Why Webb belongs in NL Cy Young conversation
This story was excerpted from Maria Guardado’s Giants Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
PHOENIX -- Plenty will be at stake when Logan Webb takes the mound for the Giants in Wednesday afternoon’s series finale at Chase Field.
Webb’s primary task will be to fend off a two-game sweep at the hands of the D-backs and keep San Francisco’s flagging playoff hopes alive, though he’ll also have a chance to solidify his status as a dark horse candidate for the National League Cy Young Award.
Padres left-hander Blake Snell has been viewed as the frontrunner for the prize and only strengthened his case by firing seven no-hit innings against the Rockies on Tuesday night, lowering his ERA to a Major League-best 2.33 over 174 innings this year. Snell has been dominant, but he also leads the Majors with 97 walks, an unusual wrinkle that could complicate the race for some NL Cy Young voters.
Other contenders include the Cubs’ Justin Steele, the D-backs’ Zac Gallen, the Braves’ Spencer Strider, the Phillies’ Zack Wheeler, the Mets’ Kodai Senga and Webb, whose candidacy largely centers on the rare level of durability he’s provided at the top of the Giants’ rotation this year. The 26-year-old right-hander entered Wednesday leading the Majors with a career-high 201 innings and ranked fourth in the NL with a 3.31 ERA.
Webb is the only pitcher to reach the 200-inning threshold so far this year and also leads the NL with 15 starts of at least seven innings. His performance has been crucial to the Giants, who have counted on him to eat up innings and help take the load off a bullpen that has frequently been used to fill out a rotation that featured only two traditional starters for much of the season.
“I think innings is a huge factor in this,” manager Gabe Kapler said. “I don’t think Cy Young should just be about rate stats. I think it definitely has to include counting stats. The most notable counting stat should probably be innings because you’re covering those for your team and that makes you valuable to your team.”
Snell is clearly ahead of the pack from a run prevention standpoint, but he hasn’t pitched as deep into games as consistently as Webb, which could end up being another knock against him.
As MLB.com’s Mike Petriello recently wrote, “Webb has pitched the equivalent of [three] additional complete games more work -- innings that might have inflated Snell's runs allowed if he'd had to continue deeper into games to get them.”
Webb is more of a ground-ball pitcher than a strikeout artist and his record is only 10-12 due to poor run support from the Giants, but he still ranks second in bWAR (5.7), fifth in fWAR (4.4) and first in Baseball Prospectus’ WARP (5.0). He didn’t crack the top five in MLB.com’s latest Cy Young poll, but he was listed among the pitchers who received votes and could pick up steam if he finishes strong.
“He’s having a great year,” Kapler said. “It’s challenging because some of the line numbers aren’t reflective of that. He hasn’t gotten much run support. From a win-loss standpoint, obviously, you’d like to have a winning record. That’s really just incumbent on the rest of the club to support that with offensive production and good defense.
“But I think he’s thrown a ton of strikes. He’s been a better strike-thrower than he ever has been in his career, so that’s one way I think he’s leveled up. I think he’s doing a really nice job of mixing his pitches. We’ve seen some development on the changeup. The sinker is still a pretty lethal pitch. He’s been kind of a top-of-the-league starter for several years now.”