Which ace will reign supreme in 2022?
MLB.com experts debate the Top 10 Starting Pitchers Right Now
Every year, MLB Network previews the upcoming season with its “Top 10 Players Right Now” specials, which break down the best at each position. The latest installment, on the Top 10 starting pitchers, aired Monday night. Now, MLB.com is continuing the debate with a panel of experts -- Mark Feinsand, Sarah Langs and Mike Petriello -- who will explain their lists and share their thoughts on the state of the position.
Andrew Simon, moderator/editor: We all know how good Jacob deGrom is. We also know that he didn’t pitch after July 7 last season due to elbow trouble and finished with just 92 innings. Mike and Sarah both still put him at No. 1. What’s the minimum number of innings deGrom could throw in 2022 to make you confident that he will back up that ranking?
Mark Feinsand, executive reporter: deGrom’s elbow was the only reason he wasn’t higher on my list. Had he been healthy last year, he likely would have been my No. 1.
Mike Petriello, lead stats analyst: Can I start by saying that I did put deGrom No. 1 and I hated everything about it? That's no disrespect; it's exactly the opposite. It's insane to think that a nearly 34-year-old pitcher who didn't throw past July 7 last season, and has thrown only 160 innings across the past two years combined, should be atop a list of the best starting pitchers in baseball. But that's how good he was in the first half of last year; without hyperbole, I can say I have never seen pitching that good, and I lived in Boston when Pedro Martinez was at his peak.
Anyway, there's no middle ground here. He'll throw 20 innings or 180.
Feinsand: Hot take: Peak Pedro > peak deGrom
Petriello: Sounds like you just invented another roundtable, Mark.
Feinsand: Though to be honest, I’m not sure that take is all that hot. Your deGrom > Pedro take may be the hotter one.
Sarah Langs, reporter/producer: Obviously, this was a bit of a gamble. If he’s healthy, he’s far and away No. 1 -- if he’s 2021 Jacob deGrom. If he gets hurt again, there’s a question as to how long we can put a sub-100 innings pitcher as No. 1, back-to-back years. But I think if he’s as dominant as he was last year, for at least 100-plus innings, it’s probably him again. He was on a whole other level, as Mike said.
Petriello: I came ever so close to putting Burnes No. 1, and part of me still wishes I had.
Feinsand: I agree he was on a whole other level. But missing the entire second half with an elbow injury was too much for me to overlook given the other pitchers we had to choose from.
Langs: I also had some faith in his non-100 mph stuff, which is part of this, too. Great slider, and plenty of success with his "slower" (still very fast!) fastballs. If he can capitalize on that, still dominate, and avoid as much potentially injury-inducing heat -- then he’ll be great again.
Petriello: I'd say "14 runs in 15 starts" is video game stuff, except I could not do that in a video game.
Feinsand: Let me say one other thing before we continue: The difference between 1-5 on this list is minuscule. If I’m running a team, I would be thrilled to have any of those guys as my ace. The fact that the Mets have two of them is why there’s so much excitement in Queens.
Simon: That's a good transition to talking about deGrom’s new teammate, Max Scherzer. He was terrific in 2021 but will turn 38 in July. Sooner or later, the decline will come. Mike, you think that's happening this year?
Petriello: I think the risk is high, because he's about to be 38, and it's not like we didn't see some warning signs last year, right? To be clear, he's still on my top 10. Shohei Ohtani's not here. Lucas Giolito's not here. Aaron Nola's not on mine, and 20 other guys. I still like him very much, and a 236/36 K/BB is ... insanely good. But yeah, there's an absolute ton of risk here. That's why I slid him down.
Feinsand: Scherzer was first in the Majors in WHIP, second in ERA and fourth in strikeouts and K/9. If I was making a list for the next three or four years, he wouldn’t have been my No. 1. But if you tell me I can pick one guy to anchor my staff for 2022, I’m going with Scherzer. I know he faded a bit in the postseason, but coming off the shortened 2020 season, I wasn’t surprised at any pitcher who faded that late in the season.
He’s also done it on the biggest stage, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen a more competitive pitcher in my 21 years covering baseball. The guy is just a horse.
Langs: If this were Top 10 Pitchers for the next three years, I’m not as sure. But for 2022, it still feels like Scherzer is a strong top-five guy. There were definitely injury and aging-related warning signs last year, including the NLDS save and later NLCS issues. But I still didn’t hesitate to have him top-five.
Petriello: If I've overestimated the risk for Scherzer and underestimated it for deGrom, well, I'll take that as evening out.
Feinsand: Mike, you have him at 10. Is it just age?
Petriello: Age, and the fact that he's thrown more pitches than all but two other pitchers since 2008, meaning there's a lot of mileage here, and the fact he just had groin and arm concerns. It's a lot.
Feinsand: It’s OK. You’re allowed to be wrong sometimes.
Simon: We've discussed the Mets' Big Two. The Brewers (Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff) are the other team with a pair of pitchers on all three of your lists. If you could pick either duo to top your rotation in 2022, who ya got: the young guns or the vets?
Feinsand: I’ll take the vets if we’re talking about 2022 only. Long-term, obviously I would go with the guys whose combined age is less than 70.
Petriello: I can tell this is a good question because I don't really have a good answer. I think I'll go with Milwaukee, just because I'm reasonably sure I'll get excellent performance, and if I miss out on a little bit of the top-end (Woodruff, as great as he is, is clearly the fourth guy talent wise) to reduce some of the risk I get fewer innings, I'll live with that.
Feinsand: Both Brewers have been outstanding for the past two seasons. I just want to see them put a couple full seasons together before I take them ahead of a pair of future Hall of Famers.
