Which pitcher could round out Twins' staff in 2023?

December 13th, 2022

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Every offseason, it’s tough to avoid the chorus coming from all directions for the Twins to seek pitching -- but this winter might be the exception to that rule, given where the Minnesota roster currently stands.

With a full starting rotation and a nearly full bullpen (on paper and given health), depth pitching is much less of a glaring need now than it was during past offseasons, when the Twins could often barely fill out a full starting rotation until they signed the likes of J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy to hold down the fort until their prospects developed.

Things are different right now. Let’s take a look at how the pitching staff currently looks entering 2023 -- and where the Twins might add to make further impact.

Rotation: Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober

Depth options: Josh Winder, Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson, Chris Paddack

There’s no such thing as too much starting pitching, as the Twins have shown through their injury issues across the past few seasons. This group certainly has injury concerns, as Gray was held to 119 2/3 innings by recurring hamstring issues, Mahle made only four starts following his midseason acquisition due to recurring right shoulder fatigue, Maeda will be making his return from Tommy John surgery and Ober missed most of 2022 with groin issues.

Still, considering both the quality and depth of this group, I’ve said at points this fall that the Twins don’t need to raise the floor of their staff; the way to make an impact would be to raise the ceiling by making a true front-end acquisition like Carlos Rodón -- or, if reports that Rodón seeks a six-year or seven-year deal are accurate, perhaps a next-tier option like Nathan Eovaldi.

What could that look like? If the Twins were to add a starter of that caliber, they could run a six-man rotation to start the year, as they did in 2022, and the extra rest would likely help the pitchers limited in workload last season. The surplus would also give the Twins some flexibility for maintenance IL stints, if needed, for Maeda -- or perhaps even to move a pitcher via trade if that would help bring back an arm of more impact.

Bullpen: Jhoan Duran, Jorge López, Griffin Jax, Jorge Alcala, Caleb Thielbar, Jovani Moran, Trevor Megill, Emilio Pagán

On paper, this is actually a full bullpen with pretty solid upside, and in fact, in terms of raw stuff, this might be the Twins’ best group in recent memory. They have four pitchers in here capable of throwing 100 mph (Duran, López, Alcala and Megill), a rock-solid left-hander in Thielbar, a rock-solid first-year reliever gaining experience in Jax and another high-upside up-and-comer in Moran.

Additional depth could never hurt (a Michael Fulmer-type could certainly bring some veteran stability), but when Pagán is arguably the seventh or eighth reliever in a bullpen instead of being relied upon for high-leverage innings, that can be a low-risk, high-reward play for a group that already has the makings of a deep leverage corps in Duran, López, Jax, Alcala and Thielbar.

This bullpen has firepower, it has two lefties and it has a clear bullpen ace in Duran, who just put up one of the best relief seasons in team history. The only thing it might lack is veteran relief experience, as mentioned above, but that appears a low priority given this roster construction.