It’s been barely a week since the Dodgers held their World Series parade, but realize this truth: Walker Buehler isn’t a Dodger, nor is Blake Treinen, nor Teoscar Hernández. Juan Soto isn’t a Yankee, just like Clay Holmes, just like Alex Verdugo. They are members of no organization right now.

That’s because even though it feels like the 2024 season just ended, the truth is that the 2025 season has already begun, or at least the planning for it. So, as we did last year, it’s worth our time to set up the offseason by rating the rosters as they stand today, using 2025 projections and playing time estimates from our friends at FanGraphs, with all free agents already removed. That’s right, Mets fans; until further notice, Pete Alonso is not a part of your 2025 plans.

It’s important, because when looking ahead to next year, projected rosters matter a whole lot more than last year’s win total, mostly because the rosters continually change, and the skill level of players on those rosters changes as they age, too.

Think about it this way: The White Sox aren’t working off a 121-loss season, because that came from a below-average roster that also then had everything possible go wrong, in terms of injury and performance. They’re working off a 2025 roster that is currently projected to be something like 67-95, which isn’t to say “they got 26 wins better!” so much as it is to point out that they’ll likely have contributions from top prospect Colson Montgomery, and more from Luis Robert Jr., and (unless he’s traded) more innings from Garrett Crochet, and probably fewer things like “three top hitters getting hurt rounding the bases almost all at the same time, two weeks into the season.” That helped lead to a lot of losses in 2024. It doesn’t mean anything at all for 2025.

Really, it’s no longer about what guys like Martín Maldonado, Eloy Jiménez and Tim Hill did in 2024, contributing to 121 losses. It doesn’t matter. It’s not the starting point. It’s true for the White Sox. It’s true for everyone.

Here’s where the rosters stood as of Wednesday, keeping in mind that the WAR estimates and rankings below are a day-to-day moving target due to roster moves and other changes.

• Here are the free agents for every team

1. Dodgers (48.6 WAR)

Top free agents: RHP Jack Flaherty, OF Teoscar Hernández, RHP Walker Buehler

Biggest needs: Starting rotation, outfield or shortstop

Surprise! The defending champs, who have won the most games of any team over the last decade, start the winter with the best projected roster. It helps to still have Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Tyler Glasnow, and: oh yes, Shohei Ohtani is expected to pitch again, despite left shoulder surgery. A team that is always good should, spoiler alert, still be good.

The big question, aside from whether they’ll try to add more big-ticket external starting pitching (hello, Roki Sasaki?) or just rely on various injured pitchers returning to health, is how the in-season addition and success of Tommy Edman changes the lineup plans. Already, the Dodgers have said that they expect to move Mookie Betts back to the middle infield, where they also can use Edman, Miguel Rojas and Gavin Lux. That might mean the club focuses more on the outfield, working to bring back Hernández -- or even taking a shot at Juan Soto. Still, given the ability of both Betts and Edman to play the infield or outfield, the Dodgers also retain the flexibility to pursue a shortstop like free agent Willy Adames or trade candidate Bo Bichette.

2. Braves (48.5 WAR)

Top free agents: LHP Max Fried, RHP Charlie Morton, C Travis d'Arnaud

Biggest needs: Starting rotation, shortstop, corner outfield, backup catcher

Pretty much everything went right in 2023. A whole lot went wrong in 2024. Neither version is the “real” Braves, probably, and a lot will simply depend on players rebounding from down years, but their lineup heading into the winter remains extremely talented. That doesn’t mean there’s nothing to be done, obviously. One question is whether they once again entrust shortstop to Orlando Arcia, who had an All-Star first half in 2023 but has hit all of .223/.279/.373 in 228 games since. Expect Adames and Bichette to be linked here, as well.

Like most contenders, another starting pitcher is in order, especially if Fried leaves and/or Morton retires, particularly since Spencer Strider won’t be ready for Opening Day. Getting Sonny Gray to agree to be traded from St. Louis to a contender still near his Tennessee home seems a no-brainer here. There’s also the question of how the corner outfield pieces fall into place, because Ronald Acuña Jr. also won’t be ready for Opening Day as he recovers from knee surgery. Jarred Kelenic didn’t exactly impress in his Atlanta debut, and Ramón Laureano is more of a fourth outfielder than a starter. Entering 2025 with only Michael Harris II as a reliable, healthy outfielder seems inadvisable.

