5 questions facing Twins for 2022
FORT MYERS, Fla. -- The Twins finally have their superstar starting shortstop Carlos Correa on the field as he continues his delayed ramp-up to the regular season, now less than two weeks away. They have their vacancy in the starting rotation sorted out at last, with Chris Archer in the mix on a one-year deal.
The moving pieces in the roster picture might finally have come to a rest, but things are by no means completely settled.
Here are five questions that remain to be answered before the Twins break camp and head north to Minneapolis for Opening Day.
1. Can this unusual bench configuration work?
A typical bench involves some sort of true backup center fielder and true backup shortstop, but the Twins' current roster has neither. As things stand, the primary backup to Correa at shortstop is likely starting second baseman Jorge Polanco, while the primary backup to Byron Buxton in center field is likely to be starting right fielder Max Kepler. Is this sustainable?
It might have to be. The Twins managed fine with Andrelton Simmons as shortstop and Polanco occasionally sliding over as backup last season, especially with Luis Arraez around to step in as second baseman when needed. Kepler is certainly better in right field, but he can similarly slide over to center for a game or two -- or longer -- if needed. The flexibility provided by Arraez and Nick Gordon certainly helps, particularly in the infield.
The problem arises if Correa or Buxton gets injured -- which, given their histories, is certainly a consideration. The only true backup center fielder on the 40-man roster is Gilberto Celestino, who was clearly not ready for the big leagues last season, and the only true backup shortstop is Royce Lewis, the organization's top prospect, who has missed the last two full seasons of live game action and remains a true wild card whose development could be hindered by rushing him out of necessity.
Would it help the Twins for a non-roster player -- say, Jake Cave or Tim Beckham -- to make the roster, giving them true backup options at those positions? They'll have to decide that in the time remaining before Opening Day.
2. How limited will the starting pitchers be in April?
With exactly 10 days remaining until Opening Day on April 7 against the Mariners, possible Opening Day starter Sonny Gray (though manager Rocco Baldelli hasn't announced as much) took the mound in a game for the first time this spring on Monday afternoon, throwing 44 pitches in three innings. It's clear that he won't be ready to throw a normal-length start in his season debut -- and neither will his rotation-mates.
Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Dylan Bundy have also thrown three innings apiece in their last outings, and Archer is said to have been up to 40-50 pitches before signing. If the Twins stay on their normal spring ramp-up regimen of increasing each starter's workload by one inning each start, most would be ramped up to five innings by Opening Day -- though the club could still opt to be more cautious.
Baldelli has noted that the "vast majority" of his relievers will need to be stretched out to throw two or more innings by the end of spring, even with the potential for 28-man rosters come April. How much of the load will they need to bear?
3. Is Jhoan Duran ready to be a big leaguer?
There appear to be five leverage options in the bullpen right now: Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Jorge Alcala, Joe Smith and Caleb Thielbar. Could Duran join that group as soon as Opening Day?
The organization's No. 6 prospect, per MLB Pipeline, seems to have the stuff to do it. He's been lighting up the radar gun by routinely eclipsing 100 mph several times per outing this spring, and with no indication that the Twins are preparing him as a starter, his stuff could continue to play up to that level -- and perhaps more -- in shorter stints out of the bullpen during the regular season.
That level of heat (and don't forget the unique "splinker," a splitter-sinker hybrid) is certainly good enough to do some damage in the Majors at some point, and Baldelli has said not to "close the conversation" on Duran's ability to crack the Opening Day roster. Can he be another option in the biggest situations -- and if so, how soon?
4. Who will fill out the bullpen depth?
Duran is part of a bullpen picture that appears largely muddled beyond the aforementioned core leverage group. With a 28-man roster likely indicating 13 position players and 15 pitchers, the Twins will need some combination of five relievers from the non-leverage group to fill out their depth.
Cody Stashak had some success in 2019 and '20 but suffered from underperformance and injury last season, appearing to be a true wild card in terms of expected production. Jharel Cotton is a newcomer with limited big league success in the past. Lewis Thorpe and Griffin Jax are converted starters, with the latter's stuff appearing to play up a lot in shorter stints but the former out of Minor League options.
Then, there's Jovani Moran, who got a cup of coffee in the Majors last season but struggled in those five appearances; a trio of former Twins no longer on the 40-man roster in Devin Smeltzer, Juan Minaya and Danny Coulombe; and non-roster newcomer Jake Faria. Which five of those 10 will make the cut? Stashak, Cotton, Thorpe, Jax, Duran and Moran are on the 40-man roster, which should help.
5. What will the third base split look like?
These sorts of questions always have a way of working themselves out once the season gets underway and injuries start taking their toll, but for now, the Twins have a pair of good third basemen who need playing time in Gio Urshela and Luis Arraez, and no easy way to demarcate that playing time.
Urshela is the better defender and has more pop, while Arraez will hit for better contact and average, particularly against right-handed pitching. It's tough because Correa and Polanco are everyday fixtures at shortstop and second base, respectively, while Urshela has relatively neutral platoon splits for his career, meaning it might not be quite as simple as playing Arraez against righties and Urshela against lefties.
There won't even be a ton of consistent playing time at designated hitter, because the Twins plan to use a rotation through the position to keep guys fresh. Both third basemen could be everyday players on many teams, but there are too many decent players for too few positions on the Twins' roster as of this moment. It's not a bad problem to have, but Baldelli will need to feel out a balance.