9 clubs that should be all-in at the Trade Deadline
Anthony Castrovince
@castrovinceIt is time once again for those of us on the sidelines to advocate for aggression at the MLB Trade Deadline.
Is this stance complicated by this year’s relatively thin inventory? It is.
Are there dangers to short-sighted thinking in a seller’s market? There are.
Should we acknowledge that many World Series champions win with the help of small, shrewd moves instead of majestic summer splashes? We should.
But will any of the above points stop us from telling teams to go for it at any cost? Of course not!
After all, there is nothing more fun this time of year than when a club meets the moment and sends a signal to its clubhouse that nothing is more important than winning right now. With that in mind, here are nine teams we think ought to be especially aggressive at this Deadline.*
*The Phillies, with the Majors’ best record and most well-rounded roster at the moment, get a pass here.
1. Orioles
The O’s were No. 1 on this list a year ago, yet had a tepid Trade Deadline that arguably came back to bite them come October. But the offseason Corbin Burnes trade kicked this club into another gear. And given that Baltimore is still short on controllable starters and has endured season-ending injuries to Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells, we expect that aggression to continue.
Who they could land: The Orioles could land any available starting pitcher … and even starting pitchers not currently deemed to be available. The big one in the latter category is Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, an AL Cy Young candidate who is under Detroit’s contractual control through 2026. The Tigers would have to be completely overwhelmed to deal him, and the O’s might be the only team that could do such a deal.
Who they’d have to trade away: As always, depends on the magnitude of the deal. For Skubal, you’re possibly venturing into middle infielder Jackson Holliday (No. 1 prospect in baseball, per MLB Pipeline) territory. But in the likes of catcher/first baseman Samuel Basallo (No. 12 overall) and infielder Coby Mayo (No. 15 overall), the O’s could potentially do a deal for Skubal or White Sox ace Garrett Crochet that doesn’t even involve their No. 1 prospect. And with additional prospect depth beyond that high-profile trio and position player depth on the Major League roster, there’s not much a motivated O’s team couldn’t pull off at this Deadline.
2. Mariners
There is always an added sense of urgency attached to a Seattle squad in contention given the organizational history when it comes to second-half flubs and October exits. If it weren’t already clear that the Mariners needed to swing some deals to support their stellar, World Series-caliber starting staff, then the steady eradication of what had been a 10-game lead in the AL West as recently as June 18 and an IL stint for Julio Rodríguez ought to do it. This isn’t complicated: The M’s need some O.
Who they could land: If Luis Robert Jr. or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were to change hands, the Mariners would most assuredly be among the suitors. Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Brent Rooker are other intriguing possibilities.
Who they’d have to trade away: The Mariners are in the interesting position of having depth in the one area where pretty much everyone else is light -- starting pitching. Emerson Hancock might have more value to other organizations than to the M’s, where he’s blocked in the rotation. To make a big-impact move might require dealing their No. 2 prospect Harry Ford, whose path to catching in the big leagues is complicated by the presence of Cal Raleigh.
3. Dodgers
Call us crazy, but we think the Dodgers are very much in a “World Series or bust” mindset after adding Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Teoscar Hernández over the winter. And while the Dodgers are in first place (per usual), there are questions (also per usual) about how well-situated they are for October, especially with the rotation ravaged by injuries.
Who they could land: Though Yamamoto, Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler could potentially form a dynamite October rotation, there’s enough iffiness baked into that equation that the Dodgers can’t be ruled out for any of the impact starters -- Skubal, Crochet, Jack Flaherty, Erick Fedde, etc. -- being discussed. Max Muncy’s slow recovery from an oblique issue could put the Dodgers in the market at third base, especially given the uncertainty that Mookie Betts will be right back to his MVP self when he comes back from a broken hand. And the Dodgers will target impact outfielders (Robert Jr.? Randy Arozarena?), too.
Who they’d have to trade away: The 10-year extension the Dodgers signed with catcher Will Smith could make the club’s No. 1 prospect Dalton Rushing or No. 7 prospect Diego Cartaya expendable. Moving a controllable young arm in Bobby Miller for a shorter-term solution would be interesting.
4. Yankees
The Yanks had the best record in the Majors as of mid-June, but they have one of the worst records in the time since. They have too much riding on their only year of control of Juan Soto to let this Deadline pass quietly. They will be active in searching for upgrades on a lineup too dependent on Soto and Aaron Judge (and lately, rookie Ben Rice), a bullpen that needs amplification and a rotation that has run into some roadblocks.
Who they could land: With third base a glaring need, the Angels’ Luis Rengifo (currently nursing a wrist injury) might make sense, as could the Rays’ Isaac Paredes (if a swap between division rivals is not off the table). Strikeout arms for the bullpen will also be a priority, with the Angels’ Carlos Estévez, the Blue Jays' Chad Green and the Marlins’ Tanner Scott among the more notable options.
Who they’d have to trade away: A deal involving Luis Gil or the aforementioned Rice would be fascinating … but is probably unlikely. With top prospects Jasson Domínguez, Spencer Jones and Chase Hampton having all dealt with injuries, the Yankees’ ability to swing an impact deal might hinge on their ability to come up with creative prospect packages or surrender low-Minors upside involving the likes of their No. 4 prospect Roderick Arias or their No. 6 prospect George Lombard Jr.