3. Astros (45.9 WAR)

Top free agents: 3B Alex Bregman, LHP Yusei Kikuchi, RHP Justin Verlander

Biggest needs: First base, third base, outfield, starting rotation

It keeps feeling like the end is near for this almost decade-long Astros run, but it hasn’t arrived yet. So if this feels too high – and it does, a little – remember that this team has made the playoffs for eight consecutive seasons. Even without its free agents, Houston still has Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve and Yainer Diaz in the lineup, plus Framber Valdez, Josh Hader, Hunter Brown and more on the mound.

Still, there’s a ton of risk here, particularly if they don’t re-sign Bregman, because Houston already had a semi-disastrous first base situation (projected 26th-best), and all of a sudden third base (projected 27th-best) would be an open issue as well. Those aren’t the only trouble spots in the lineup, because while Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, and Mauricio Dubón all have their uses, you can’t cover both left and center field with them alone. They’ll also need to reinforce the pitching depth, given some key departures and a number of health questions.

4. Orioles (45.8 WAR)

Top free agents: RHP Corbin Burnes, OF Anthony Santander, LHP Danny Coulombe

Biggest needs: Rotation, right-handed slugger, backup catcher, a young player signed to an extension

The actual biggest need might be “understanding why Adley Rutschman completely fell apart in the second half,” but that’s not a Hot Stove issue. For a team that won 91 games and made the playoffs, the Orioles left 2024 with a sour taste in their mouths, and it’s not just because they didn’t win a game against Kansas City in the Wild Card round. It’s because the club played .500 ball for the final three months of the year, around a confusing Trade Deadline, and still hasn’t yet signed any young position player to an extension.

Throw in the fact that Burnes and Santander, two key pieces of last year’s team, are headed off to free agency, and there are a lot of questions to answer here. And yet: It’s still a top-five roster, talent-wise. The key need is at the top of a potentially post-Burnes rotation, where Zach Eflin is a quality starter who isn’t really an ace, and Grayson Rodriguez is a talented young arm who didn’t pitch after July 31 due to injury. With Kyle Bradish likely to miss most of 2025 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, finding a top-of-the-rotation starter is an absolute must. If Santander departs, then adding a righty slugger to a heavily left-handed outfield is a priority as well.

5. Yankees (45 WAR)

Top free agents: OF Juan Soto, 2B Gleyber Torres, RHP Clay Holmes

Biggest needs: First base, center field, an infielder at either second or third, bullpen

Yes, yes, we know: Either they retain Soto, or the winter is a failure. Obviously that’s the only way this offseason gets judged, but he’s not the only need, either. It’s actually the infield that’s a much larger question, because you have Anthony Volpe at shortstop, Jazz Chisholm Jr. at either second or third, and … that’s it. (Anthony Rizzo is a free agent, too.) This wasn’t just the weakest-hitting first base group in the Majors, it was the team’s weakest first base group since 1941, when Johnny Sturm was given 568 PA of .300 slugging in his only Major League season. Two infielders are an absolute must.

So there’s that need, and Soto or not, they absolutely can’t have Aaron Judge playing center field full-time again. Maybe that’s Jasson Domínguez's role, if Soto returns. Maybe it’s someone from outside. Like everyone else, the Yankees could use an arm or two, but the biggest questions for New York this winter are about the lineup – and not just Soto. (But mostly Soto.)

6. Twins (44.5 WAR)

Top free agents: OF Max Kepler, 1B Carlos Santana, INF Kyle Farmer

Biggest needs: Right-handed bats at first or corner outfield; bullpen

The first five teams: Yes, sure, all makes sense. The sixth: Wow, Minnesota, really? A disappointing 2024 turns into a more highly ranked start to 2025 than you’d think, simply because they are not losing much production from the 2024 team. There remains a great deal of talent on this roster, although, as always, it remains difficult to actually rely on Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Royce Lewis to be healthy at the same time. Unlike other teams with a truly massive hole to fill at the moment, the Twins could field a reasonable 2025 lineup at every position and most of a pitching staff right now. If the season began today, they’d be in good shape. (It does not start today.)

That means that as other teams add, and the Twins likely remain relatively quiet on the market, this ranking is likely to drop. They need some kind of right-handed hitter, preferably one in the corner outfield. Like everyone, they could use another bullpen arm or three.

