Final Lone Star State battle of '26 could shape Deadline plans and playoff picture

HOUSTON -- The final meeting of the season between the Astros and the Rangers -- the Lone Star State rivals who have combined to win nine of the last 11 American League West titles -- sets up as the perhaps most important series between the clubs since the 2023 ALCS.

The red-hot Astros, winners of eight of their last nine games, are at .500 (55-55) for the first time since they were 6-6 on April 7. They enter Friday a half-game behind the first-place Rangers and one game back of the Guardians for the third AL Wild Card spot.

Meanwhile, the Rangers are getting healthy and took three of four games from the Mariners last week to vault into first place. Texas has already made a deal prior to Monday’s Trade Deadline, and the Astros are looking to add players as well. It’s only three games, but the division is poised to remain tight until the end.

Texas is 31-26 since May 25; the Astros are 32-24.

Let’s check in with MLB.com’s beat reporters to see how the AL West rivals are looking ahead of this series.

What’s the state of each team?

Brian McTaggart, Astros beat reporter: The Astros have posted the best record in the AL since May 21, going 35-24 in that stretch. More specifically, they’ve won eight out of nine games since getting swept by the Orioles out of the All-Star break. They’re as healthy as they’ve been all season, getting a pair of starting pitchers -- Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski -- back from Tommy John surgery in late July, and are being carried on offense by AL MVP favorite Yordan Alvarez and shortstop Jeremy Peña. They have 15 of their next 21 games at home and a favorable schedule remaining beyond that.

Kennedi Landry, Rangers beat reporter: The Rangers will probably tell you they haven’t played their best baseball to this point. Yet in a weak AL and a weaker AL West, that’s translated to a half-game lead in the division and even in the hunt for a Wild Card spot, if they weren’t leading. They’ve treaded water while missing Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford and Josh Jung all for various amounts of time. They stumbled out of the break with series losses to the Braves and White Sox before taking three of four against the Mariners to secure the season series against another AL West rival. Despite dropping two of three to the AL-best Rays, the Rangers feel good about heading into Daikin Park this weekend.

This is the final time the Astros and Rangers will meet during the regular season this year. What does this series mean for each team?

McTaggart: Simple. The Astros need to win one of the three games to maintain the Silver Boot, and taking the season series could loom large if the teams finish tied for the division lead or a playoff spot at the end of the season. You don’t have to remind the Astros of that. Last year, they finished tied with the Tigers for the final playoff spot in the AL, but lost the season series to Detroit, ending Houston’s run of eight consecutive playoff berths. If the Astros take two of three, they could hit Monday’s Trade Deadline in first place.

Landry: The Rangers haven’t won the Silver Boot Series since 2019. They'll need to sweep the three-game set this weekend if they want to win the season series in 2026. With the AL West as tight as it is, a sweep for Texas could mean all the difference come the end of September. Chris Young and the front office have already started adding to the big league roster, acquiring Logan O’Hoppe and Chase Silseth from the Angels on Wednesday night, seemingly signaling that they intend to be buyers -- however loosely -- regardless of what happens this weekend.

This has been an odd season, where most American League teams are both contending and also struggling to maintain a .500-ish record. Give your best pitch why your team is better positioned to make a September surge and separate itself from the AL West pack.

McTaggart: The Astros, who had as many as 16 players on the injured list earlier in the season, which contributed heavily to their 20-31 start, are as healthy as they’ve been all season. They're a different team when Peña is on the field, so keeping him healthy is important. The returns of Blanco and Wesneski to the rotation should be a boost in the final two months. And they have the most feared hitter on the planet -- Yordan Alvarez -- anchoring their offense. He’s leading the AL in all three Triple Crown categories and has two good hitters on each side of him in Peña and Isaac Paredes. Plus, entering Thursday, the Astros’ bullpen had the third-best ERA in baseball (trailing only the Yankees and Red Sox) since May 1 with some possible help on the way at the Trade Deadline.

Like the Rangers, the Astros have one of the easiest schedules remaining in the final two months of the season.

Landry: They are far from the only team, but the Rangers’ chances at any type of success down the stretch lies in health. In the coming days, the club is expected to get both Seager and Jung back to the lineup. In the coming weeks, Jordan Montgomery and Cody Bradford will return to the pitching staff in one way or another, and likely even sooner in Montgomery’s case. Maybe most importantly, the Rangers need Wyatt Langford to stay healthy. The young phenom has slashed .277/.309/.523 since returning from a hamstring injury on July 9 and has finally looked like the star the Rangers have expected him to be. The only thing hindering his ascent has been a string of injuries in each of his first three big league seasons.

Additionally, the Rangers have one of the easiest schedules in the second half. The only AL team with an easier remaining schedule is the Guardians. The Rangers just need to take advantage.

What’s the biggest concern for each team at the moment?

McTaggart: The second half of the batting order has not been good, mostly because of the poor production the team has been getting in the outfield. If opposing pitchers can get through the gauntlet of Peña, Alvarez and Paredes at the top, the remaining six hitters are less intimidating, especially if veterans Jose Altuve and Christian Walker are struggling. Astros outfielders had a MLB-worst .660 OPS and .213 batting average entering Thursday, which is why the club was working to add a left-handed bat that can play the outfield before the Trade Deadline.

Landry: On the same note, the core is older and/or injury prone. Some are both. And that may not be sustainable down the stretch. Seager’s back has been hindering him all season long. Jung has had a number of injuries holding him down in his big league career. Langford has been on the injured list six times since his debut in 2024. Even Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom, both of whom have avoided the injured list so far this season, aren’t getting any younger. Neither has looked like the best version of themselves this year either.

If the Rangers are going to make a run, it will begin and end with the health of this core.