The case for each 2023 Cy Young Award finalist

November 15th, 2023

There are some obvious favorites among this year's Cy Young Award candidates.

In the American League, one longtime ace who has finished top five for the award five times -- but hasn't won -- is a good bet to win his first this year. In the National League, a lefty is looking to become the seventh pitcher to win the award in both leagues.

Those two candidates, however, will have competition from four other aces who each had Cy Young Award-caliber seasons themselves, the types of seasons that warranted them being in this conversation in the first place.

Here's a look at the case for each of the six Cy Young nominees before the winners are announced Wednesday on MLB Network at 6 p.m. ET.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Gerrit Cole, RHP, Yankees

The Yankees right-hander has been runner-up twice (2019 and ‘21) in the American League Cy Young Award voting. But the third time will be the charm for Cole.

While the Yankees had a disappointing campaign in 2023, Cole was the model of consistency. Besides leading the team with a 7.5 bWAR, Cole led the AL in eight pitching categories, including ERA (2.63), innings pitched (209) and WHIP (0.98).

Cole put himself in the thick of the Cy Young conversation with a stellar seven-start stretch to close the season, going 5-0 with a 1.29 ERA (seven earned runs in 48 2/3 innings pitched) and 52 strikeouts. New York won 23 of his 33 starts overall.

Cole, who went 15-4, did more than just dominate in his last seven starts. His 2.63 ERA was the lowest by a qualified Yankees pitcher since recorded a 2.46 mark in 41 games (17 starts) in 1980. It was also the fourth-lowest ERA by a qualified Yankee in the last 49 years, trailing only (1.74 ERA in 1978), May and (2.58 ERA in 1975). Cole allowed more than three runs just five times in 33 starts this season, yielding 27 of his 64 runs in those five starts. In his other 28 starts, he gave up just 37 runs for an average of just 1.32 runs per game.

Cole also utilized his putaway pitches. According to Baseball Savant, Cole used mostly a four-seam fastball and slider, and opposing hitters had a combined .196 (109-for-557) batting average. -- Bill Ladson

Kevin Gausman, RHP, Blue Jays

Gausman deserved more consideration a year ago, when he finished ninth with just one vote on AL Cy Young Award ballots, and he’s made that leap as a finalist in 2023.

The Blue Jays’ ace led the AL in strikeouts this season (237) and dropped his ERA to 3.16, making him one of baseball’s most reliable starters. It’s a continuation of what Blue Jays fans saw last season, when the biggest thing that held Gausman back was some historically bad batted-ball luck that plagued him all year. In 2022, Gausman’s .363 opponent BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was the second-worst for a pitcher in the Live Ball Era (since 1920).

With that straightened out in ‘23, Gausman tied with fellow finalist Sonny Gray for the highest WAR (FanGraphs) among AL pitchers, just ahead of the third finalist, Cole (5.2 WAR). The case for Gausman rests on the right-hander’s consistency, peaks of dominance with his trademark splitter and an ability to control the game’s biggest moments. While Gausman’s ERA ranks him fourth among qualified AL starters, including Cole and Gray, his FIP of 2.97 ranks just second behind Gray.

Gausman and Gray measure out closely by many metrics but are such different pitchers, with Gausman overpowering hitters with strikeouts while Gray thrives on pinpoint control and keeping the ball in the yard. Cole has felt like the favorite for this award for some time now, but Gausman is right where he belongs here, standing among the three best pitchers in the American League. -- Keegan Matheson

Sonny Gray, RHP, Twins

It’s difficult to become an elite Major Leaguer; it’s even tougher for a player to remain elite as he ages and the league evolves and adapts around him.

But here’s Gray, having crossed the 10-year mark of his career, still at the peak of his craft. The three seasons in which he’s received Cy Young votes have been 2015, ‘19 and, now, ‘23 -- and this version might have been the best of them all.

Now 34 years old, Gray’s arsenal and usage have evolved into a crafty, controlled mix that didn’t make him a Statcast darling, but delivered results -- the most important currency. Gray’s 2.79 ERA was the second-lowest in the AL behind Cole, and he ranked tied for first in FanGraphs WAR (5.3) with Gausman and was second in Baseball Reference WAR (5.3) behind Cole.