7. Phillies (43.9 WAR)

Top free agents: RHP Carlos Estévez, RHP Jeff Hoffman, RHP Spencer Turnbull

Biggest needs: Center field, bullpen, rotation depth, maybe third base

Despite a disappointing loss to the Mets in the NLDS, this is still a very talented roster that should be considered among baseball’s best, and they’re only losing a few (key, admittedly) relievers. They’ll need to reinforce a bullpen that struggled more than you’d think, and it seems hard to believe they’d go with the Johan Rojas/Brandon Marsh/Austin Hays center/left field situation again. Philadelphia’s outfield as a whole rated just 20th in WAR – and there are going to be some questions about whether they commit to Alec Bohm at third base again, or try to move on from Nick Castellanos. They’d probably like their lineup to chase less. It’s not like there’s nothing to do.

The biggest issue here is that while returning a championship-level core means that they’re coming into 2025 with a great starting point, it’s also a group that’s not getting any younger. You could point to Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Trea Turner and note that all are still performing at high levels. You could also note that each one will be 32 or older in 2025. It’s not exactly now or never, but it’s not that far from it, either.

8. Rangers (42.5 WAR)

Top free agents: RHP Nathan Eovaldi, RHP Max Scherzer, RHP Kirby Yates

Biggest needs: Bullpen, rotation depth, catching depth, outfield

Sometimes they make it easy on us. “You've heard this before, but we're going to pursue pitching,” said president of baseball ops Chris Young. “There's no doubt we're going to need more pitching, both in the rotation and in the bullpen.”

OK, then. Pitching it is. Lots of pitching. A 2025 rotation that might include Jacob deGrom and Kumar Rocker could be a lot of fun, though that doesn’t fix a currently dreadful bullpen (projected 28th) that just lost not only Yates, but also David Robertson, José Leclerc and Andrew Chafin. It’s not just pitching, either, because Texas’ outfield had a mere .299 OBP, which was 23rd in MLB. You’d like to think that Wyatt Langford’s hot finish and a better, healthier year from Evan Carter will help with that, and it should, but Texas will have to decide how much to be worried about a shockingly sudden decline from Adolis García on both sides of the ball.

9. D-backs (42.2 WAR)

Top free agents: 1B Christian Walker, DH Joc Pederson, RHP Paul Sewald

Biggest needs: Bullpen, first base, more bullpen

The 2024 D-backs had a shockingly good offense – they led the Majors in runs scored – especially once Corbin Carroll worked his way past his first-half slump. On the other hand, only four teams, all non-contenders, allowed more runs, which prevented Arizona from making a repeat run to the postseason. It was never boring in the desert, anyway.

But it’s different now, with Walker, Pederson, Randal Grichuk and Josh Bell all free agents, taking a chunk of the offense with them. Much of the pitching improvement hinges on the (not unreasonable) hopes that Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery’s second years in Arizona are a lot more productive than their first, which saw them combine for 167 innings of 5.87 ERA ball. It doesn’t alleviate the need to add some pitching options, but those two should help – particularly since they may also need to venture into the market to replace some offensive production.

10. Mariners (42.1 WAR)

Top free agents: 2B Jorge Polanco, 1B Justin Turner, RHP Yimi García

Biggest needs: Batting, hitting, slugging, power, offense, bop, punch, damage (mostly in the infield)

The Mariners had, and still have, a very strong starting rotation. They also struck out the most times in the Majors and produced the sixth-lowest slugging percentage. That’s how a team that was tied for the lowest ERA in baseball failed to win more than 85 games. This isn’t new, exactly, and it’s at least in part due to their strikeout-inflation-machine of a ballpark. Somehow, though, the Mariners have to find a way to score some runs.

It’s not a lineup without talent, of course. Julio Rodríguez remains a superstar despite his brutal first half, and he could anchor a strong outfield alongside Randy Arozarena, Luke Raley, Mitch Haniger, and – if his shocking post-trade turnaround is for real – Victor Robles. Cal Raleigh might be baseball’s best all-around catcher. The problem, then, is in the infield, particularly after the departures of Polanco and Luis Urías. While they’ll likely give shortstop J.P. Crawford a pass on a down season due to hand and oblique injuries, this team badly needs a boost at two infield spots, if not three.

