Wells' struggles underscore Orioles' Deadline needs

As young hurlers approach innings highs, pitching appears a likely target for AL East leaders

July 30th, 2023

BALTIMORE -- ’ innings total continues to go up. His season, on the other hand, has turned a bit sideways.

An American League All-Star candidate during the first half, Wells was the most reliable member of the Orioles’ rotation for nearly four months. Now, the 28-year-old right-hander is struggling, a development that could even impact Baltimore’s plans ahead of the Trade Deadline, which will arrive Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET.

On Saturday night, Wells made another quick exit. He lasted only 2 2/3 innings and allowed three runs -- via home runs by Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge -- in the Orioles’ 8-3 loss to the Yankees at Camden Yards. It marked the third straight start in which Wells was unable to complete five innings -- something he did in each of his first 18 appearances of the year.

Those initial 18 outings all came before the All-Star break, at which point Wells had a 3.18 ERA and an MLB-best 0.93 WHIP. In his first three starts of the second half, he has yielded 11 runs over nine innings for an 11.00 ERA.

“You’re going to have some rough starts,” Wells said. “That’s part of the job, right? We all have tough days at work. It’s still a long season. We’ve got a lot of baseball left to play, and right now, that’s all I’m focused on, is continuing every turn in the rotation just making sure that I’m improving.”

The biggest concern regarding Wells is how much he has already pitched this year. His 113 2/3 innings have exceeded his total from last season by 10 innings. They’re also the second most he has thrown in any year of his pro career, behind only his 119 1/3 innings in the Twins’ farm system in 2018 -- before he didn’t pitch in ‘19 (Tommy John surgery) and ‘20 (canceled Minor League season).

Wells isn’t the only young Baltimore starter nearing a pro career high in innings. Dean Kremer (115 2/3) is 18 2/3 shy, while Kyle Bradish (109) is 36 1/3 away. Grayson Rodriguez, meanwhile, has pitched a career-high 103 2/3 innings.

General manager Mike Elias said Friday that the starters’ workloads are “becoming more of a conversation” among the Orioles’ front office and coaching staff, and something that the team continues to monitor.

“We’re trying to be mindful of indicators that they might be exhibiting that that might be reason to pull back, other than just sort of the academic concept of, like, ‘Oh hey, look at how many innings this guy’s thrown. Let’s back that off,’” Elias said. “There’s really not a ton of science, or any science, there. We try to use common sense, we try to use our expertise.”

With the Trade Deadline rapidly approaching, Baltimore (63-41 and in first place in the AL East) should attempt to bolster its pitching staff to better position itself for a deep postseason run. In recent weeks, it seemed more probable the Orioles would primarily target relievers, as their rotation was in solid shape with Wells, Bradish, Kremer, Rodriguez and Kyle Gibson.

It’s unlikely the Orioles will target any pitcher with a huge salary (such as the Mets’ Justin Verlander), but there are other more cost-efficient starters on the market. According to MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi, Baltimore has shown interest in Detroit All-Star right-hander Michael Lorenzen. Other pitchers featured in trade rumors have included St. Louis hurlers Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery.

But if the Orioles add a starting pitcher, then one will have to be bumped from the rotation.

“I don’t know that a single member of our rotation right now wants to go leave the rotation in some way, shape or form, so there’s that, too,” Elias said. “I mean, they’re having the seasons of their lives. They’re competing. The team’s in first.”

Is Wells’ tough three-start stretch enough cause for concern for Baltimore to make a change? He’s having issues with his command (13 walks in 21 innings over five July starts), and his velocity was down Saturday, when his four-seam fastball averaged 91.6 mph, per Statcast -- nearly a full mph below his season average of 92.5. He threw only one pitch at 93 or higher, but he said he feels fine physically.

Or should Wells continue to start because of the track record he established in the first half? Because the Orioles are trying to win a pennant, they may have a greater urgency to retool their pitching staff, whether that means moving Wells to the bullpen or shifting to a six-man rotation to manage innings.

When asked if the team may consider skipping Wells’ next scheduled outing (Thursday at Toronto), manager Brandon Hyde was noncommittal.

“We’re going to be talking about a lot of things here coming up,” Hyde said. “Obviously, we’re in a weird week, and he’s had a tough time his last few starts, so I think there’s going to be discussions going on.”