Here’s everything at stake today (and maybe tomorrow)

Here’s everything at stake today (and maybe tomorrow)

September 29th, 2024

The final scheduled day of the regular season has arrived, and there is plenty at stake.

From a team perspective, there's still a battle for the final two NL Wild Card spots as well as for seeding in the AL Wild Card race. As enticing as these playoff races are, you can argue that the individual storylines are just as interesting: Look no further than what pulled off last week.

With this in mind, here’s what’s at stake during the final hours of the season.

1. The (Wild) NL Wild Card race

Friday night brought some clarity to the AL playoff field, as the Royals and Tigers clinched the final two Wild Card spots, while the Twins were eliminated. Kansas City and Detroit join the Orioles as the three AL Wild Card teams, to go with the three division winners: the Yankees, Guardians and Astros.

However, the NL Wild Card race is still going right down to the wire, with the Braves, D-backs and Mets battling for the final two spots. Depending on how games go on Sunday, it’s possible the playoff field will be determined at the end of today’s action, but we still may need Monday’s doubleheader between the Mets and Braves in Atlanta before things are finalized. Here is a closer look at how that race breaks down:

NL Wild Card

Already clinched: Padres (No. 4 seed)
In playoff position: Braves (currently hold No. 5 seed), Mets (No. 6 seed)
Still alive: D-backs

Record
- Braves 88-71
- Mets 87-72
- D-backs 88-73

Remaining schedule
- Mets at MIL (1), at ATL (2)^
- D-backs vs. SD (1)
- Braves vs. KC (1), vs. NYM (2)^

^The final two Mets-Braves games in Atlanta, originally scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, were rained out. They are now set to be played in a doubleheader on Monday.

Tiebreakers
- The Braves and Mets both own tiebreakers over the D-backs.
- The Braves lead their season series against the Mets, 6-5. If Atlanta wins at least one half of Monday's doubleheader, it will clinch the tiebreaker between the teams. The Mets would need to sweep it.
- If the three teams tie for those final two spots, either the Braves or Mets would claim the No. 5 seed, depending on which club clinches the tiebreaker over the other in Monday's doubleheader. (That team would then hold tiebreakers over both of its Wild Card competitors.) Either the Mets or Braves would then win the head-to-head tiebreaker against the D-backs for the No. 6 seed.

What needs to happen?
For a full breakdown of every possible scenario based on the Braves', D-backs' and Mets' games on Sunday, click here.

2. The top playoff seeds

Entering September, three teams were vying for the top two spots in each league. With the Orioles and Brewers scuffling in September, however, the top spots came down to two teams in each league -- it was just a matter of who would take the No. 1 overall spot to secure home-field advantage through the League Championship Series and potentially the World Series.

That matter was settled once and for all on Saturday, as the Dodgers and Yankees clinched their respective leagues' top seeds courtesy of the Phillies' 6-3 loss to the Nationals and the Guardians' 4-3 loss to the Astros. The Dodgers clinched MLB's best regular-season record: If they reach the World Series, they will have home-field advantage.

3. Wild Card Series seeding

Despite Baltimore’s struggles this month, the Orioles clinched the top AL Wild Card spot with a win on Friday, claiming the No. 4 seed. The only remaining question on the AL side now is how the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds will fall between the Royals and Tigers, with Detroit currently one game ahead but Kansas City holding the tiebreaker between the teams. The No. 5 seed will head to Baltimore for the Wild Card Series, while the No. 6 seed will head to Houston.

In the NL, the Padres have embarked on an incredible run that’s clinched them the first Wild Card spot -- but that still leaves the Braves, Mets and D-backs vying for the No. 5 and 6 seeds. The Padres are locked in as the No. 4 seed, which means they will host the No. 5 seed, while the Brewers (locked in at No. 3) will host the No. 6 seed.

All three games (if necessary) of each of the Wild Card Series are played at the home park of the higher seed.

4. Ohtani making Triple Crown bid; Judge to fall short

MLB hasn’t seen a batting Triple Crown winner -- leading the league in homers, RBIs and batting average -- since in 2012, but Ohtani has an outside shot to do it.

With home run (54) and RBI (130) titles well in hand, Ohtani (.310 batting average) would need a huge final game Sunday to catch (.314) for his first batting title.

The Yankees' , meanwhile, came close to a Triple Crown in the American League. Judge enters Sunday leading the AL (and MLB) in homers (58) and RBIs (144) with the third-best batting average (.322), too far to catch (.332 average) in the race for the AL batting title.

5. José Ramírez chasing 40-40 ... and 40-40-40

Even with nothing left for his team to play for on Sunday, the Guardians superstar third baseman still has plenty on the line. He's entering the regular-season finale against Houston with 39 home runs and 41 steals -- one home run away from becoming the seventh member of the exclusive 40-homer/40-steal club.

As if that wasn’t enough to monitor in Sunday’s season finale, Ramírez also has 39 doubles on the season. A 40-40-40 season is almost unheard of, considering Soriano (2006) is the only player in MLB history to boast this on his résumé.