11. Padres (41.1 WAR)

Top free agents: OF Jurickson Profar, LHP Tanner Scott, SS Ha-Seong Kim

Biggest needs: Starting rotation, left field, catcher, maybe shortstop

Lower than you’d have thought? Us too, honestly. This is, we think, a reflection of a lack of rotation depth behind Dylan Cease and Michael King, especially now that Yu Darvish is 38 years old and Joe Musgrove will miss the 2025 season. They also have no actual left fielder to speak of unless or until Profar returns, and what appears to be a dicey catcher situation, as they wait on teen prospect Ethan Salas. That they still rate well despite all those questions speaks highly of the reliable talent provided by Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado, Cease, King, and a still-dangerous bullpen.

But would you believe this team, of all teams, actually might need a shortstop? It’s possible that Xander Bogaerts simply holds it down, as he did late last season, though it’s at least a little awkward after he was just moved off the position nine months ago. While Padres fans are understandably excited about prospect Leodalis De Vries, he also just turned 18 in October and is at a minimum three years away; it’s unlikely Bogaerts is the shortstop for that entire length of time.

12. Royals (40.8 WAR)

Top free agents: SS Paul DeJong, 2B Adam Frazier, RHP Michael Lorenzen

Biggest needs: The entire lineup outside of shortstop, first base, and catcher; bullpen

Remember: they already made a big move, retaining Michael Wacha on a three-year extension, so the rotation heads into the winter in good shape, projected as baseball’s sixth-best. Don’t forget, too, they’ll have Kyle Wright, who collected down-ballot Cy Young Award support with the 2022 Braves, ready to return after shoulder surgery.

That’s a great place to start. But outside of Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez, is there a single position player from the 2024 Royals you feel strongly about as a starting option for 2025? Maybe the quality defense offered by Kyle Isbel and Maikel Garcia gives them some more run to see if the bats come around; maybe Freddy Fermin takes some more time behind the dish. But the offense KC put out in September was the weakest of any team in any month in 2023-’24, and then they hit only .231/.287/.291 in six postseason games. That September malaise was at least a little about Pasquantino’s absence due to injury, but they’ll need to improve a bottom-three hitting outfield to take that next step.

13. Blue Jays (40.8 WAR)

Free agents: LHP Ryan Yarbrough

Biggest needs: An extension for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Oh, and second/third base, left field, rotation depth, backup catcher, and a totally revamped bullpen. But mostly, Vlad.

Where does one of 2024’s most disappointing teams go from here? They’re stuck in an unenviable position, in that they’re too talented to not try to win, but they have a top-heavy roster with a ton of questions. Just about 50% of the projected WAR here comes from only five players (Guerrero, Kevin Gausman, Alejandro Kirk, Bo Bichette, and Daulton Varsho). Even that assumes that Bichette’s career-worst 2024 was an injury-related fluke, and that Gausman, George Springer and Chris Bassitt can stave off decline at the ages of 34, 35 and 36, respectively.

That’s right: The rotation that has been a strength probably isn’t (ranked 23rd). Throw in the need to completely rework the bullpen, and the need to add at least one big thumping bat to a lineup that had the fifth-fewest homers in the Majors, and this winter will have a great deal to say about the next half-decade of this ballclub. It’s no surprise they’re expected to be involved in the Soto discussions.

14. Rays (39.9 WAR)

Free agents: None

Biggest needs: Catcher, left field, middle-of-the-lineup bat at any position, maybe shortstop

The Rays, again, look to have excellent pitching. No team allowed fewer earned runs in the second half, and they can expect more innings from Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz, and Jeffrey Springs than they got in 2024.

Of course, only the White Sox scored fewer second-half runs, which makes lineup help a priority. Some of that has to come internally; they simply need Josh Lowe, Brandon Lowe, and Christopher Morel to offer more than they did in 2024, and a full season of third baseman Junior Caminero should help, while Dylan Carlson showed some small signs of life after they acquired him. But they badly need a power bat for either outfield or DH, and they desperately need a catcher to pair with Ben Rortvedt. There’s also reason to at least consider if they can improve at shortstop, because even though José Caballero can run (44 steals) and they like Taylor Walls’ defense, neither one has shown to be a Major League caliber bat, combining to hit .212/.283/.314 in 2024.

