What to expect from MLB's No. 3 overall prospect Crews in big leagues

August 23rd, 2024
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      Another monumental piece of the Nationals’ young core is headed to Washington.

      The Nats are calling up No. 3 overall prospect Dylan Crews to the Major Leagues on Monday, a source told MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato. He will debut at home against the Yankees and is expected to join former Top 5 overall prospect James Wood in the same outfield.

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      The 2023 second overall pick slashed .272/.343/.455 with 13 homers and 25 steals over 99 games between Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A Rochester before the move. He joined the higher level in mid-June and caught fire with a .333/.406/.583 line and four homers over his last 14 games before the news.

      During his 48-game tenure at the Minors’ top level, Crews was much better playing away from Rochester (.305/.387/.533, six homers) than he was in Red Wings home games (.235/.298/.392).

      The defining characteristic of the 22-year-old outfielder’s Triple-A stint -- much as it was during his time as a Golden Spikes Award winner and national champion at LSU -- was his ability to hit the ball hard.

      Starting from a slightly open stance and utilizing a slight toe tap to stay in rhythm, he generated a 112.6 mph max exit velocity that would rank second among Nationals Major Leaguers, trailing only Joey Meneses’ 114.2. (Note: Wood topped out at 115.3 mph in Triple-A before his own callup.) Crews’ 106.3 mph EV ranks in the 90th percentile among Triple-A hitters, and his 43.2 percent hard-hit rate ranks in the 83rd among batters with at least 200 plate appearances.

      Like Wood before him, Crews hasn’t been quite as adept at pulling the ball in the air in the Minors, which has dulled the power output somewhat, and he posted a 46.4 percent ground-ball rate with Rochester. That said, he’s shown he can muscle the ball to all fields all the same; two of his eight Triple-A homers went the opposite way to right-center.

      The 5-foot-11 right-handed slugger built himself into one of the best Draft prospects in recent memory, going behind only Pirates phenom and fellow LSU star Paul Skenes last year, because of the way he improved his swing decisions and contact rate over time on campus. He showed similar growth on the pro side this summer, cutting his strikeout rate from 23.7 percent at Double-A to 17.2 percent at Triple-A, and pummeled pitches inside the zone with Rochester, hitting .338 with a .592 slugging percentage and just a 13.6 percent whiff rate on such offerings. (Triple-A averages are .296, .504 and 18.5 percent respectively.)

      That said, he could get swing-happy as he closed in on the Majors, chasing pitches outside of the zone at 29.4 percent rate at Triple-A. His highest chase rates came against sinkers (40.9 percent), sliders (34.5) and sweepers (33.3). But given Crews’ ability to adjust the longer he is exposed to a level’s pitching, this could be a fixable issue over time.

      The bat alone would make Crews a special prospect, but he brings more to the Washington roster than that. He is at least a plus runner who can flirt with the occasional sub-4-second home-to-first time from the right side when he really busts out of the box, and he should be at least a 30-steal threat in the Majors with his wheels and efficiency on the basepaths.

      That same speed, along with good instincts and jumps, makes him a quality center fielder, and he has enough arm strength to keep runners honest from the grass. It was notable that Crews became Rochester’s primary center fielder when he first joined the Wings, and Wood slid over to left during their brief time together as Triple-A teammates.

      However, Washington has employed Jacob Young, the current Major League leader across all positions at 18 Outs Above Average, in the middle of the grass, and it seems unlikely the big club would move such a valuable piece, even for a talented rookie. Crews played right field in his two most recent games for Rochester before Friday’s news, perhaps in preparation for next week’s move.

      A Gold Glove candidate in center. Two potential five-tool superstars in the corners. There could be a lot of joy on the horizon in the nation’s capital.

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      Sam Dykstra is a reporter for MiLB.com and MLB.com. Follow and interact with him on Bluesky @SamDykstraMiLB, and listen to him on his weekly podcast The Show Before the Show.