The best pitching staffs post-Deadline are ...
Pitching tends to rule October, and pitching tends to rule the Trade Deadline.
The list of teams with a perceived pitching need of one kind or another in advance of Wednesday’s final flourish of deals was extraordinary. The list of teams who satisfied those needs was … not. The impact arms of Marcus Stroman and Trevor Bauer went to teams not readily counted as contenders, and the impact arms of Noah Syndergaard, Mike Minor, Edwin Díaz, Felipe Vázquez, Zack Wheeler and others didn’t move at all.
So now the conversation about the five teams best-equipped for the October arms race is complicated -- even if the top spot, in the wake of the Astros’ stunning acquisition of Zack Greinke, is not.
To be clear here, this conversation is taking total staffs -- rotations and bullpens -- into account. And to be considered for this list, a team had to be within three games of a playoff spot at the conclusion of the Trade Deadline (sorry, Mets and Reds).
With all that said, here is my very-much-up-for-debate top five.
1. Astros
They could probably occupy the first three spots on this list because, well, look at the first three spots of this new-look rotation. How many pitchers in baseball this year have at least 140 innings, an ERA+ of 150 or higher (50 percent better than league average or higher) and a WHIP of 1.00 or lower? Just three. Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke and Gerrit Cole (in whatever order you choose to list them).
Yes, bullpens ate up almost exactly half of all postseason innings last year. And the 2011 Phillies, 2014 Tigers and a bevy of Braves teams are evidence that great rotations can be overcome in short series. But dang. With the way Wade Miley has thrown the ball this year and with the newly acquired Aaron Sanchez and his high-spin stuff a good bet to capitalize on the Astros’ analytical environment, the Astros are crazy good up top and crazy deep in this area, and that depth could be utilized to improve what is already a very, very good bullpen (fourth in MLB in relief ERA).
2. Dodgers
The industry assumption was that the Dodgers were going to do something substantial this week to address the back end of their bullpen. They came out with … Jedd Gyorko?
As is often the case with this disciplined organization, prospect preservation commanded the day. But that doesn’t alleviate the questions or concerns about Kenley Jansen, Joe Kelly and others.
So why is L.A. on this list? Well, look, we’re still talking about a pitching staff with the best ERA (3.42) and the second-best strikeout-minus-walk rate (18.6 percent) in baseball. And while I certainly think the Dodgers coulda shoulda been more aggressive at this Deadline, the rotation depth beyond obvious October starters Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Walker Buehler means the likes of Kenta Maeda and/or Ross Stripling could add value to the postseason bullpen. The optics weren’t great Wednesday, but this team is still pretty great.
3. Indians
Trading Trevor Bauer, who was arguably their most talented starting pitcher, might have the odd effect of making this ballclub better because of what it brought back. But it absolutely did not make the pitching staff better. Even in a big step down from his breakthrough 2018, Bauer was an impact arm (125 ERA+).
The Indians, though, can survive that loss and maintain an argument to be on this list because of the pending return of Corey Kluber, who could begin a rehab assignment from his broken forearm next week, the possible return of Carlos Carrasco and the who-knows-what-to-expect-of-this upside of Danny Salazar, who will make his first Major League appearance since 2017 on Thursday night against the Astros.
All-Star Game MVP Shane Bieber and strikeout menace Mike Clevinger have helped the Indians adjust to unexpected losses in the rotation this year, and the Brad Hand-anchored bullpen, which has surprisingly posted the best relief ERA in baseball (3.23), is good enough to back them up.
4. Braves
The attrition rate can be real with young arms. Mike Soroka had a 1.38 ERA in his first 10 starts and a 4.10 in his next eight. Max Fried had a 2.96 ERA in his first 10 starts and a 5.64 mark in his next 10. That – and one of the worst walk rates in the league -- makes this an admittedly iffy pick. The Braves added Dallas Keuchel to the rotation in June but did not make another rotation move before the close of business on Wednesday.
But no team was busier in the bullpen market in the days leading up to the Deadline. The Braves reeled in Shane Greene (1.18 ERA in 38 innings), Mark Melancon (3.50 ERA in 46 1/3 innings) and Chris Martin (3.08 ERA in 38 innings). Those are all potentially impact acquisitions to a relief crew that had shown vast improvement from some April ugliness, and my gut says the Braves got more bullpen bang than the equally busy rival Nationals.
5. Nationals
None of us knows how much better the Nationals' bullpen will be moving forward. But hey, at least it’s different.
Washington needed something different for a unit that, beyond Sean Doolittle, has been an unmitigated disaster this season, to the tune of a 5.97 ERA. Daniel Hudson, Roenis Elias and Hunter Strickland have a shot at stabilizing that situation.
The Nats are listed here because general manager Mike Rizzo has turned that weakness into a strength in summer swap seasons past, so we’ll extend at least a little benefit of the doubt. More to the point, the Max Scherzer (190 ERA+), Stephen Strasburg (141) and Patrick Corbin (142) triple-threat in the rotation is a real force, if and only if Scherzer’s back cooperates (and because we are fans of greatness, we will cross our fingers and toes that it does).
“Why isn’t my favorite team listed??!??”
Brewers: Though depleted in the rotation, the Brewers’ bullpen is a known October asset, but there’s some concern that it could wear itself down by that point. Will be very interesting to see how much Jordan Lyles, Drew Pomeranz, Ray Black and Jake Faria move the needle.
Yankees: Where have you gone, Luis Severino? Yankee Nation turns its lonely eyes to you. (That said, the bullpen alone does earn the Yanks real consideration for this list.)
Twins: Though not at the level it was in April and May, this is still a really solid staff. But they struck out on a starting upgrade, and it’s hard not to wonder if the Sam Dyson acquisition is enough for the bullpen.
Cardinals: It feels like this unit is on the upswing, but even Cards fans would admit the lack of an impact add at this Deadline was a bummer.
Cubs: With a 6.75 ERA and 1.69 WHIP, Craig Kimbrel has not been the bullpen savior they needed so far, though it’s great to see Yu Darvish on the upswing.
Red Sox: The rotation has regressed, and the bullpen issue was not addressed.
Rays: We shouldn’t put it past them to piece it all together, but the staff as a whole has regressed the last couple months and the Blake Snell surgery hurts.
A’s: The Tanner Roark pickup should help, but Frankie Montas’ suspension robbed the A’s of their biggest rotation weapon and Blake Treinen isn’t the force he was in ’18.
Phillies: Jason Vargas could be a solid addition, but the 4.62 staff ERA doesn’t carry much weight in this discussion.
Giants: They kept Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith, but subtracted setup man Sam Dyson.