This under-the-radar bat could make a difference in free agency

This under-the-radar bat could make a difference in free agency

December 3rd, 2023

While this year's free-agent class is heavy on arms, there's a far more limited supply of bats with the potential to transform a lineup or raise a team’s offensive ceiling.

Only four free agents had at least 450 plate appearances and an OPS+ of 120 or higher in 2023: (184), (134), (133) and (128). We’ll also mention Rhys Hoskins, who missed all of 2023 with a torn ACL but finished the previous campaign with 30 homers and a 123 OPS+ over 672 PAs.

After that, though, there appears to be a steep dropoff. There are some other solid options available, to be certain, but none on the level of those five.

That said, there's one other hitter who might be closer to that group than he appears -- right fielder .

Traded from the Blue Jays to the Mariners last offseason, Hernández had a down year in 2023, posting a 106 OPS+ while striking out 211 times in 678 plate appearances. The 31-year-old had an OPS above .700 in only two calendar months -- June (.949) and August (1.050) -- and he went 14-for-82 (.171) with one homer and 33 K’s over his final 21 games as Seattle narrowly missed the postseason.

When free agency began, the Mariners didn’t even bother extending him a one-year, $20.325 million qualifying offer.

With all of that in mind, it’s easy to understand why Hernández isn’t attracting significant buzz on the free-agent market. However, he might be a better option than many realize. Here’s why.

His track record

In the years leading up to his disappointing 2023 season, Hernández’s performance rivaled that of some of the most productive hitters in baseball.

With Toronto from 2020-22, Hernández had 73 homers, 227 RBIs and an .852 OPS over 1,337 plate appearances.

Among the 160 hitters with at least 1,000 PAs in that span, he ranked 20th with a 133 OPS+, which put him in the same neighborhood with stars such as (136), (135), (135), (132), (132) and (131).

And while Hernández wasn’t at his best in 2023, he still finished with 26 homers, marking the fourth straight full season (excluding 2020) he went deep at least 25 times.

His contact-quality metrics

Although Hernández’s contact quantity declined in 2023, with his strikeout rate climbing to 31.1% (27.2% from 2020-22), his contact quality did not, as he still demonstrated the ability to produce loud contact with regularity.

Hernández’s hard-hit rate was 49.4%, which placed him in the 90th percentile among MLB hitters. From 2020-22, he ranked in the 96th, 88th and 98th percentiles, respectively, in hard-hit rate, recording hard contact (95+ mph exit velocity) on 51.3% of his batted balls overall in that span.

He also had an excellent barrel rate, a Statcast metric that measures how often a hitter produces optimal contact, in terms of exit velocity and launch angle. Hernández’s 13.8% barrel rate was in the 88th percentile after ranking in the 98th, 87th and 94th percentiles, respectively, from 2020-22.

Hernández’s expected slugging percentage, which takes strikeouts into account along with contact quality, was down a bit from his previous heights (.534 xSLG from 2020-22), but he still ranked in the 79th percentile with a .476 xSLG. He had a 41-point difference between his xSLG and actual slugging percentage (.435), tied for the 22nd-largest “unlucky gap” in MLB.

His production away from Seattle in 2023

Here we have what was perhaps the biggest reason behind Hernández’s decline in production last season -- he went from a great park for right-handed power in Rogers Centre to T-Mobile Park, one of the unfriendliest big league parks for hitters.

In fact, no MLB park had a lower overall park factor (92) across the past three years than Seattle’s venue. (The lower the park factor, the worse a park was for hitters.)

T-Mobile Park clearly wasn’t “home sweet home” for Hernández, who posted a .217/.263/.380 slash over 79 games in Seattle. That included a 65-point unlucky gap between his xSLG and actual SLG in home games.

His performance on the road was more in line with what we’ve come to expect from him -- he slashed .295/.344/.486 in 81 away games.

Given most of the players who struggled that much at home were bad hitters everywhere, Hernández was nearly in a category unto himself. Among players with at least 450 plate appearances overall last season, Hernández, Phillies catcher and Tigers first baseman were the only ones to record a sub-.700 OPS at home and an OPS over .800 on the road.

Best fits

So, now that we've gone over why Hernández is a more attractive free-agent option than he might appear on the surface, what teams could benefit from signing him?

Looking for clubs that have a need for a corner outfielder and/or right-handed bat and have the type of home park that can allow Hernández to thrive, we landed on these six.

Angels: Hernández, in effect, is a superior version of , who was acquired by the Halos in a trade with the Brewers last offseason before being claimed off waivers by the Reds in August. Whether they can bring back Ohtani or not, the Angels need more hitting and could also use a starting right fielder.

Blue Jays: Toronto needs to replace four hitters after , , and reached free agency, and they’ll need a corner outfielder if slides over to center to fill Kiermaier's vacancy. Why not turn to a familiar face in Hernández?

Dodgers: They already re-signed and are a top contender for Ohtani, so Hernández probably isn't a priority for the Dodgers right now. But even if they can land Ohtani, they'll need to replace Martinez's right-handed power in their lineup and find a new left fielder, with also a free agent.

Nationals: They probably aren't going to contend in 2024, but Hernández would help bring the Nats closer to respectability. (28 HR) was the only Washington hitter with more than 18 homers this past season.

Rangers: The reigning World Series champions already have in right and rookie sensation in left. But how about adding Hernández to fill the DH vacancy left by free agent ?

Red Sox: Hernández taking aim at the Green Monster? It makes sense for the Red Sox, who could lose right-handed hitters and to free agency. He seems to like Fenway Park, hitting .282 with 14 homers and a .950 OPS over 45 games at Boston's historic venue in his career.