6. and approach Triple Crown history

Sale and Skubal are very likely to take home Cy Young Award honors in their respective leagues. What's more, Sale and Skubal are very likely to become the fourth pair of pitchers to win the pitching Triple Crown -- the league leader in ERA, strikeouts and wins -- in each league.

Skubal (2.39 ERA, 228 strikeouts and 18 wins) has the AL Triple Crown sewn up. Sale (2.38 ERA, 225 strikeouts and 18 wins) is almost there, though he could conceivably cede the NL ERA lead to Zack Wheeler (2.57) if he gets shelled in a potential start in Monday's doubleheader against the Mets.

If Sale holds on, he and Skubal could join and (2011), and (1924) and Johnson and (1918) as the only pairs of pitchers to win the Triple Crown in the same season.

Sale also has a chance to become the first pitcher since in 2006 to lead MLB in all three categories in a full season. ( did it in the shortened 2020 campaign.)

7. Ohtani pushing the HR-SB bar even higher

After joining the 40-40 club on a walk-off grand slam last month, Ohtani became the first member of the 50-50 club last week in dramatic fashion. Needing a pair of home runs and a stolen base to reach 50-50, Ohtani proceeded to go 6-for-6 with three home runs, two stolen bases and 10 RBIs in what was certainly one of the best individual performances of all time.

With one game to go, Ohtani has a chance to continue his otherworldly season and push the limits of what was perceived as possible.

With 54 homers and 58 steals, Ohtani is a lock to finish among MLB's top two in both categories, something that hasn't been done in more than a century. Before 2024, the only players to finish among MLB's top two in home runs and stolen bases were in 1908 and in 1909. (But don't let Ohtani's brilliance completely overshadow the fact that Cleveland's José Ramírez is knocking on the 40-40 door, with 39 homers and 41 steals of his own.)

In case you forgot, Ohtani is also a world-class pitcher recovering from elbow surgery and might even be an option to pitch this year in the playoffs.

8. ERA history for Clase

had already established himself as one of the top relievers in the sport, but what he’s doing this year is nearly unprecedented. Clase has a microscopic 0.61 ERA across 74 1/3 innings and 74 appearances, putting him on track to do something four pitchers have done. If Clase’s ERA sticks, he’d become the fifth pitcher with an ERA of 0.75 or lower in 50 or more innings, joining (2016), (2012), (1990) and Rob Murphy (1986).

After leading the Majors in saves in 2022 (42) and ‘23 (44), Clase (47 saves) is only two behind the Cardinals' for the MLB lead this year. He won't be able to reach Helsley's mark with just one game remaining, but Clase came close to becoming the first pitcher to lead the Majors in saves in three straight seasons since the stat became official in 1969.

9. ’s chase of a batting title with a third team, which has never happened before

Arraez has already made history by becoming the first player to win American League and National League batting titles in consecutive seasons. But the Padres star now has the chance to do something even more stunning. Leading the NL in batting at .314 in 2024, four points ahead of Ohtani, Arraez has an excellent shot at winning his third batting title in three years -- all with different teams!

That’s never happened before, as Arraez is just the eighth player to even win batting titles with two teams. Trades sending him from the Twins to the Marlins to the Padres have given him the chance for a third straight batting crown with another club, and Arraez has made the most of his opportunity. The 2022 AL and 2023 NL batting champion didn’t hit .400 well into May like he did last year with Miami, but Arraez has been consistently productive at the plate (and quite hard to strike out, too). Barring a big Sunday from Ohtani, more history awaits Arraez and San Diego.

NOTABLE FEATS ALREADY REACHED

Ohtani reaches 400 total bases

Ohtani made even more history, believe it or not. Along with his 50-50 season, Ohtani reached 400 total bases on the season on Thursday night against the Padres – something that hadn't happened since Sammy Sosa (425), Luis Gonzalez (419), Barry Bonds (411) and Todd Helton (402) each accomplished the feat in 2001.

Ohtani's surge to the top of the total bases leaderboard was fueled in no small part by his historic 6-for-6 day against the Marlins on Sept. 19. It got another boost on Sept. 22, when Ohtani collected four hits, including a game-tying home run in the ninth inning, before he finished the job in a division-clinching win over San Diego.

As for Judge, he was on pace for 400 total bases for much of the season but has trailed off in recent weeks and is now a toss-up to reach the milestone. After going 0-for-5 with five strikeouts on Saturday, Judge still has 392 total bases and is now on pace for 394.

The 2024 White Sox vs. the 1962 Mets

The White Sox have made some unfortunate history. Chicago lost its 121st game on Friday, surpassing the 1962 Mets' long-held record for the most single-season losses in the Modern Era.

The White Sox needed to win their final six games of the season to avoid surpassing those 1962 Mets, and they got halfway there, sweeping the Angels to improve to 39-120 before taking that historic 121st loss against the Tigers in Game 160.