FAQ: What to watch for in Twins' offseason
MINNEAPOLIS -- As the Twins turn the page on a challenging 2021 season, they'll have plenty of work to do over the coming months to rebound from a last-place finish in the American League Central amid the expected success of the White Sox, the pitching staff of Cleveland and the up-and-coming Tigers.
That work will begin in earnest in the coming days, as several important deadlines for various transactions to set the stage for the offseason will arrive within five days of the completion of the World Series -- and after that, the Twins will get to business addressing Byron Buxton's future and the state of the pitching staff.
What should Twins fans be looking for as the offseason gets underway? Let's take a look.
Which players are free agents?
Right-hander Michael Pineda and shortstop Andrelton Simmons are Minnesota's only impending free agents.
Are any of them likely to receive qualifying offers, and what is the deadline for that?
Both Pineda and Simmons are eligible, but it's unlikely that either will be extended the qualifying offer of a one-year deal worth $18.4 million (the mean salary of MLB's 125 highest-paid players).
Teams must extend the qualifying offer to eligible players within five days of the conclusion of the World Series, and players have 10 days to accept or reject the offer.
Could any impending free agents return to the team?
It wouldn't be too surprising to see either Pineda or Simmons back with the Twins in 2022.
Despite missing significant time in parts of two seasons to a suspension, Pineda has been one of the team's most consistent starters since he joined the rotation in 2019. He owns a 3.80 ERA with Minnesota, with four or fewer earned runs allowed in 48 of his 53 starts. The Twins have several holes to fill in the starting rotation, and Pineda is respected in the clubhouse and likely to be relatively affordable.
Simmons was an offensive liability in 2021, posting a .558 OPS and 56 wRC+ in 451 plate appearances, but his defense at shortstop still provided plenty of value, with his 16 outs above average ranking sixth among qualified fielders. Considering the youth of the pitching staff, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey indicated at the end of the season that the Twins wouldn't close the door on a reunion given the club's need for a stopgap at shortstop.
Which players have options, what's the dollar figure and impact on payroll and when does it need to be decided upon?
Alex Colomé is the only player with an upcoming option decision. It's a $5.5 million mutual option with a $1.25 million buyout that needs to be decided within five days of the conclusion of the World Series.
In the unlikely scenario that Colomé declines his end of the option, the Twins wouldn't be on the hook for the buyout. If the team declines the option, the veteran reliever would be owed his buyout following a difficult season in which he posted a 4.15 ERA due to a rough April.
Who might be a non-tender candidate, and when does the club have to make that decision?
There are no clear non-tender candidates on the roster ahead of the Dec. 1 deadline. Left-handed bullpen ace Taylor Rogers, who is due a raise from his $6 million salary in 2021, is the closest to a borderline case as he enters his fourth year of arbitration eligibility.
Considering Rogers is a leader in the clubhouse and one of the game's dominant relievers, it could make more sense for the Twins to tender him a contract and later explore possible trade options if the 2022 season turns out to be another challenging one.
Who needs to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid the Rule 5 Draft, and do the Twins have a crunch for roster spots?
Minnesota will assuredly be tight on roster spots. Even after their first round of roster adjustments in the days immediately following the regular season, the Twins still have to reinstate eight players from the 60-day injured list within the fifth day following the World Series, which would already bring their total to 40.
That's not to mention the top prospects who will need to be added to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft, including breakout infielder Jose Miranda (No. 8), SS Royce Lewis (No. 1) and pitching prospects Josh Winder (No. 9), Cole Sands (No. 19) and Chris Vallimont (No. 21).
If so, how might that be resolved, and when does that need to be set?
Reserve rosters across the Major and Minor League levels to protect prospects from the Rule 5 Draft must be set by Nov. 19. Some tough decisions could be in place around the 40-man roster, with players like Willians Astudillo, Jake Cave, Rob Refsnyder, Kyle Garlick, Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe potentially on the bubble.
What kind of help do the Twins need and will they be active in free agency? Who might they target?
The Twins' most significant focus this offseason, by far, will revolve around pitching, with only two spots in the starting rotation seemingly in safe hands -- and those are between two rookies with a combined 25 career starts in Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan.
Otherwise, the club has to fill in the remainder of their rotation through free agency and trade as they have only young, less proven arms like Smeltzer, Thorpe, Griffin Jax, Charlie Barnes, Randy Dobnak, Drew Strotman and Jhoan Duran available as existing rotation depth. It's tough to see the Twins going after the biggest names in the market, but this front office has a track record of signing veterans with proven track records or riskier players with perceived upside.
Beyond that, they also need another stopgap shortstop to hold down the position while Lewis prepares for the Majors, as well as another reliever or two to bolster the late-inning corps likely to be headlined by Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Jorge Alcala and Caleb Thielbar.
Who might they be willing to trade?
The biggest question of the offseason will revolve around Buxton's contract status and whether the two sides can agree to an extension, and, if no deal gets done, whether the Twins would shop him around to recoup value ahead of his walk year. A similar question, to a lesser extent, revolves around Rogers, who is also entering his walk year and could generate a significant return as a premier left-handed reliever.
The Twins also have redundancies on their roster. Considering the glut of young outfielders, it could make sense to move Max Kepler, who has center-field ability, a track record of power and a team-friendly contract. Could the emergence of Nick Gordon as a utility option and the impending big league arrival of Miranda mean someone like Luis Arraez could be on the table for a substantial pitching acquisition? Have the Twins seen enough from Ryan Jeffers to explore suitors for Mitch Garver?
Don't be surprised if the Twins address some of their pitching needs this way, recalling their trade of former top pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol for Kenta Maeda before the 2020 campaign.
Where do the Twins and Buxton stand entering the offseason?
Though the Twins couldn't reach an agreement on an extension with Buxton ahead of the July 30 Trade Deadline, the star center fielder said that he hoped to continue his career in Minnesota beyond 2022, his final year before he hits free agency. Twins leadership has maintained throughout the process that they will continue talks with Buxton's camp.
The two sides have yet to find a middle ground, which was always going to be tough given Buxton’s well-documented injury history vs. the outfielder’s desire to be paid for his upside. Considering there was no agreement in July, will anything be different now? Only time will tell.
"When you're in-season, sometimes, those dialogues are different than they are in the offseason," Falvey said during the final week of the regular season. "There's a lot of other considerations at that point, and you're further along in the process. We've just always maintained open dialogue, with not just Byron's agent, but a number of agents for players on our team. I would anticipate that we'll have the same."
Which players will be unavailable to start the 2022 season?
Among the big league players who finished the season on the injured list, only Maeda (Tommy John surgery) is expected to be sidelined.
Significantly, the Twins haven't reported any setbacks for Alex Kirilloff (right wrist surgery), and leadership has also said it expects close-to-normal offseasons from prospect pitchers Duran, Winder and Matt Canterino, who were all injured in the Minors. Blayne Enlow, who underwent Tommy John surgery, is expected to be out of the picture.