15. Guardians (39.6 WAR)

Top free agents: RHP Shane Bieber, LHP Matthew Boyd, RHP Alex Cobb

Biggest needs: Starting rotation, outfield, power

Always, forever, from now until the end of time, this team needs to add power. They never actually do it, and it’s fair to wonder if they ever will, because it’s difficult to imagine a team that finished last in hard-hit rate actually getting all the way through October, especially when 2024’s hot start collapsed into a second half with the fourth-weakest OBP and fifth-fewest runs scored. The lineup is simply not good enough – this was true even before the news of David Fry’s elbow surgery – and an outfield bat is an absolute must. Questions may also need to be asked about how many up-the-middle spots (catcher, second base, shortstop) can persist with excellent defense propping up poor offense.

But there’s something different this time around, and it’s that they badly need help in the rotation, which is unusual for a Cleveland team. Tanner Bibee is a solid mid-rotation arm who is miscast as an ace; by some measures, this was a bottom-five rotation, and it’s projected to be the second-weakest in 2025. José Ramírez, Steven Kwan, and all those relievers can get you pretty far, as we just saw. You just can’t get all the way without power or starters.

16. Cubs (38.6 WAR)

Top free agents: RHP Jorge López, LHP Drew Smyly

Biggest needs: Bullpen, catcher, starting rotation

Chicago had one decision made for it, when Cody Bellinger decided to pick up his 2025 option, and an offense that wasn’t good enough in 2024 is now in the odd position of not having as many glaringly obvious open spots as you’d think. That's especially true if you choose to really believe in the second-half surges of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Miguel Amaya. It’s possible that Nico Hoerner’s recovery from arm surgery affects his status and moves some dominoes around, but it’s also possible that they’d have preferred Bellinger to test the market, because they’re now relatively locked into the same lineup they had last year – though they’ll need to add a catcher regardless.

Instead, the focus will be on the mound, where a 26th-ranked bullpen needs a ton of help, and a rotation that has a lot of twos, threes, and fours (they had the fifth-weakest strikeout rate in MLB) could desperately use a bat-missing ace to lead it. There may not be a better fit for someone like Blake Snell.

17. Brewers (38.4 WAR)

Top free agents: SS Willy Adames, RHP Frankie Montas, RHP Colin Rea

Biggest needs: Third base, starting rotation, bullpen

OK, Milwaukee fans, we hear you. You won 93 games. We get it. This feels too low. It’s probably because the projections understandably are being a little conservative on Jackson Chourio, given his youth and slow start to 2024, and because Brandon Woodruff did just miss an entire year with shoulder surgery, and because this club always seems to find a way to outdo low expectations. It’s basically their brand right now. We’d go higher than this, too, though help is needed.

That said: We also don’t have to ignore what a blow it might be for Adames to leave -- even if Joey Ortiz can likely slide over to shortstop -- and Rea had been a big part of the rotation the last two years. Much can change depending on what they do with closer Devin Williams, who remains under team control, yet seems like a very obvious trade candidate either this winter or over the summer. They’ll need one new bat, and probably some reasonable pitching depth as well.

18. Mets (38.2 WAR)

Top free agents: 1B Pete Alonso, LHP Sean Manaea, RHP Luis Severino

Biggest needs: Starting rotation, corner infield, outfield, bullpen

This relatively unimpressive ranking doesn’t take away from the fact that the Mets played extremely well in the latter half of 2024. It just tells you a lot about how much of that talent is no longer committed to the 2025 roster, given the team's whopping 14 free agents, many of them significant contributors to the '24 squad. There’s obviously going to be endless will-they/won’t-they about both Alonso and Soto, and getting one, both, or neither will have a massive impact on the lineup. But for the moment, they have neither, and a lineup that probably features only four guaranteed starters in Franciscos Lindor and Alvarez, Mark Vientos, and Brandon Nimmo.

There’s a lot of work to be done here, and no matter how it shakes out with Alonso and Soto, they’re going to need pitching, and a lot of it. As things stand, their rotation consists of Kodai Senga, who is undeniably talented but made one start in his injury-ruined age-31 regular season, and David Peterson, who had a very nice 2024 but also had a huge decline in strikeout rate and is probably more of a back-end starter. For all the understandable focus on whether Soto and/or Alonso are here next year, they don’t pitch, and so it can’t just be about them. It won’t be nearly enough.

