Skubal's struggles against Braves start with his changeup

Tigers left-hander lacks overall command of pitches as Detroit caps 1-5 road trip

June 19th, 2024

ATLANTA -- Tucked within the notes app of 's phone is a diary of sorts of his pro career. For years, the Tigers left-hander has jotted down observations and reflections after each of his outings, part of a between-starts routine he has maintained since his days in Detroit’s farm system.

Skubal will look for patterns and changes over the course of a season, or refer back to similar past stretches and how he handled them.

Once the emotions settle, Skubal will add an entry for Wednesday’s 7-0 loss to the Braves at Truist Park, about as rough of an afternoon as he has had on a mound since his first few starts back from surgery last July. And then, Skubal will start his routine with an extra task: Work his way out of his first real struggles of an All-Star caliber season.

Skubal was ready for the Braves. But the Braves were ready for him. Now it’s Skubal’s turn to adjust and refine.

“Today wasn’t a good day for me,” Skubal said.

All season, Skubal’s changeup has been his great equalizer, allowing him to handle right-handed hitters and make opponents pay for stacking lineups. But when Sean Murphy sent an elevated changeup a Statcast-projected 407 feet to left for a two-run home run, it marked the third homer off a Skubal changeup in his past four starts, joining Houston’s Mauricio Dubón on Friday and Texas’ Marcus Semien on June 2.

Atlanta attacked Skubal’s changeup, swinging at 16 of 24, according to Statcast. The Braves whiffed on seven and fouled off five, but the four they put in play averaged 91.6 mph in exit velocity -- 5.5 mph over his season average entering the game. Those balls in play included three of his seven hits.

“I think it’s more execution than it is what they’re sitting on,” said Skubal, who fanned Austin Riley on a changeup on his 83rd and final pitch of the day. “They can sit on a pitch, and if I still execute it, it’s hard to hit.”

Part of what made the Braves so aggressive against Skubal’s changeup might have been his struggles with other pitches. His four-seam fastball -- which topped out at 98.9 mph -- drew just four called strikes despite hitters taking 14 of 27. He also hit two batters, giving him four hit-by-pitches over his past three starts after hitting one batter over his first 12 starts.

“They hit a couple changeups, which changed his pitch selection a little bit,” manager A.J. Hinch said. “And when he tried to drive the fastball, he hit a couple guys. He was off today.”

Said Skubal: “Obviously, I’m not trying to hit a guy. But with a lineup like that against left-handed pitching, you have to pitch up-and-in if you want to have success.”

LIkewise, Skubal’s two-seam fastball drew just two called strikes and one swing-and-miss. Skubal found success with his slider once he went away from the changeup, but his struggles to consistently spot pitches and get ahead in counts left him vulnerable against a righty-loaded lineup.

“I didn’t command it well,” Skubal said.

Perhaps the biggest sign of Skubal’s discombobulation was a delivery to third, not home. Ozzie Albies had third base stolen easily when Skubal belatedly tried throwing over. Instead, he hurriedly sailed a throw to the Tigers’ dugout, plating his fifth (four earned) and final run.

“I probably should’ve held it, and then the run doesn’t even score,” said Skubal, who fanned Matt Olson and Riley afterwards.

To be fair, even if Skubal did have his command, his success would’ve been relative. Braves starter Reynaldo López scattered seven singles over five scoreless innings en route to Detroit’s eighth shutout loss of the year.

After last Saturday’s 13-run outburst in Houston, the Tigers scored three runs over their final four games of the road trip, their lowest-scoring four-game stretch since plating just two runs from June 14-17, 2022, a stretch that included an appearance from then-White Sox reliever López.

Nonetheless, Skubal’s individual success has been an elixir for Detroit’s inconsistent offense. Instead, the Tigers have been outscored by an 11-0 margin in Skubal’s last two starts, the bookends on a 1-5 trip that put Detroit six games under .500 for the first time this season.

“The approaches are fine,” Hinch said. “I think the executions right now, we’re not in a good place. It’s good that we’re getting an off-day. It’s time to go home. Obviously not a great trip here.”