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In five days, the Twins’ first playoff roster since 2020 will be locked in -- but there are several factors that could impact the group the Twins take into the American League Wild Card Series.

Complicating matters is the fact the Twins still have no idea who they’ll face in the first round, thanks to the messy AL Wild Card race. Seattle, Toronto and Houston are within two games of each other as they vie for the final two playoff spots in a battle that could go down to the final day of the regular season.

For starters, let’s consider the following players to be locks for the first round:

Pitchers (10): Pablo López, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda, Jhoan Duran, Brock Stewart, Griffin Jax, Emilio Pagán, Caleb Thielbar, Louie Varland

Hitters (12): Christian Vázquez, Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff, Donovan Solano, Edouard Julien, Carlos Correa, Jorge Polanco, Kyle Farmer, Willi Castro, Matt Wallner, Michael A. Taylor, Max Kepler

From there, let’s take a look at what could impact the Twins’ 26-man playoff roster, and how those factors could determine who will fill the four spots that remain.

1. Does Chris Paddack look the part?

Paddack’s long-awaited season debut on Tuesday brought plenty of positives -- but also some questions. His stuff played way up, as promised. In two innings, his fastball touched 99 mph, the hardest he’s thrown in the Majors, with the changeup, curveball and slider looking the part at various points.

On the other hand, he allowed four consecutive baserunners to open his second inning, and the ability to throw multiple innings if needed would be part of Paddack’s appeal for a postseason roster spot. There’s a good chance he might only get one more outing in the regular season to show more consistency -- but regardless, the raw stuff playing up might already have been good enough to get him a spot.

If yes: Paddack gets a spot
If no: Perhaps Josh Winder, Dallas Keuchel, or, less likely, Jorge Alcala, could be options

2. What will the pitcher-position player split be?
2a. Will the Twins need a second lefty in the bullpen?

There’s absolutely no reason for the Twins to take 13 pitchers into a three-game series, especially since they’re likely to be starting three trustworthy starting pitchers, with up to three essential piggyback options on the roster in Varland, Maeda and Paddack.

So, the question here is if the Twins are fine adding just Paddack on top of the 10 locks above, or if they’d take another pitcher to make it 12 in total. That might be either Kody Funderburk or, less likely, Keuchel -- and part of that could depend on the first-round matchup.

For instance, if the Twins were to match up against the Astros, whose lineup boasts three formidable left-handed hitters -- Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker and Yordan Álvarez -- that could perhaps warrant taking another lefty in addition to Thielbar in the bullpen. If it were Seattle or Toronto, the Twins might be able to manage with just Thielbar.

If 11 pitchers: No more, with two more position players
If 12 pitchers/lefty needed: Funderburk/Keuchel gets a spot, with one more position player

Whether they need one or two more position players at this point, they’d likely be selecting from this group, depending on health and need: Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, Andrew Stevenson and Jordan Luplow.

3. Is Lewis healthy?

If Lewis’ hamstring strain heals enough for him to play, he’ll be on the roster. It’s that simple. If not, the Twins have some decisions to make.

They’d first have to choose between Farmer and Castro to start at third base. If they want to start Castro to keep Farmer as a matchup-based righty bench bat, perhaps they’d be inclined to add Stevenson as a pinch-running option, since Castro would be in the starting lineup.

But if the Twins are to face a lefty-heavy pitching staff with Lewis down, Luplow serves as an extra righty bat to match up.

4. Is Buxton healthy?

This is a true wild card, with what’s expected to be a last-minute decision dictated by how Buxton’s knee continues to respond to side activity in the coming days -- and how much the Twins can trust Buxton to contribute, considering he last appeared in an MLB game on Aug. 1. He’s only had 14 Minor League plate appearances since then.

Essentially, the question becomes this: Considering Luplow has already shown this season that he can hit lefties acceptably, and Stevenson’s defensive and baserunning value is obvious, can Buxton show enough to supplant either of them on a playoff roster -- especially with limited roster space?