What to expect from Edward Cabrera
Unlike the other Marlins right-handers on MLB Pipeline's Top 100 Prospects list, Edward Cabrera doesn't have a signature pitch. While he doesn't have an offering the equal of Max Meyer's slider or Sixto Sánchez's changeup, his ability to miss bats with three potential plus weapons and improving control make him the organization's top pitching prospect.
Cabrera likely would have made his big league debut in 2020 had he not been bothered with minor shoulder soreness. He almost certainly would have been up earlier this year had he not been dealing with biceps inflammation in the spring. He won't have to wait any longer, now that Miami has announced plans to start him Wednesday night against the Nationals.
Ranked No. 30 on the Top 100, Cabrera first became eligible to turn pro out of the Dominican Republic during the 2014-15 international class, but went unsigned and didn't land a $100,000 bonus from the Marlins until July 2015. His fastball touched the low 90s at that point and began to steadily climb after he made his U.S. debut in 2016. He quickly became one of the better prospects in what was then a thin Miami farm system but didn't really begin to take off until 2019, when he advanced to Double-A at age 21.
Cabrera's fastball remains his best pitch, operating at 93-97 mph and peaking in triple-digit territory, and the heavy life and downhill plane he creates with his 6-foot-5 frame enhance his velocity. He generates a lot of weak groundball contact and his strikeout rate has risen in each of his five pro seasons. He's averaging 13.5 whiffs per nine innings this year while posting a 2.93 ERA and .205 opponent average in 13 starts between Low-A, Double-A and Triple-A after missing the first month of the Minor League season.
The 23-year-old Cabrera has improved his secondary pitches as he has gained more experience. His slider is now a legitimate plus pitch that parks at 82-85 mph with nice bite and depth. He's doing a better job of achieving velocity separation between his fastball and changeup, which shows some signs of becoming a plus offering as well. He trusts his changeup, which sits in the mid-80s with some fade and sink.
Both are small sample sizes, but Cabrera logged the best walk rate of his career (1.7 per nine innings) in his first seven starts of the year at Low-A and Double-A and his worst (5.8 per nine) in his six starts at Triple-A. He generally has average control, having learned that he doesn't need to overthrow to create premium stuff, but he'll need to refine his ability to locate his pitches to reach his ceiling as a No. 2 or 3 starter.
Cabrera will make his debut against fellow Top 100 Prospect Josiah Gray (No. 54) of the Nationals, who acquired the latter from the Dodgers as part of the Trea Turner/Max Scherzer trade last month. It's only the second time since MLB.com began ranking prospects in 2004 that one preseason Top 100 pitcher has broken into the Majors with a start against another. The first came in 2013, when James Paxton began his big league career with the Mariners against Chris Archer and the Rays on Sept. 7.
Unlike a year ago, the Marlins aren't in contention, so Cabrera is making an audition for a spot in their 2022 rotation rather than contributing to a playoff push. At some point next year, Miami could have four current Top 100 Prospects making starts for them in Cabrera, Meyer, Sánchez and left-hander Jake Eder.