Do Padres have resources to wheel and deal?
AJ Cassavell
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WASHINGTON -- Nice time for a four-game winning streak.
The Trade Deadline looms five days away, and the Padres (54-50) are making their case as a contender, having won four straight to move into a virtual tie with the Cardinals (53-49) for the final Wild Card spot in the National League.
The week ahead should be a busy one. Here’s what to expect ahead of Tuesday’s 3 p.m. PT Trade Deadline -- with a prediction for a couple moves that would make sense for the Padres.
Buyers or sellers?
Call them “light buyers.” The Padres aren’t all-in on 2024. But they’re still going for it.
That means they’ll be active. The Padres have plenty of talent on their roster, but some notable flaws, too. It’d be imprudent not to add to the current mix.
What do the Padres need?
Right now, their two biggest needs are glaring: They need a starter and a middle-innings reliever. There's room for debate on the caliber of each. But it would be an unsuccessful Trade Deadline if the Padres weren't able to fortify their rotation and bullpen.
Moving from necessities to luxuries, an additional third pitcher would be useful -- whether starter or reliever. As would another outfielder, perhaps a potential starter in right field who could fall into a bench role when Fernando Tatis Jr. returns from injury.
What do the Padres have to trade?
Less than they usually do around this time of year. That's because San Diego parted with a chunk of its prospect capital to acquire Dylan Cease from the White Sox on March 13 and Luis Arraez from the Marlins on May 4.
The top of San Diego's system remains strong. The club's top four prospects -- Ethan Salas (No. 6 overall prospect), Robby Snelling (No. 45), Dylan Lesko (No. 77) and Leodalis De Vries (No. 79) -- all rank among MLB Pipeline's Top 100 Prospects. But Salas is off-limits, and the Padres are reluctant to deal any of the other three -- particularly because they'd be selling low on Snelling and Lesko, who have struggled lately.
Beyond that quartet, there's a bit of a drop-off. But the next tier still has some intriguing players -- take outfielder Homer Bush Jr. (Padres' No. 8 prospect) or catcher Brandon Valenzuela (No. 11) for example.
How big will the Padres swing?
That depends on the cost. They've been linked with White Sox ace Garrett Crochet for months, but that would probably cost them De Vries, the top international player in this year's class. (Anyone else recall a 17-year-old international shortstop prospect being moved for a starting pitcher in a midseason Padres-White Sox trade?)
Even De Vries might not be enough on his own. Starting pitching is at a premium, and it's a seller's market right now, with so many teams lingering around the fringes of the playoff race.
If Crochet and Detroit's Tarik Skubal are the biggest prizes on the trade market, it's probably likely the Padres acquire an arm or two from the tier below them.
What's a reasonable prediction for the Deadline?
To be clear, this isn’t sourced information. The Padres are being tight-lipped as usual when it comes to their trade targets. This is just an exercise in guessing the types of players to expect, based on my conversations with people in the organization about the team’s needs.
So here goes: I'll say the Padres will trade three of their second-tier prospects -- guys in the No. 5-15-ranked range -- to acquire righty starter Jack Flaherty and lefty reliever Andrew Chafin from Detroit. (Both are free agents after the season.) From there, I’ll say they’re not done adding pitching. They'll package another solid prospect, plus one of their younger, non-leverage bullpen arms, to acquire Nats reliever Kyle Finnegan (who is under control through 2025).
To recap: That's a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter -- a guy capable of starting a playoff game -- plus a reliever of each handedness to slot into the setup innings alongside Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon.
That's probably aiming a bit high, and maybe the cost is steeper than I've suggested, forcing the Padres to deal for lesser players.
But if general manager A.J. Preller can pull it off -- whether it’s those names or other similar-caliber pitchers -- I'd call it a very successful Deadline.