Twins' breathing room runs out as AL Wild Card moves into tie

September 19th, 2024

CLEVELAND -- The Twins can no longer repeat as American League Central champions, though that had long already seemed a foregone conclusion. More significantly, the fight for their playoff lives has fully caught up to them, as the race for the final Wild Card spot is now tied.

A second consecutive walk-off loss to the Guardians -- this time, Thursday’s 3-2 defeat in 10 innings on an Andrés Giménez single -- completed the erasure of what had once appeared to be a seemingly insurmountable lead for the AL’s final playoff berth, with the Twins falling even with the red-hot Tigers in the standings due to their 20th loss in their last 30 games.

“It's crazy. I mean, we're just trying to restart and go from there,” Matt Wallner said. “If you're looking at it from the outside, the odds probably aren't in our favor just with how they've been going and how we've been going. So something's got to change.”

The task that lies ahead is now laid bare: The Twins (80-73) must outplay the Tigers (80-73) in the nine games that remain in the regular season, with Minnesota at least holding the tiebreaker between the two teams.

But, as Wallner indicated, the Twins and Tigers are trending in vastly different directions. Minnesota is 10-20 since this collapse began in earnest when they blew a 4-0 lead in Texas on Aug. 18, the third-worst record in baseball in that span, ahead of only the Angels and White Sox.

In that same span, the Tigers are an MLB-best 20-9, owners of the best staff ERA in the Majors (2.65) -- while a depleted Twins pitching staff has slumped to the worst ERA in the AL (4.67). Detroit’s run differential in that stretch is plus-44; the Twins sport a minus-37. The largest lead the Twins have had over the Tigers this season was 11 games, on Aug. 5 and Aug. 9-10. The largest cushion they've had overall was 5 1/2 games, most recently on Sept. 5, when they were the second Wild Card (half a game up) and the Tigers and Mariners were each five games out of a playoff spot.

The Twins acknowledge that they’ve been looking at the standings as their lead dwindled, taking them from their peak at a 95.8% playoff probability, per FanGraphs, on Sept. 2, down to 62.9% after Thursday’s game.

Doesn’t matter anymore. The nine games that remain are all that matter. They have Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa back now, and regardless of the depletion of their bullpen, they just have to believe, stop talking about winning, and actually find a way to win.

“At the end of the day, we still believe we're a playoff-contending team,” Simeon Woods Richardson said. “If we believe that, then we play these games hard and we play these games out by out, pitch by pitch. … We're a pretty damn good ballclub.”

There’s a chance Kansas City also re-enters the fray. In the bigger picture, three division rivals are likely playing for the AL’s final two playoff spots, considering the recent backslide of the Royals (82-71), whose cushion for the No. 5 seed is only at two games above both the Twins and Tigers due to Kansas City’s own active four-game losing streak.

Minnesota would win a three-team tiebreaker between those clubs, if needed.

Veteran infielder Kyle Farmer has spoken in the last week of the Twins’ need to act like they’re chasing a playoff spot, not trying to not lose a spot.

No need to act now -- and they hope that’s what finally flips the switch.

“We're not looking in the rearview mirror anymore,” Wallner said. It's actually a [fight] now. You've got to come out on top. Hopefully this leads to a changed attitude.”

The Twins did their best to bend but not break as they played the Guardians into extra innings for a second consecutive game despite being outhit, 10-3, in regulation, pulling off numerous bullpen escapes to keep the game tied, 2-2.

But once things seemingly lined up for their stars to seize the moment, they missed their opportunity, as Correa popped out to foul territory and Buxton lofted a fly ball to right field with the bases loaded in the top of the 10th inning. Caleb Thielbar allowed the Giménez liner to right field in the bottom of the frame, securing Cleveland’s own playoff berth.

For the Twins to follow, it’s now or never.

“It’s pretty straight -- we’ve got to go win baseball games,” Ryan Jeffers said. “It’s as simple as that. We say the same thing about these games, and we didn’t do it. We’ve got to turn the page to Boston and just try to win those games. That’s all we can do at this point, is go out there and try and win those games.”