Even with us now past the one-quarter mark of the season, it’s still early.

Remember, on this date last year, the fourth-place Phillies were under .500, and the Rays were off to one of the best starts in baseball history. Lots can change! But even allotting for that, it’s a pivotal time. For teams that are on the cusp of contention but not fully there yet, the next month of the season is pivotal. They can catch up after a slow start … or their season can get away from them.

At this fulcrum, we thought we’d take a look at seven teams that maybe haven’t gotten off to the start they wanted but can still get back in this thing, or fall out of it entirely, over the next month. Every game is important. But for these seven teams, over the next month, every game may well be critical.

Astros (22-27, 3rd in AL West)

At the very least, the Astros have stanched the bleeding. On May 8, Houston had fallen all the way to 12 games under .500, at 12-24. They’re 10-3 since then, and although the schedule has helped with that (they reasserted some authority over the A’s by sweeping a four-game set), there is an undeniable sense that the boat is no longer taking on water. They’ve also benefited from a wobbly AL West; it is telling that the team leading the division is also on this sorta-disappointing-to-start-the-season list we’re writing right here.

But the fact remains that the Astros are still five games under .500, thanks largely to a pitching staff that has been riddled with injuries and just can’t seem to get straight; it's currently 28th in the Majors in ERA (4.63). Although the Astros aren’t going to start trading people away if the next month goes poorly, another slump could leave them in the dust if the Mariners or Rangers ever get going. The Astros have a new manager in Joe Espada, and they haven’t been in this current situation in nearly a decade. They need some proof of concept that they are still, in fact, the Astros.

Blue Jays (21-26, 5th in AL East)

It’s possible we’d be thinking a little differently about what’s happening with the Blue Jays right now if they had won a World Series -- or even a playoff series -- while posting MLB’s sixth-best record and making three postseason appearances from 2020-23. But they didn’t. Thus, the Blue Jays have that ominous air of underachievers, a team that was built around young players who were supposed to lead them to the promised land but just have never gotten them there.

The rest of the AL East hasn’t waited around for them to figure it out, and now the Orioles are the team we thought the Blue Jays would be, the Yankees have woken up, the Rays are chugging along and the Red Sox have more going on than anyone could have rightly expected. All that equals last place for the Blue Jays, an extremely perilous place for them to be; it’s one thing to fall short in the postseason, it’s quite another to finish in last place. If the Blue Jays have another losing month, if they fall even farther than the 10 1/2 games they’re currently out of first, you would have to wonder if the window is shutting on this particular era in Toronto. With both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette set to reach free agency after the 2025 season, Blue Jays fans are running out of patience. It’s difficult to blame them.

Cardinals (21-26, 4th in NL Central)

Last season the Cardinals finished in last place for the first time since 1990, when they were battling the Expos, Mets and Phillies in the NL East. Now they are in danger of doing so again. (The last time the club endured back-to-back last-place finishes? Try 1907-08.) After an offseason in which they aggressively overhauled the pitching staff -- signing starters Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, and restocking the entire bullpen -- they have watched as their offense has fallen apart, thanks largely to young players stalling out and such accomplished veterans as Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado skidding right into their aging curves. Their offense has improved lately, but their pitching has fallen off, with one of MLB’s highest ERAs in the month of May.

This is a franchise that has been under the same leadership for nearly two decades, and there is a sense that matters are getting stale, that other teams have caught up with them. The Cardinals' brass does not buy this: They, and the players, believe this is about to turn around. But if that doesn’t happen over the next month, it may not just be the pitching staff that gets an overhaul.

Giants (23-26, 3rd in NL West)

After missing out on some big-name free agents the last couple of years, the Giants went out and added a whole gaggle of players this past offseason, from Blake Snell to Matt Chapman to Jorge Soler to Jordan Hicks to Robbie Ray to Jung Hoo Lee. This is what we want teams to do, particularly teams with big fanbases like the Giants have: Go out there and try to make your team better.

It hasn’t worked out so far. That’s largely because of injuries, some small (Snell should be back this week), some big (Lee is out for the year). Many of those contracts were relatively short-term, proof-of-concept deals, meant to make the team better immediately, to jolt it out of what appeared to be a rut. So far, though, they seem stuck in the mud. They’re not catching the Dodgers this year, but a Wild Card spot is still quite possible. But not if they keep spinning their wheels.

Mariners (27-22, 1st in AL West)

All right, so the Mariners are in first place, which means they can’t be that disappointing: First place is first place, after all, and the Mariners haven’t finished there since 2001. But it’s hard to shake the feeling that their position is less about them having a terrific season -- or even one that’s meeting expectations -- and more about how poorly the rest of their division has played. Their much-vaunted rotation has been a little shakier than expected, and somehow Julio Rodríguez, my pick for AL MVP this year, has a below-average OPS+ and only two home runs.

The Mariners still have young talent in their farm system, but they’re highly leveraged to win this season, when they are supposed to overcome last year’s setback and get back to the playoffs. The next month is a time when they need to take the step forward they haven’t so far … before the Rangers and Astros wake up.

Mets (21-27, 4th in NL East)

A month ago, everything seemed to be rolling for the Mets, who went on a 12-3 roll after an 0-5 start, including a six-game win streak from April 14-20. Young players were emerging. The starting pitching was clicking into gear. There were big hits all around. It felt like a happy tonic to the ugliness that overtook last season.

It has gone a little off the rails since then, but for a surprising reason: Edwin Díaz has struggled rather dramatically, throwing the whole bullpen into chaos. The Mets aren’t as all-in as they were last year, but they’re still trying to stay in the Wild Card chase (they’re already well out in the NL East). The next month will determine whether that happens -- or if they start shipping out veteran pieces at the Trade Deadline. (Someone’s going to want J.D. Martinez, at the very least.) The next two weeks may determine everything: They have a 10-game homestand starting Friday before a trip to Washington and then a journey across the pond for the 2024 London Series against the Phillies.

Padres (25-26, 2nd in NL West)

After the misery that was last year, you’d think anything would be an improvement, and while the vibes are better, the record is essentially the same: These Padres are roughly a .500 team, just like last year. The question is whether, moving forward, they can be more than that. The injury to Xander Bogaerts is a setback, although Bogaerts has been struggling all year, with a .581 OPS. In fact, San Diego’s biggest stars aren’t really hitting like it; instead, Jurickson Profar and Jake Cronenworth have been the biggest bats in the lineup early this season.

The Padres are keeping their heads above water anyway, thanks mostly to the weak NL Wild Card field. In fact, they entered Tuesday one game ahead of the Giants for the third spot. That means there is still an opportunity for San Diego to prove last year was an aberration and avoid a repeat of history. The next month may let us know who these Padres really are.