These Top 100 prospects' stocks could soar with 1 tool upgrade
Our new 2023 Top 100 Prospects list came out a couple of weeks ago, so now the Pipeline Inbox is overflowing with questions about when we'll present our organization Top 30s. The plan is to unveil them a division at a time, beginning on Feb. 27. And to answer another popular inquiry, that will be the first time that players signed as part of the 2023 international class will be eligible for our rankings.
Now let's tackle some specific prospect questions …
If you could upgrade one prospect outside the Top 50 and replace a tool to make it plus, who would it be? -- @JSpencer_24
I'm giving James' question an unequivocal 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale. Incredibly thought-provoking.
We discussed this on the latest Pipeline Podcast, and my immediate response was to take a tooled-up position player with hittability questions. My choice was Brewers outfielder Joey Wiemer, who has plus-plus raw power and arm strength, plus speed and solid center-field skills. He batted just .256 with a 27 percent strikeout rate in Double-A and Triple-A last year, but if we could make him a 60 hitter, he'd give Milwaukee a second Jackson Chourio with a better arm.
But I have to give credit to Podcast cohort Jonathan Mayo for coming up with a better candidate. He went with Pirates catcher Henry Davis, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 Draft.
There's little doubt that Davis is equipped to hit for power and average and he has one of the strongest arms in the Minors. If we could erase concerns about his receiving ability and long-term future behind the plate by transforming him from a below-average to a plus defender, he'd challenge Francisco Álvarez and Diego Cartaya as the game's best catching prospect.
From a pitching standpoint, Nationals right-hander Cade Cavalli is the obvious answer. He can run his fastball to 100 mph, destroy hitters with his power curveball and flash a plus slider and changeup, but he also has averaged 4.0 walks per nine innings as a pro. If we upgraded him from fringy to plus control, his combination of stuff and strikes would rival those of the baseball's top pitching prospects: Andrew Painter (Phillies), Grayson Rodriguez (Orioles) and Eury Pérez (Marlins).
In your best guess, who will be the top 3 prospects around this time in 2024? -- @mattherr07
It's likely that the first seven prospects on the new Top 100 will graduate to the big leagues this season, so next year's list should have a distinctly different look. The Orioles have had two recent No. 1 overall prospects in Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, and shortstop Jackson Holliday will give them a third on our 2024 Top 100.
The son of seven-time All-Star Matt Holliday, Jackson had the best combination of hitting ability and all-around tools in the 2022 Draft, where Baltimore took him with the top pick. He should have solid to plus tools across the board, though that may be selling his bat and power a bit short. He looked like a future superstar in his pro debut, reaching Single-A at age 18 while batting .297/.489/.422 and walking more than twice as much as he struck out.
I can't restrict myself to a top three, so I'm going to give you a top five. Behind Holliday, the next-best prospects in baseball a year from now will be Chourio, Red Sox shortstop Marcelo Mayer and a pair of Diamondbacks, outfielder Druw Jones and shortstop Jordan Lawlar.
Why is there no love for Vaun Brown? Hits for average and power and has wicked speed, but hasn’t been close to the Top 100 list. -- Paul P., Oviedo, Fla.
Brown fascinates me as much as any prospect in the Minor Leagues. His pedigree (fifth-year senior signed for $7,500 out of NCAA Division II Florida Southern in 2021) and advanced age (24 in his first full pro season in 2022) aren't eye-catching, but his performance last year certainly was. He batted .346/.437/.623 with 23 homers and 44 steals in 103 games (mostly in Single-A and High-A), led the Minors in hitting and OPS (1.060) and ranked third in slugging and sixth in on-base percentage.
And the tools! Physically imposing at 6-foot-1 and 215 pounds, Brown has a combination of strength and bat speed that produces well-above-average raw power to go with his plus-plus speed and quality outfield defense.
The biggest questions with Brown are whether he can continue to thrive while facing more age-appropriate competition and whether he'll make enough contact against more advanced pitching after striking out at a 26 percent rate last year. If the answer is yes to both in Double-A in 2023, he'll be a Top 100 Prospect.
What's your outlook on Matt Allan following the recent injury news? -- @jackwramsey
MLB Pipeline's top-rated high school pitching prospect in the 2019 Draft, Allan dropped to the third round amid signability concerns. The Mets landed him with a $2.5 million bonus and the right-hander quickly pitched his way onto our Top 100, only to have Tommy John surgery in May 2021, followed by ulnar transposition in January 2022. Now comes news that he required a second elbow reconstruction this January, which means that he will have gone four-plus years between pitching appearances when he returns to the mound at some point in 2024.
The first Tommy John surgery wasn't a huge worry because so many pitchers have been able to bounce back from it to have successful careers. Walker Buehler, Max Fried, Cal Quantrill and Spencer Strider were all the same age (20) as Allan when they all had their initial elbow reconstructions, and they all lived up to or exceeded expectations afterward.
Allan's second Tommy John surgery is a much greater concern because it came so close to his first one and because he's so young. The two best prospect parallels I can think of are Anderson Espinoza (21 months apart, ages 19 and 21) and Drew Rasmussen (17 months apart, ages 20 and 22). Espinoza made his big league debut last year but has had less consistent stuff and control since returning, while Rasmussen has excelled for the Rays since they acquired him from the Brewers in the Willy Adames trade in May 2021.
Before he got hurt, Allan had a mid-90s fastball, a power curveball and a promising changeup. It remains to be seen how he'll respond to his third elbow surgery in 20 months -- all we'd really be doing at this point is guessing. At least Rasmussen provides some hope.
(Thanks to Jon Roegele and his excellent online Tommy John surgery database for research help on this topic.)