19. Tigers (37.5 WAR)

Free agents: None

Biggest needs: Shortstop, first base, starting pitcher, right field

Team Pitching Chaos had a memorable late-season run to the ALDS, but “one ace starting pitcher and pray” is a much harder model to run over a six-month regular season, so expect the Tigers to find a way to supplement Tarik Skubal – even if Jackson Jobe, Reese Olson, Keider Montero, and Casey Mize would in theory comprise a five-man rotation. But there are at least options there, so the larger questions will be about how they can find some lineup help – preferably right-handed help – to reinforce one of the weakest-slugging offenses in the game.

There’s obviously a strong young trio to build around in Riley Greene, Parker Meadows and Kerry Carpenter, and Jake Rogers’ outstanding catching defense might allow them to look past his weak bat. But really, the questions come down to what you do with three names at very different stages of their careers. 1) Is Javier Báez even worth a roster spot, despite three years and $73 million remaining on his contract? 2) Is late-season hero Trey Sweeney a viable option as a starting shortstop, given that the Dodgers and Yankees each traded him away and he hit only .218/.269/.373 for the Tigers? 3) What on Earth do you make of first baseman Spencer Torkelson, who got demoted to Triple-A and was better – though not great – after his return, leading to a 28th-best first base projection? These questions might define whether the good times keep rolling.

20. Cardinals (37.5 WAR)

Top free agents: 1B Paul Goldschmidt, RHP Lance Lynn, RHP Kyle Gibson

Biggest needs: A way to develop their young hitters; a time machine to 2026

For the first time in forever, the Cardinals are planning to reload more than contend. That probably means it’s less about filling specific lineup holes for 2025, and more about figuring out how to move forward in the years after, which might mean exploring trades of veterans like Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Nolan Arenado, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, and/or Willson Contreras. Or, if they’re really committing to the franchise turnaround, that might even mean moving closer Ryan Helsley, at the peak of his value. We already know Paul Goldschmidt’s time in St. Louis is likely over, and they declined options on Lynn and Gibson. It’s going to be a very different Cardinals team in 2025. This rating is probably lower than 20th by Opening Day – maybe a lot lower.

Without knowing exactly who goes, it’s hard to say which holes need to be filled, but it also doesn’t matter, as they’re likely to commit plenty of playing time to young players like Jordan Walker, Thomas Saggese, and Nolan Gorman to see who’s part of the next good Cardinals team. That’s what success looks like in 2025, really: Good returns on veteran trades, and a whole lot more clarity and direction than they have right now.

21. Red Sox (36.9 WAR)

Top free agents: OF Tyler O'Neill, RHP Nick Pivetta, RHP Kenley Jansen

Biggest need: Starting pitching, bullpen, right-handed power, second base, catcher, improved defense

How do you end up ranking 21st, when your position players are projected as the 24th-best, and your pitchers are 19th? There are very obvious bright spots here – Jarren Duran’s MVP-caliber breakout high among them – but overall, this is a team that just went 81-81 and, barring immediate upgrades, looks to reside in that soft middle of the sport again. The obvious place to target here is the rotation, which ran out of gas as the season went on, and desperately needs a top-of-the-rotation arm, even if Lucas Giolito’s return should add some depth.

The other question is how to improve an offense that was, as it turns out, exactly average. There’s a version of this outfield that could be extremely good, though Ceddanne Rafaela's obvious talents somewhat obscure an unacceptable .274 OBP and sky-high chase rate. O’Neill’s free agency leaves the team without its primary right-handed power bat, so adding some slug from that side – even if it requires a trade of Triston Casas and a shift of Rafael Devers to first – is an absolute must. We hold out hope for Trevor Story to be that guy, but it’s now been five years since his last full season of above-average batting.

22. Giants (35.4 WAR)

Top free agents: LHP Blake Snell, OF Michael Conforto, OF Mark Canha

Biggest needs: Starting rotation, middle infield, first base, left field

Buster Posey’s first winter in charge ought to be an interesting one, mostly because we have little idea how he’ll function, and because he’s starting with a roster that has a lot of room for improvement, particularly with Snell opting out. It’s possibly the most incredible fact of the winter that despite employing Logan Webb, only one team got fewer innings from its rotation than the Giants, and that team – Detroit – actively rejected the entire concept of a starting rotation for two months.

So they’ll need to re-sign or replace Snell, and complement that with additional rotation help. They'll almost certainly need to find a middle infielder, likely a shortstop who can shift Tyler Fitzgerald to second base; Adames might fit well here. They’re almost certainly not just handing left field (projected 26th) to Grant McCray, either. Over the last three seasons, the Giants have won 81, 79, and 80 games, respectively. It will take some work just to maintain that, much less improve upon it.