5. Guardians
You could make an argument for the Twins or Royals to be on this list, but it’s kind of starting to feel like the Guards need to go all-in just to stave off those two clubs, because the offense has cooled off and starting pitching has been a need all season. Having reached the top of the AL Central with minimal financial investment and their strong farm system intact (and now boosted by a Draft in which they had the largest signing bonus pool in history to work with), Cleveland’s front office is in a strong position.
Who they could land: This small-market squad has achieved consistent contention because of its ability to develop starting pitching, but this year’s team is noticeably short in that department. There might be some awkwardness in having some of the more enticing trade chips -- Flaherty, Crochet and Fedde -- in the division, but modern front offices have shown such situations to be surmountable. Outside the AL Central, the Rays’ Zack Littell and Zach Eflin, the Blue Jays’ Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Bassitt, old friend Cal Quantrill of the Rockies and Tyler Anderson of the Angels are some of the possibilities.
Who they’d have to trade away: The selection of Travis Bazzana at No. 1 overall added to a stash of young infielders that includes Gabriel Arias, José Tena, No. 6 prospect Juan Brito, No. 9 prospect Angel Martínez, No. 11 prospect Angel Genao, No. 12 prospect Welbyn Francisca, etc. The Guards could obviously employ that depth at the Deadline.
6. Astros
Those mid-May rumblings about Houston possibly dealing Alex Bregman or even Kyle Tucker at this Deadline sure look cute now, don’t they? The Astros might have begun the season 7-17, but they now are very much in the mix to possibly advance to the ALCS for an eighth consecutive year and there is no point in not seeing it through. Still, as inevitable as this franchise may appear, there are more warts than usual, and a weighty payroll and thinned system will make them difficult to address.
Who they could land: The pending returns of Justin Verlander and Luis Garcia will not dissuade GM Dana Brown from looking into external options for a rotation that was hit hard by injuries this season. Houston is also on the hunt for first base help after releasing José Abreu. Josh Bell, Mark Canha and Andrew Vaughn are among the options, but of course don’t sleep on Guerrero and Pete Alonso.
Who they’d have to give up: To make a deal for something other than a rental arm could require the Astros to be willing to part with a young Major Leaguer like starter Spencer Arrighetti or outfielder/first baseman Joey Loperfido or, perhaps, their lone Top 100 prospect in outfielder Jacob Melton.
7. Brewers
What we think should happen and what actually happens are often two very different things. The 2008 CC Sabathia swap notwithstanding, the Brewers aren’t ones to make an over-the-top acquisition and are already selling the pending returns of DL Hall and Devin Williams as their biggest impact moves of the second half. But with adequate rotation help, this young, fun roster has the potential to take advantage of its top division standing and make noise against the established NL powerhouses in Los Angeles and Philadelphia.
Who they could land: Any of the starting pitchers mentioned so far would make you feel better about the October outlook for a club that is reliant on Freddy Peralta, Colin Rea, Tobias Myers and the recently acquired Aaron Civale.
Who they’d have to give up: An impact trade might require the Brewers to deal from their depth of young Major League outfielders that includes Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell and Blake Perkins -- something the front office is loath to do.
8. Diamondbacks
In the muddled mess that is the NL Wild Card picture, it’s hard to know which clubs should be pushing their chips to the middle of the table. But we’re singling out the D-backs in that group because of the heavy lifting they already did in the wake of their run to the NL pennant last year. They took a franchise-record payroll into what has been a disappointing 2024 to date. But the possibility for improved health and performance for the rotation in the second half makes the D-backs dangerous.
Who they could land: Arizona was aggressive in pursuit of bullpen help last year with the addition of closer Paul Sewald, and it would not be a surprise to see the Snakes active in that area again. Estévez, Scott, Michael Kopech and Pete Fairbanks are some of the more notable names that could be available.
Who they’d have to give up: If it’s a major, major move, Brandon Pfaadt is a player of interest around the league, and shortstops Jordan Lawlar and Tommy Troy and outfielder Druw Jones are Top 100 prospects. If it’s a lesser deal, slugging corner infielder Deyvison De Los Santos is an interesting chip, given that the D-backs made him available in the Rule 5 Draft before he broke out at the Double-A and Triple-A levels this year.
9. Red Sox
Boston need not have a “World Series or bust” approach to this Deadline, but the front office should do what it takes to give this team the innings it needs and possibly stick it to the rival Yanks (among others). Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently said, “This team has put themselves in a position where we have to take them seriously.” That sure seems to imply the roster was not taken seriously before the season, although we could have guessed that from an offseason in which the acquisition of Lucas Giolito (who has yet to throw a pitch for the Red Sox) was the only major expenditure.
Who they could land: Pitching is the priority here. We’ve mentioned all of these guys elsewhere, but, to repeat, the Tigers’ Jack Flaherty, White Sox’ Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde, Rays’ Zack Littell and Zach Eflin, Blue Jays’ Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Bassitt, Rockies’ Cal Quantrill and Angels’ Tyler Anderson are among the known options. Elsewhere, a reunion with Justin Turner might make sense to support the lineup.
Who they’d have to give up: The Red Sox will likely stop short of any deal involving top prospects Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony or Kyle Teel. But with ample outfield depth, would they consider moving a young Major Leaguer like Wilyer Abreu in an impact trade? Or would they be willing to deal from their middle infield depth with No. 6 prospect Nick Yorke?