Which 0-2 comeback is more likely: Dodgers or Orioles?
We are now through two games in all four division series, and a pair of teams (the Orioles and Dodgers) find themselves down 0-2 and heading on the road to Texas and Arizona, respectively.
In the history of the Division Series in the 2-2-1 format, teams that lose the first two games at home are 2-14. The two teams to pull it off are the 2015 Blue Jays, capped off by Jose Bautista’s epic bat flip against the Rangers, and the 2001 Yankees, who did it against the A’s. (The 2012 Giants also came back from an 0-2 deficit in the NLDS, but they won the final three games in Cincinnati.)
We asked a trio of experts a trio of questions about the teams facing 0-2 deficits and their chances of coming back. Here are their responses.
1. Which team do you think is best equipped to come back?
Anthony Castrovince, National Reporter: The Orioles, for a few reasons. They had 48 comeback wins and a .652 winning percentage in one-run games this year, both tops in the AL. They were 52-29 on the road. They were 6 ½ games back of the Rays in the AL East in early July. They’re resilient, is the point. (Or maybe just too young not to know how to be resilient.) Plus, they’re playing a Rangers team that was strangely streaky this year, capable of some prolonged ruts, including the season-ending one that cost them the AL West. Texas has an iffy bullpen that tied for the MLB lead in blown saves. Crazy things can still happen here. I’m less bullish on the Dodgers’ chances because they are asking an awful lot of their bullpen, given the state of that rotation.
Mark Feinsand, National Reporter: I’ll go with the Dodgers. I was covering the Yankees when they came back against Oakland in 2001, and there are plenty of similarities between that team and this year’s Dodgers. Los Angeles has been through these wars before, playing into October annually. Under Dave Roberts, the Dodgers have been to the World Series three times since 2017, winning it all in 2020. This team isn’t going to go into panic mode. Is it really difficult to see a team with Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and J.D. Martinez coming back to win two straight games to force a Game 5? The Orioles are too young to know what they don’t know, so I don’t think they’ll panic, either, but if there’s a team that can keep a slow heartbeat and take things one day at a time, it’s the Dodgers.
Brent Maguire, Researcher: The Orioles have defied the odds all year long. What’s one more time -- or three more times? Baltimore has been remarkably consistent and has rarely gone on extended losing streaks. According to Elias and MLB.com’s stats guru Sarah Langs, the Orioles have gone 91 consecutive series of two-plus games without being swept -- the third-longest regular-season streak in MLB history. While the playoffs are a different beast, recent history tells us that the Orioles are in good shape to take Game 3. After that, it’s a matter of a team with an AL-leading 101 wins pulling off a couple more. The Orioles have a deep, talented roster on both sides of the ball and have shown a knack for the dramatic -- tying the Reds with 48 comeback wins in the regular season while winning 30 one-run games. And despite the talent that the Dodgers boast, I’m skeptical that they’ll be able to find enough innings to compensate for a starting rotation that’s in a tough spot.
2. If they do come back, the player we’ll be talking about is ...?
Anthony Castrovince: Ryan O’Hearn. Designated for assignment (by the Royals!) in December. DFA’d again by the Orioles in January. Accepts a Triple-A assignment and is cut from Spring Training camp by the O’s in March. Winds up contributing an .801 OPS to a first-place team, then is limited to pinch-hit duties in Games 1 and 2 when the Rangers started lefties. He’ll be back in the lineup for Game 3, and he has all the right biographical elements to be your typical October hero. (Plus, he has that “O” in his name.)
Mark Feinsand: Clayton Kershaw. After his disastrous Game 1 start, we’re certainly going to be talking about the future Hall of Famer if the Dodgers lose. But if they come back to win three straight, chances are they’ll need Kershaw to give them a big start, most likely in Game 4. We all know about Kershaw’s career postseason record - he’s 13-13 with a 4.49 ERA in 39 appearances (32 starts) - but he’s come up with some gems for the Dodgers in October, winning seven starts in which he pitched seven or eight innings while allowing no more than one run. If he gets the ball again, Los Angeles might need that kind of effort to extend its season given the state of its bullpen to this point in the series.
Brent Maguire: Adley Rutschman. Since debuting for the Orioles on May 21, 2022, Baltimore has the fourth-best record (168-116) -- trailing only the Braves, Dodgers and Astros. That’s no coincidence as Rutschman instantly emerged as the franchise-altering superstar that’s sparked Baltimore’s turnaround. Since debuting, Rutschman is tied with Julio Rodríguez for the sixth-most fWAR (10.5) among position players and has been a two-way force with high-level offense (129 OPS+) and defense (+17 Fielding Run Value). He was only on base twice in the first two games of the ALDS but that should change for a guy who got on base 257 times in the regular season (ninth-most in the Majors).
3. Yes or no? At least one of these teams will force a Game 5 back at its home ballpark.
Anthony Castrovince: Yes. As the great Studs Terkel wrote, “Hope Dies Last,” and who am I to poke holes in hope?
Mark Feinsand: Yes. The Orioles were 52-29 on the road this season, while the Dodgers were 47-34. These teams know how to win away from home and have the talent to get the job done. It wouldn't shock me if we see both series go the distance.
Brent Maguire: Yes. Both of these teams are too good to not turn things around to make things interesting. While I’m more confident in Baltimore’s ability to make it happen, I’m not putting it past a team led by Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman to bring the NLDS back to Dodger Stadium.