Langs: This is such a fun question. The fact that the younger duo plus Freddy Peralta propelled that team to a division title with scant offense feels reason alone to take them. The injury questions around deGrom make me a bit more concerned with the vets. But both are great options, for sure.
Feinsand: deGrom’s health would be the only part that makes me hesitate at all.
Simon: While we’re talking pitchers with Cy Young Awards and injury questions, how about Shane Bieber? He barely pitched after mid-June due to a shoulder strain, returning for six innings at the end of the season. Mark, he’s not on your list at all -- is that also mostly a reflection of health concerns or is there more going on?
Feinsand: Purely health concerns. Bieber is a stud when he’s healthy. But if we’re talking 10 starters I want to rely on this season, the only one with a significant injury question I felt good enough to include was deGrom.
Simon: Where would you put him if you were guaranteed 150 innings?
Feinsand: He would certainly flirt with the bottom couple spots on my list.
Petriello: Bieber was my No. 1 a year ago, over deGrom. Mets fans were displeased, but I stood by it. Bieber did, after all, become the first pitcher in recorded history to strike out double digits in each of his first four starts of the season. And then yeah, shoulder injuries are always troublesome. But the upside is enormous.
Langs: For the record, my placement was an optimistic hope for injuries to abate. And I probably should’ve had him a bit lower with that in mind.
Simon: In my mind, Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman are strongly linked. Both showed promise but battled inconsistency for years; both had huge breakouts in 2021; both landed five-year contracts of similar value this offseason, Ray in Seattle, Gausman in Toronto. It’s interesting to me that the Blue Jays, after watching Ray take off in front of their eyes, essentially opted to replace him with Gausman moving forward. Yet each of you has Ray on your list (in the 8-10 range), while Gausman is absent. What do you make of Toronto’s decision and why do you like Ray better for 2022?
Petriello: That's a fair question. There's not a huge difference between them, I think, but Gausman really wasn't quite the same guy in the second half, and the move from San Francisco to Toronto isn't really a good one in terms of favorable ballparks.
Feinsand: Gausman was in the mix for me near the bottom of my list. He’s been inconsistent throughout his career, though his 2020 and ’21 seasons were very good. Ray obviously struggled in 2019 and ’20, so there are questions there, as well. I think both are very similar. Could have been a coin flip, to be honest. I found the pitchers in the 8-14 range all very close.
The fact that Ray posted his Cy Young season pitching in the AL East with Toronto as his home park also stands out to me.
Langs: I think the award, even though it’s subjective, in a way, since it’s voted on by 30 individuals, was the separator for me. A Cy Young season definitely merits presence here, even if it isn’t a stat itself. I love a comeback story, and both represent one: Gausman was the top-five pick whose prospects had soured, Ray had the highest prior-season ERA of a CYA winner.
Feinsand: I could have put 3-4 other starters on the list instead of Ray and been perfectly fine with it, too.
Petriello: Yes, my just-missed names aren't exactly the same, but there's definitely a "top six" and then "the next nine" kind of thing here for me.
Simon: Let’s talk about three up-and-coming pitchers who each appeared on one of your lists: Sandy Alcantara (Mark, ninth), Max Fried (Sarah, ninth) and Logan Webb (Mike, eighth). Can each of you give me one reason why you think the others are underrating your guy -- at least a little bit -- heading into this season?
Feinsand: Alcantara has really impressed me to this point in his career. He was an All-Star in 2019 -- a year in which he led the NL in losses -- and pitched very well in each of the past two seasons. One of only four pitchers to top 200 innings last year, and he’s only 26. I think this could be a big breakout season for him.
Alcantara’s WHIP has gone down every year since he broke in, while his strikeout and walk rates have also improved annually. It feels like he’s maturing into an ace.
Petriello: OK, so I've been talking about risk a lot here, and Logan Webb definitely comes with risk, because he was demoted to AAA as recently as ... July. He had a 5.36 ERA the previous two years. But the way he changed his game, ditching that bad four seamer for a killer sinker/slider combo, just worked incredibly well. I could say it's about the fact that in his final 25 starts (including playoffs) he allowed three runs or fewer 21 times, and totally dominated a very good Dodgers lineup in October, but I think I'm going to go with a bit of a soft factor here: My list is full of absolute flamethrowers who can dominate you with just pure filth. I have interest in a guy who has more of an old-school approach, getting the whiffs, but also with the grounders (61% ground-ball rate was second-highest, minimum 100 innings).
He’s just fun to watch. In a different way.
Langs: Fried had two bad starts in April after a good-enough Opening Day start, then missed two weeks with a hamstring injury. In his remaining 25 starts, he had a 2.44 ERA. He limits hard contact well and has a great curveball. He helped lead that team and it was exciting to see.
Simon: I have to mention Shohei Ohtani before we’re done, because obviously I do. Does everyone see last year’s pitching performance (130 1/3 innings, a 3.18 ERA) as a ceiling for what’s possible for him in a two-way role? Or is there still upside here -- potentially even top-10 upside?
Feinsand: The primary reason I left Ohtani off is that I don’t believe we’re ever going to see him throw more than 150 innings -- and even that feels high.
Petriello: The only reason I didn't include Ohtani was because 130 innings isn't that much, and I'm not sure I expect him to throw more this year. Too bad, though; for all the hype over his bat, his pitching really did improve as the year went on. He walked 11 guys in his first two starts ... and then only nine in his final 11!
Langs: I really, really wanted to make room for Ohtani, especially since we don’t do DH lists. That splitter was the best individual pitch in baseball by a few metrics. But it’s just hard with the low innings total.
Feinsand: If you told me I could pick one pitcher for next season, I would take Ohtani … as long as I was allowed to DH him, too. If we’re talking strictly about the work on the mound, I couldn’t justify him in my top 10.