Tigers prospect report from Spring Training
LAKELAND, Fla. -- The last three seasons have not been kind to the Tigers, who have lost 310 games and finished a cumulative 118 1/2 games out of first place in the American League Central. They have MLB's worst winning percentage (.361) during that time, the product of the third-worst offense (4.01 runs per game) and second-worst pitching (5.37 runs per game) in baseball.
It will take Detroit a while to rebuild its lineup, but quality reinforcements for the mound should start arriving this season. The Tigers' group of pitching prospects are as strong as any organization's, and most of their best are ticketed for Triple-A Toledo to begin 2020.
That contingent includes Top 100 Prospects Casey Mize (No. 7), Matt Manning (No. 24) and Tarik Skubal (No. 46). The Mud Hens' fourth starter should be Alex Faedo, a former first-round pick like fellow right-handers Mize and Manning. Joey Wentz, a supplemental first-rounder acquired from the Braves as part of the Shane Greene trade last July, eventually should give Toledo a second lefty starter to go with Skubal, but he could begin the season in Double-A Erie.
Detroit vice president of player development Dave Littlefield has been evaluating players since he broke into pro ball as an area scout with the Tigers since 1988. He said he's not sure he has seen a Minor League rotation with that much promise.
"You're always looking for pitching and you never have enough," Littlefield said. "They're doing a great job and they have a nice bond together from their time in Erie. They've had a good camp and Skubal has thrown well in particular. It's nice to see some of the results from the Draft and development showing up in big league camp."
The No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 Draft, Mize posted a 2.55 ERA, a .209 opponent average and 106 strikeouts in 109 2/3 innings during his first full season. He was especially dominant before missing a month with right shoulder soreness, allowing just one run in four high Class A starts and throwing a no-hitter in his first Double-A outing. His stuff (mid-90s fastball, power slider, devastating splitter) and strike-throwing ability were as good as advertised.
"I think he just needs to get more innings," Littlefield said. "Each level you move to, there's better competition and you need more consistency and better command. He's got good command, but everyone can improve. Obviously, the bar is high with Mize."
Some scouts believe Manning's ceiling is just as high as Mize's. The son of former NBA center Rich Manning, Matt gets great extension from his 6-foot-6 frame, and he has a mid-90s fastball and a curveball that can be an absolute hammer. The No. 9 overall choice in 2016 won Double-A Eastern League Pitcher of the Year honors last season after logging a 2.56 ERA, a .192 opponent average and 148 strikeouts in 133 2/3 innings.
"You can dream on Manning, even with the success he's already had," Littlefield said. "The size and athleticism and velocity are there. The breaking ball can be erratic and the changeup is developing. He's performed very well and there's a lot to like, and there are areas he can still improve upon."
While Mize and Manning were top-10-overall selections, Skubal went in the ninth round as a redshirt junior out of Seattle in 2018, two years after having Tommy John surgery. He struggled to throw strikes when he first returned to the mound, which depressed his Draft stock, but has had no such issues in pro ball and his stuff continues to improve. Showcasing a mid-90s fastball and three solid-or-better secondary pitches, he recorded a 2.42 ERA, a .196 opponent average and 179 strikeouts in 122 2/3 innings between high Class A and Double-A during his first full pro season.
"Last year was his first full season back from Tommy John and he was more mature physically and stronger, which is why his velocity ticked up," Littlefield said. "He's very serious about his craft. His lead arm creates deception and he's got stuff. His changeup and his breaking balls improved, and his swing-and-miss numbers were fantastic."
Mize, Manning and Skubal all have the ingredients to become front-line starters. Faedo, who has one of the best sliders in the system, and Wentz, a finesse lefty who misses bats, more likely fit in the back half of a rotation. Right-hander Beau Burrows, another first-rounder who'll open the season in Toledo, provides depth and ultimately may wind up as a middle reliever.
This collection of arms won't make the Tigers more relevant in 2020. But they will make them more watchable when they start arriving at Comerica Park later in the summer, and they do provide real hope for the future.
Camp standout
Riley Greene knows how to make an entrance. The No. 5 overall pick in the 2019 Draft homered twice in his first pro game last June. In his first big league camp this spring, the outfielder homered in his first two official at-bats amid three walks.
Still just 19 and not officially part of big league camp, Greene has gone 5-for-12 with six walks in parts of seven contests with the Tigers. Though he hasn't appeared in a game since March 4, he ranks seventh in the Grapefruit League in free passes. All the attributes -- sweet left-handed swing, raw power, mature approach -- that made him the best high school hitter in last year's Draft have been evident.
"To do what he's doing right now, he's very advanced," Littlefield said. "Look past the couple of home runs and see how he's working the count and putting the ball in play. He's got a lot of talent and solid character. He's a good athlete who worked hard this offseason and got himself into really good shape, added some strength."
Prospect we'll be talking about in 2021
Because his fastball usually sits around 90-92 mph, Wentz has been overshadowed by an abundance of more powerful arms in the both the Braves' and Tigers' systems. He compensates for fringy velocity with his ability to command and sequence his heater, curveball and changeup. He looked better than ever last August after coming over in the Greene deal, compiling a 2.10 ERA with a 37/4 K/BB ratio in 25 2/3 innings in five starts at Erie.
"We like all three pitches," Littlefield said. "There's some deception there, I think from the combination of three pitches, a higher arm slot and a big body throwing downhill. He's very mature and serious about his craft."
Something to prove
When the Tigers traded Justin Verlander to the Astros in August 2017, right-hander Franklin Perez was the prize among the three prospects they received in return. He ranked as Detroit's top prospect immediately after the deal, but he has pitched just 27 innings in two seasons since while dealing with lat and right shoulder injuries. He has a pair of plus pitches in his mid-90s fastball and his curveball, and the athleticism to provide consistent strikes.
"We've seen little glimpses," Littlefield said. "He looked very good in an instructional league bullpen, jumping out at you with three pitches that all looked above average. He has a big horse of a body and looks so durable. It's just unfortunate he has had issues here, but at this point, he looks good."