For Blue Jays, these stats tell the story
This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
We’re deep enough into the MLB season that the oddities have ironed themselves out.
Hot starts like Matt Chapman’s are now new realities. Cold starts like Brandon Belt’s have veered away from the ditch and righted themselves. Nine out of every 10 exciting changes you read about in Spring Training haven’t resulted in much. It’s a beautiful tradition.
This is also the point where we have enough data on the 2023 season to extract some interesting trends or underlying reasons for a player’s performance.
It’s important to frame these fancy stats, too. This isn’t about sounding like the smartest person in the room -- because there are enough people trying to do that already -- but about adding some extra context to the “how” and “why” of bigger stories with the Blue Jays.
Here’s a look at five numbers that stand out from our Statcast pages, and why they matter.
Vladdy’s exit velocities (rankings)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s numbers don’t all align this season. He’s hitting the ball in the air more consistently with a launch angle similar to his near-MVP season in 2021 and he ranks second in MLB behind only Ronald Acuña Jr. with 110 balls hit 95 mph or harder.
Guerrero’s numbers are still hovering around last season’s though, which aren’t good enough for a player with the potential to be one of the game’s most feared hitters. These underlying numbers should give you optimism that bigger and better days are coming around the corner, but the Blue Jays have been waiting on that for a while now. It’s strange to live in a world where Guerrero’s at-bats aren’t must-see TV.
Bichette beats the heat (rankings)
Bo Bichette is batting .453 against four-seam fastballs this season. Among all players who have taken more than 50 plate appearances this season, that’s the first-best average against an individual pitch. Bichette sees four-seamers about a third of the time, too, so this is the foundation of the exceptional season he’s having offensively.
Bichette is striking out less this season and working deep at-bats, casually fouling off any pitches he doesn’t love. Eventually, he gets a four-seam fastball. Nearly half the time, he turns it into a base hit. You’re looking at a hitter in total and complete control.
Kiermaier’s elite jumps (rankings)
No, not the jumps at the wall. It’s Kevin Kiermaier’s first few steps -- that initial “jump” when the ball leaves the bat -- that makes him special. Statcast defines the “jump” as the first three seconds after the ball leaves the bat, and in that time, Kiermaier covers an average of 37.5 feet. It’s the best in baseball, just ahead of Miami’s Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Where Kiermaier really shines is his “burst,” which Statcast measures as the 1.6-3.0 second range. Consider this the moment that Kiermaier is kicking it into high gear. He’s the best in baseball in that regard, too, which is why he’s able to put himself in the position to make so many spectacular plays. The metrics love Kiermaier in nearly every way defensively, and he’s making a fine case for another Gold Glove Award in 2023.
Swanson’s splitter from hell (rankings)
On the other side of Bichette crushing four-seam fastballs? Erik Swanson’s splitter is driving opposing hitters nuts.
They’ve hit just .095 against Swanson’s splitter. Among pitchers who have faced at least 50 batters, that’s the fourth-lowest average for an individual pitch. Swanson is doing it quietly, but he’s been an excellent addition at the back end of this bullpen with a 2.73 ERA after shaking off a rough stretch in mid-May.
Kirk’s block party (rankings)
The Blue Jays have one of baseball’s best catching tandems when it comes to blocking pitches behind the plate, something that’s important on a roster with Kevin Gausman and Swanson’s splitters. Alejandro Kirk has been excellent again this season, ranking fifth with five Blocks Above Average. This essentially means that Kirk has prevented five expected passed balls or wild pitches.
It sounds small, but these things matter in the close games that the Blue Jays expect to be playing in October. Kirk’s offense hasn’t met expectations in 2023, particularly in the power department, but he’s holding up his end of the bargain defensively.