Though Gray had some walk issues, his success was predicated around his ability to avoid getting hit -- he finished fifth in the AL with a .225 opponents’ average -- and escape the long ball. His eight homers allowed (in this home run-hitting climate) were the fewest, by far, among qualified big leaguers, and were the fewest ever allowed by a qualified Twins pitcher in a full season.

Gray was also at his best under pressure. His .519 OPS allowed with runners in scoring position was the best in the AL, and he carried a 2.03 ERA from August to the end of the regular season -- when the Twins needed him most as they pushed for a division title. -- Do-Hyoung Park

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Zac Gallen, RHP, D-backs

Gallen was the ace of a staff that won the National League pennant, and there’s no way the D-backs would have found themselves in the playoffs without him.

In a season where the rest of the rotation was constantly in flux, Gallen was their anchor at the top.  He put together another outstanding season, posting a 17-9 record and a 3.47 ERA. He also reached career highs in innings with 210 and strikeouts with 220.

Gallen was at his best with runners in scoring position, leading the Majors with an opponents’ batting average in those situations of .081.

He had his best game of the year -- a 1-0 complete game -- when the D-backs needed it most in a crucial series against the Cubs at Wrigley Field on Sept. 8. -- Steve Gilbert

Blake Snell, LHP, Padres

The case for Snell to win a second career Cy Young Award is self-explanatory enough. He was the most dominant pitcher in the NL by a landslide over the season's final 4 1/2 months. Snell led the Majors with a 2.25 ERA, including a ridiculous 1.20 mark over his final 23 starts. (Only 1968 has ever posted a lower ERA over as many starts.) Snell also led the Majors in opponent's batting average, hits per nine innings and ERA+. He finished second in the NL in strikeouts.

Still, for whatever reason, the case against Snell seems to have gained more traction than the case for him. So let's discuss that. No Cy Young winner since of the 1959 White Sox has led the Majors in walks. Snell's 99 free passes were the most in the sport. As such, his peripheral numbers are slightly worse than some fellow contenders.

But the case against Snell feels mostly theoretical. Based on the number of baserunners he allowed, the numbers suggest he probably should have allowed more runs. The fact remains: He didn't allow those runs. Despite the walks, Snell was elite at run prevention -- because he rarely allowed hits and he almost never allowed extra-base hits. In fact, Snell often avoided contact altogether with men on base.

And, sure, the extra walks meant extra pitches and a heavier workload early in his starts. Snell finished with 180 innings -- 30 innings fewer than Zac Gallen and 36 fewer than Logan Webb. But in those 30 fewer innings, Snell allowed 40 fewer runs than Gallen. He allowed 36 fewer runs than Webb. There wasn’t a pitcher in baseball better at preventing runs than Snell -- the biggest reason he’s a favorite to join , , , , and as the only pitchers to take home a Cy Young Award in both leagues. -- AJ Cassavell

Logan Webb, RHP, Giants

Webb is a bit of a throwback, taking significant pride in being a workhorse and eating up as many innings as possible for his team. He emerged as MLB’s most durable starter in 2023, leading the Majors with a career-high 216 innings while logging a 3.25 ERA over 33 starts, two of which were complete games. The 26-year-old right-hander was one of only five starters to reach the 200-inning threshold this past season and became the first Giants pitcher to lead the Majors in innings since Gaylord Perry in 1970.

Armed with an elite sinker-changeup combination, Webb led the Majors with a 62.7% ground ball rate, allowing him to consistently pitch deep into games despite receiving the lowest run support of any starter this past season.

While Snell (2.25 ERA) has the clear edge from a run-prevention standpoint, he completed seven innings only twice in 32 starts for the Padres and led the Majors with 99 walks over 180 innings -- 36 fewer than Webb. Webb’s value was immeasurable for the Giants, who attempted to get by with only two traditional starters for most of the season and needed his consistency to take some pressure off their bullpen, which was often tasked with filling the sizable gaps in the club’s rotation. -- Maria Guardado