5 biggest offseason questions for the Twins

October 25th, 2022

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The canvas is wide open for the Twins’ front office this offseason, as they have a slew of cost-controlled pitching and depth at most positions around the diamond. With Carlos Correa expected to come off the books, there’s payroll flexibility, too. So, what are the big questions that could shape this offseason?

1. Who will play shortstop?

The Twins also need to find a catcher to fill the half of the timeshare left behind by Gary Sánchez, but the greater intrigue is at shortstop, namely because of the void that will loom large with the expected departure of Correa -- unless the Twins can outbid the competition and agree to a long-term deal unlike any that has been seen in franchise history.

Unless the Twins pull a surprise by dipping into the deep end of the market (where Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson await), their Opening Day shortstop could be another stopgap option while they wait for Royce Lewis to get healthy or for Brooks Lee to graduate to the Majors. Elvis Andrus and José Iglesias would be the top options here.

2. Will they add to the starting rotation?

The Twins haven’t fared well in seeking rotation depth in free agency, as dalliances with Matt Shoemaker, J.A. Happ, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer all proved ineffective. Things are different this offseason, as depth is already in the organization, with Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Josh Winder, Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson, Cole Sands and (eventually) Chris Paddack in the mix.

With all that depth and a handful of frontline options (Maeda, Mahle, Gray and Ryan) already present, the way to still make a difference would be to target a splashy starter, the caliber of Carlos Rodón, Clayton Kershaw or Jacob deGrom.

3. How can they stay healthier?

Some of the Twins’ absurdly comprehensive injuries from the ‘22 season were unavoidable. But many persisted or took longer to heal than hoped, leading them to part ways with head athletic trainer Michael Salazar following the season. Can they do anything to ensure ‘23 will be different?

Recurring injuries to key players like Byron Buxton (knee), Gray (hamstring), Mahle (shoulder), Winder (shoulder) Ober (groin), Alex Kirilloff (wrist) and Trevor Larnach (core) -- among others -- completely changed the ‘22 outlook. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey spoke of better offseason programming to get players in Spring Training in better shape -- and they’ll either need to hope that was a huge aberration or make changes to ensure better luck.

4. Is this it for Urshela or Kepler?

The youth movement is in full swing in the Twin Cities, with the Twins having fielded the second-youngest lineup in the American League in ‘22, by weighted average age. With a host of youngsters continuing to push for consistent playing time, could veterans in that group -- namely Gio Urshela or Max Kepler -- be gone by Opening Day?

Urshela is bound for his final season of arbitration, with Cot’s Baseball Contracts projecting an $8.45 million salary. Kepler is due a guaranteed $8.5 million. That would make them the third- and fourth-highest-paid players on the team. Urshela was both solid and durable -- but Jose Miranda is more comfortable at third base. Kepler’s defense is still solid despite his offensive struggles -- but Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner have also pushed for playing time as lefty bats in corner outfield spots.

The call on Urshela is a non-tender decision, while moving Kepler would require a trade.

5. How much will they spend?

But here’s the fundamental, underlying question behind all of this: With few hugely pressing needs outside of shortstop and catcher, how aggressive will the Twins be in making significant financial commitments to players of major impact to spend all the money that will now be freed up?

With Correa, Miguel Sanó, Archer and Bundy likely to come off the books, the Twins only have $46.9 million in guaranteed contracts for ‘23 at the moment. Factor in arbitration projections and that still only gets them to just over $85 million, plus all of the pre-arbitration salaries they’ll need to pay. Their ‘22 Opening Day payroll was $134 million. How close to that will they get?