2021 is Tigers' time to turn the corner
The Tigers watched the Twins and White Sox vault from rebuilding teams with loads of young talent to playoff contenders to division favorites over the past few years. It’s not Detroit’s turn to make the jump just yet, but it’s time for the Tigers to turn the corner.
A.J. Hinch’s arrival as manager and Chris Fetter’s hire as pitching coach were signals that Detroit is ready to make the move back toward contention. The young pitching talent the Tigers have accumulated over the past five years has either arrived in Detroit or will do so over the course of the season. Their top hitting prospects are still further off but are expected to make a move up the system this summer, while Jeimer Candelario and Willi Castro find their places in the heart of the Tigers' order.
Growing pains are inevitable, even on the pitching side, but so are the flashes of talent that Detroit fans have been desperate to see the past few years. It might not be the Tigers' time to win like the White Sox and Twins, but it’s time for Detroit to compete.
“We have a lot of work to do to get where we want to get to,” Hinch said. “We’re not nearly as good as we expect to be moving forward, but the challenge is well-accepted by the group in the room.
“I like the makeup of this team, the internal fortitude. I mean, these guys really care about their craft, and they’re good at passing that along to the young guys.”
What needs to go right?
The pitching staff has to come together. It hasn’t the past few years, leaving former manager Ron Gardenhire scrambling to fill innings simply to get through games. The Tigers have had a 5+ team ERA in three of the past four seasons, including an MLB-high 5.63 last year. As Hinch has said time and again this spring, they have to get the pitching right, not just this season but long term. There’s talent on the staff, especially with top prospects Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal set to open the season in the rotation, and there are track records with former aces Julio Teheran and José Ureña, but there are questions with all of them, just as there are in a bullpen mixed with good young arms and converted starters but no proven closer.
Great unknown
Mize has been ticketed for stardom ever since the Tigers made him the first pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, but the talented right-hander had a rough introduction to Major League hitting last season, and finished with a 6.99 ERA over seven starts. Mize appeared headed to Triple-A Toledo this spring before a strong finish cinched his spot in Detroit's rotation. When he’s on, his pitch mix is imposing, but he has to be aggressive and precise in the strike zone to put his stuff to work. The more efficient he is, the more innings he can fill, and the longer he can last this season as he ramps up from last year’s 60-game schedule.
Team MVP will be ...
Willi Castro will probably have a tough time matching his late-season stretch last year for a full season, but the switch-hitting shortstop has plenty of talent to be an impact bat in the middle of the Tigers' lineup if he can continue to make consistent contact and let his athleticism shine. Castro's defense at short remains a mystery, but if the 23-year-old hits, the Tigers will have a long-term spot for him somewhere in their infield.
Team Cy Young will be ...
Spencer Turnbull’s career has been on a steady upward trajectory ever since he joined Detroit's rotation as a September callup in 2018. This could be the year Turnbull, now 28, takes a bigger step forward and looks more like a front-line starter. He needs to limit his walks (4.6 per nine innings last season), but the way his pitches move, he’s the Tigers starter many American League Central hitters dread facing. Turnbull will open the season on the injured list after missing the stretch run of Spring Training due to COVID-19 protocol, but he should be back relatively early in the season.
Bold prediction
By season’s end, Miguel Cabrera will become the seventh player in Major League history with 3,000 hits and 500 home runs. He needs 134 hits and 13 home runs to do it, both of which are reachable if he can stay healthy for a full season. It won’t be automatic -- Cabrera turns 38 on April 18 -- but the support he’s getting from teammates and the energy boost he has shown from being able to play first base again have him looking a few years younger.