23. Angels (33.5 WAR)

Top free agents: 2B Brandon Drury, LHP Matt Moore, OF Kevin Pillar

Biggest needs: Starting rotation, third base, bullpen, center field

Coming off the weakest year (.389 winning percentage) in team history, it’s going to take a huge improvement to avoid a franchise-record 10th consecutive losing season – and the Angels have already been aggressive early, trading for Jorge Soler. They also have acquired Scott Kingery, Ryan Noda and Kyle Hendricks, though none are game-changers or maybe even regulars.

First, the good news: this projection is something like an 80-win season, which is within spitting distance of a .500 year, and that’s partially because this roster really does have some interesting young talent. That list includes Zach Neto, Logan O’Hoppe and Nolan Schanuel, with Caden Dana and Christian Moore likely to make contributions in 2025 as well. Mike Trout still exists. The payroll is expected to increase.

The flip side is obvious: Trout hasn’t been consistently healthy for years, to say nothing of Anthony Rendon, and the rotation is currently projected to be baseball’s fourth-weakest, while the bullpen is all of seventh-weakest. It seems unlikely they’re turning former top prospects Mickey Moniak or Jo Adell into performers. If it feels like we’ve been saying “it could be fine if everything goes right” for a decade now, we have, and that was mostly with Shohei Ohtani around. As the projections show, they’re starting from near the bottom again.

24. Athletics (33.3 WAR)

Top free agents: RHP Ross Stripling, LHP Alex Wood

Biggest needs: Starting rotation, third base, bullpen, left field

Obviously, the move to Sacramento for 2025 is the primary story around this organization, but don’t let that overshadow how much quietly impressive baseball they played this summer. The A's put together a .500 second half and had Lawrence Butler and JJ Bleday each post breakout seasons next to Brent Rooker’s second consecutive 30-homer year and Shea Langeliers’s 29-homer season. While there are holes to fill at third and left, at least, this could be a competent lineup in 2025.

On the mound, it helps, obviously, to have Mason Miller at the back of the bullpen, but can the rotation get him any leads to protect? As things stand right now, the A’s have the 30th-projected starting rotation in the Majors. There are things to like about JP Sears, Joey Estes, Mitch Spence and others, but even if the A’s aren’t likely to be shopping in the Corbin Burnes aisle, there’s a clear need for a number of arms to help. GM David Forst was clear-eyed about the likelihood that this comes via trade rather than free agency.

25. Reds (32.1 WAR)

Top free agents: RHP Nick Martinez, 1B Ty France, RHP Jakob Junis

Biggest needs: Corner infield, corner outfield, rotation depth, bullpen

Did the 2024 Reds underperform? Or was this just the roster they had? A little of both, likely, though a great deal of upgrading will be needed to help new manager Terry Francona get this squad back into serious contention. The infield corners are fascinating, because while there are multiple options – Jeimer Candelario, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte among them – they didn’t produce last year, and are projected 23rd (first base) and 28th (third base) in 2025. It’s a good reminder that while internal improvement is reasonable to expect, simply doing nothing is not going to be a winning strategy either.

That’s the same in right field, which is the 25th-best projected group, and even left (22nd), despite Spencer Steer’s 20/20 season, as his below-average defense and just-OK on-base skills dragged down some value. There’s not really an expectation here that Cincinnati will have four new corner bats in 2025 – some of the internal options simply have to be better. It can’t, and won’t, be all returnees from 2024, either.

26. Pirates (32 WAR)

Top free agents: DH Andrew McCutchen, LHP Aroldis Chapman, C Yasmani Grandal

Biggest needs: Bats, everywhere, but especially at first, second, short, and right; bullpen

With Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller anchoring a high-upside rotation – projected as the fifth-best in baseball – there’s a path for the Pirates to make some moves in a relatively wide-open NL Central. The only way that’s going to happen, however, is with the addition of external bats, and we do mean bats plural, meaning at least three, for a team that scored the sixth-fewest runs in MLB. Entering 2025, there are maybe only four spots in the lineup that you aren’t actively trying to upgrade – catcher, third base, left field, and center field – and even that is only if you’re willing to let Ke’Bryan Hayes’ elite defense float his inconsistent bat again.

