Vlad Jr. has sites set on dad's Hall of Fame credentials

July 15th, 2024

TORONTO -- Did you know that ’s dad played baseball?

The story was told one million times in one million ways as Vladdy came up through the Minor Leagues, baseball’s No. 1 prospect who carried the hopes of the Blue Jays with him. That story finally exhausted itself, but as the younger Guerrero has established himself in the big leagues and become a father himself, the All-Star Game is the annual opportunity to revisit it.

That’s right where Guerrero’s mind went when he was selected to his fourth consecutive All-Star Game this year as the AL starter at first base.

“This is one more accomplishment, and of course it’s one more closer to my dad,” Guerrero said through a club interpreter. “He has nine All-Star Games, so I’m getting close to him. That’s my goal.”

Vladdy’s four All-Star Game appearances are now five back of his father, who has nine. At just 25 years old, he should have no problem taking a run at that number. Each have won the All-Star Game MVP, but Vlad Jr. was the youngest to ever do it. Each have won the Home Run Derby once, but Vlad Jr. set a Derby record with 91 home runs in his runner-up performance in 2019. Again, the kid has the edge.

This isn’t just about Midsummer Classics, though.

“Not just All-Star Games, but everything,” Guerrero said. “Everything. I want to be like him in everything.”

The Minor Leagues

Both Senior and Junior have 1,262 plate appearances in the Minor Leagues, can you believe that? A chunk of Vlad Sr.’s came later in his career, whether he was rehabbing or playing out those final days with the Blue Jays’ Single-A and Triple-A affiliates in 2012, but there’s some incredible symmetry in the numbers.

Vlad Jr.: .331 / .414 / .531 (.945 OPS) -- 44 HR, 209 RBIs
Vlad Sr.: .346 / .403 / .588 (.992 OPS) -- 50 HR, 201 RBIs

The door’s closed on the Minor Leagues for these two, unless Vlad Jr. needs some rehab games through his career or Vlad Sr. attempts a comeback at 50, but the long race is on in the big leagues.

The Major Leagues

This is where we can start to frame the type of path the younger Guerrero is on. It’s no longer the path we expected after his near-MVP season in 2021 (he’s still one behind his dad in that category), but in his sixth season, we have enough of a sample to project forward.

Home runs: Each took exactly 248 games to hit their 50th home run, another remarkable piece of symmetry between father and son. When Vlad Jr. hit his 40th home run of the 2021 season on Sept. 6, that also made he and his father just the second father-son duo in MLB history to both join the 40-homer club, joining Prince Fielder and Cecil Fielder.

They’ve criss-crossed on different numbers since then, too. Both Senior and Junior hit their 87th home runs in their 403rd career game. They can’t seem to shake one another.

Let’s zoom out, though. To catch his father’s 449 career home runs, Vladdy (144 HR) would need to play in another 1,599 games if he continues to hit home runs at this exact pace. Even if Vladdy can play 150 games per season, that’s another 11 full years, and he’d need some more peak seasons like ‘21 to keep his pace alive. It’s going to be a steep hill to 450.

Base hits: Vlad Sr.’s 2,590 hits rank 87th in MLB history, so Vlad Jr. is staring up another mountain here, especially with a career .280 average that’s well below his father’s (.318).

With 813 hits to date, if Vlad. Jr. continues to collect them at this exact rate (H/G), he’d need to play in 1,650 more games. That’s close to the home run pace, too, meaning that Vladdy will need to play well into his mid-30s -- well and healthy -- to take a run at the two key counting stats of his father.

Of course, there’s one thing Vladdy could do that his father never did: win a World Series. The elder Guerrero made it to the 2010 World Series with the Rangers, where they lost to the Giants, but one of those big, shiny rings would help Vlad Jr. end those conversations around the dinner table in an instant.

For now, the early days of the journey continue. Vladdy is out of his father’s shadow, finding his own footing after his early brilliance and the lessons that followed. Let’s check back in at the 2030 All-Star Game.