How can Blue Jays go from good to great?
Keegan Matheson
@KeeganMathesonThis story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson's Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
TORONTO -- The moment the World Series ends, the clock begins to tick on the MLB offseason.
The Blue Jays don’t have a long shopping list. But as this organization looks to make the jump from good to great, each move will be important. Money matters, too, as this young core grows more expensive alongside the major contracts added in recent years.
Looking ahead, here’s what you need to know:
Which players are free agents?
It’s a short list. Ross Stripling, David Phelps and Jackie Bradley Jr. are the only free agents on the Blue Jays’ 40-man roster this offseason.
Are any of them likely to receive qualifying offers and what is the deadline?
That’s unlikely. Stripling is coming off an outstanding season, posting a 3.01 ERA over 134 1/3 innings after stepping into the rotation full-time. But the qualifying offer would leave the Blue Jays strapped for cash elsewhere.
Which players have options, what’s the dollar figure and impact on payroll, and when does it need to be decided upon?
The lone option on this roster belongs to Anthony Bass, whom the Blue Jays acquired at the Trade Deadline from the Marlins. Bass’ option for 2023 is $3 million with a $1 million buyout, so this should be a simple yes for the Blue Jays.
Who might be a non-tender candidate -- and when does the club have to make that decision?
The Blue Jays will have a decision to make with Raimel Tapia, who is projected by Cot’s Baseball Contracts to earn $5.75 million in arbitration. Tapia had his moments in ’22 and this number should still be doable, but it’s not automatic.
Elsewhere, Cavan Biggio is projected at $3 million in what should be the most important year of his career. Trevor Richards ($2.4 million), Bradley Zimmer ($1.45 million) and Trent Thornton ($1.05 million) are on that non-tender line.
Who needs to be added to the 40-man roster this winter to avoid the Rule 5 Draft?
Projection: Orelvis Martinez, Gabriel Martinez, Horwitz, Barger, Zulueta, Hernandez.
How might they create roster spots to protect players from the Rule 5 Draft?
Between Rule 5 protections and free agency, the Blue Jays will be up against a roster crunch. That’s good news with a deep 40-man roster. Some candidates to be removed from the 40-man roster include left-handers Matt Gage, Foster Griffin, Anthony Kay and Tayler Saucedo, right-handers Casey Lawrence and Thornton and infielder Vinny Capra.
What kind of help do they need and will they be active in free agency? Whom might they target?
The Blue Jays can hit, but bullpen and rotation help are priorities. The organization will target swing-and-miss stuff with relievers, which has been a weakness in recent years.
In the rotation, at least one legitimate starter is needed, but two would look better. The Blue Jays won’t be able to spend like they have in the past two offseasons, so free agency is a possible avenue if they can find a veteran willing to accept a short-term deal at a high dollar value. Otherwise, the trade market would be more lucrative.
Whom might they be willing to trade?
Teoscar Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. are both free agents after the ’23 season -- and each would satisfy an “MLB-level piece” in a trade. Otherwise, look to the catcher position, where Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno make up one of the deepest, most talented groups in Major League Baseball.