Otherwise? They don’t have a first baseman, or a middle infield, or a right fielder, or a good-enough DH. This roster is screaming for a free agent like Alonso or Teoscar Hernández, or a rebound trade for a Bichette or Luis Robert Jr. type, plus bullpen help. With this young rotation, the time is now.

27. Marlins (29.8 WAR)

Free agents: None

Biggest needs: Catcher, third base, two outfielders, bullpen

It wasn’t hard to see Miami taking a step back from its 2023 Wild Card berth, considering that team was outscored by 57 runs and then days later learned it would lose ace Sandy Alcantara for all of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery. At this time last year, the Marlins were projected as the 20th-best team. Of course, then they traded Luis Arraez, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Josh Bell, A.J. Puk and Tanner Scott, and Eury Pérez injured his elbow too, and suddenly it became a 100-loss season, ending with the departure of manager Skip Schumaker.

As the 27th-best projected roster rating will show you, there’s a great deal of work to be done, even though they’ll get Alcantara back for much of the season. It starts with the offense, where only the White Sox had a lower OBP, and only the White Sox, Nationals and Rays had fewer homers. Xavier Edwards is the only Marlins hitter with an above-average projection, which is maybe a little unfair to Jake Burger, and while the pitching staff is a projected middle-of-the-pack unit, it comes with just a ton of injury risk, given that Alcantara, Pérez, Braxton Garrett, and Jesús Luzardo all are coming off injury woes.

28. Nationals (27.8 WAR)

Top free agents: LHP Patrick Corbin, 1B/OF Joey Gallo, RHP Trevor Williams

Biggest needs: First base, third base, starting rotation, bullpen, backup catcher

The Nats weren’t the third-weakest team in the game in 2024. They actually played surprisingly interesting baseball, even if their final record (71-91) doesn’t stand out, and they’re not really losing a whole lot to free agency. This low ranking is mostly because some of those wins were banked with the help of veterans who got traded (like Lane Thomas and Jesse Winker), with the team finishing 32-47 over the final three months, and because they have bottom-10 projections at first, third, center, right, rotation, bullpen, and …

… OK, so maybe the roster is a little further away than it seems. On the other hand, with Dylan Crews and James Wood joining Luis Garcia Jr., CJ Abrams, and the defensively elite Jacob Young as building blocks, there is something here. And more prospects, such as Brady House, could be on the way. The time does seem right to add some larger-ticket veterans who can help get this team first to competitiveness, and then to the next level. If that sounds like the time Washington gave Jayson Werth a seven-year deal coming off back-to-back 100-loss seasons, we’d agree.

29. White Sox (24.3 WAR)

Top free agents: RHP Mike Clevinger, RHP Chris Flexen, 3B Yoán Moncada

Biggest needs: Where to start?

Not last! Not, you know, good, but not last. (Remember, again: the projections care about the players here and what they might do in 2025 – not that the 2024 team lost 121 games.) It should go without saying that new manager Will Venable arrives to find a roster that needs improvement basically everywhere, and that contention in 2025 is not exactly the goal. There are really only three questions that matter, right now:

1. Will ace Garrett Crochet get traded? If so, to who, for what?
2. Will center fielder Luis Robert Jr. rebound from a brutal year? If so, when does he get traded?
3. A year from now, which young players show that they’re part of the next good Sox team?

It’s that last question that seems most interesting, and most important. If the 2025 season gives you confidence that Colson Montgomery or Drew Thorpe or Miguel Vargas or Ky Bush or Edgar Quero are going to be contributors, while Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith progress towards the bigs, it can be a successful season. If they don’t? Competitive baseball could be years away on the South Side.

30. Rockies (20.8 WAR)

Free agents: RHP Daniel Bard, C Jacob Stallings

Biggest needs: Pitching, right field, second base

A second consecutive 100-loss season wasn’t without high points, most notably the two-way play of shortstop Ezequiel Tovar and center fielder Brenton Doyle, and the arrival of prospects Jordan Beck and Drew Romo. But there was absolutely no pitching to be had, and more importantly, little indication that anything about the franchise’s direction is changing. It’s somewhat incredible that 3/5 of the projected 2025 rotation were also big parts of the 2018 rotation, which feels like so long ago. A 20 WAR projection is something like a 94-loss season, and that may be optimistic. It might be time to move on from either Ryan McMahon or Brendan Rodgers, though it seems unlikely that will happen. Mostly, it would be nice to see Kris Bryant finally have a good year in Colorado.