorge Alfaro tandem. San Diego catchers have combined to bat .258/.312/.359—a .671 OPS that ranked 12th in the Majors entering play Thursday. Their 0.9 catcher fWAR ranks 15th.
In short, Padres catchers have been OK. But it's at least worth exploring the option of dealing for a backstop. There are upgrades to be had, most notably the Cubs' Willson Contreras, who is in the final year of his contract and expected to be moved ahead of Tuesday's Deadline.
Here’s the case for and against trading for a catcher:
THE CASE FOR...
Need we remind you of the clout a player like Contreras would bring to the San Diego offense. He's hitting .258/.373/.470 this season. That .843 OPS is a higher mark than any catcher in Padres history, save for 1979 Gene Tenace.
It's also a significant offensive upgrade over the current duo—172 points of OPS to be precise. Plus, while Nola—presumably the primary backstop come playoff time—has handled this pitching staff quite well, he's struggled to throw runners out, catching just 13 percent of base-stealers in each of the past two seasons. The Padres don't want to reach the postseason and find themselves in a scenario where an opponent can run wild on them.
Contreras, while not the world's greatest defensive catcher, still boasts a 25 percent caught-stealing rate that falls in line with the league-average. There's a case to be made that the Padres should make a deal for a catcher simply to solidify that aspect of their game.
Plus, if the Padres were to deal for a No. 1 backstop, it wouldn't necessarily eliminate the contributions of Nola and Alfaro. It would merely provide both with different opportunities.
Nola would likely continue to catch Yu Darvish and his dizzying array of breaking pitches. (Contreras would presumably DH in those games.) Nola has also played a number of different infield spots in the past. Alfaro, meanwhile, has crushed left-handed pitching and could be in position to DH against lefties. At the very least, he'd be a weapon off the bench. And, if the Padres were to add a third catcher to their roster, don't rule out the possibility of Alfaro seeing game action in an outfield corner.
THE CASE AGAINST...
No team has ever won a World Series with a primary catcher it acquired in-season.
Of course, it's flawed logic to suggest that simply because it hasn't happened before, it won't happen in the future. More than anything, that fact merely illustrates just how rare it is that a top-tier catcher even becomes available in-season.
Instead, the case against acquiring a catcher is directly related to the Padres’ overall trade capital. If that weren't an issue, then, absolutely, the Padres should throw some resources at acquiring a backstop. But Preller’s farm system is not as deep as it once was. There are some high-upside young pieces, but that number is limited.
The Padres have bigger issues. No, their catching situation isn’t perfect. But it also isn’t their biggest need. (That would be the outfield.) It also might not be their second biggest need. (That might suddenly be the bullpen, with Taylor Rogers struggling and a number of other arms on the injured list.)
It’s worth asking how much the Padres should realistically be expected to give up for a one-year rental like Contreras. And, sure, there are other catchers available with more years of control. But the Padres still think highly of Luis Campusano. If he’s not dealt over the next week, he’s a focal point of the Padres’ long-term catching plans.
Ultimately—as with any trade—it’ll come down to the cost. The Padres could absolutely get better for the stretch run if they were to trade for a catcher. But will it be worth what they have to give up—in terms of both prospects and opportunity cost? Stay tuned. We’ll find out in the next four days.