Early Ohtani signals and 4 more takeaways from the GM Meetings
Mark Feinsand
@feinsandSCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- Much of the baseball world convened here this week for the General Managers Meetings, kicking off the 2023-24 Hot Stove season.
Executives gathered for their meetings, talking about the effects of the new rules changes, the state of pitching injuries in the game, transaction rules and a number of other on- and off-field issues. Pretty standard stuff for the annual get-together.
But those things aren’t the things that will keep the stove burning in the weeks and months ahead. The free-agent market will dominate the news, supplemented by a trade market that is expected to be active.
Here are five takeaways from this week’s GM Meetings.
Sho-time
Free agency officially commenced on Monday afternoon, and although many agents were in attendance in Scottsdale this week -- their own meetings are taking place on Thursday in the same city -- the GM Meetings mostly serve as the beginning of a lengthy process.
Still, one player’s name was uttered around the Omni resort more than any other: Shohei Ohtani. The presumptive American League Most Valuable Player is undoubtedly the top free agent available, and while the majority of executives around the league believe he will ultimately sign with the Dodgers, other clubs including the Giants, Mets, Red Sox and Cubs are expected to take their shot at signing Ohtani.
Those talks will likely begin to heat up after Thanksgiving, with many industry insiders predicting that Ohtani could make his decision by next month’s Winter Meetings in Nashville.
Manager mania
While many executives were arriving in Scottsdale on Monday morning, managers were making big news to kick off the week. The Mets hired Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza, while the Guardians turned the keys over to Mariners bullpen/quality control coach Stephen Vogt.
Then the Cubs hired former Brewers manager Craig Counsell -- who had been a candidate for both of the aforementioned jobs -- and created a buzz that went unrivaled for the remainder of the week.
“Nobody saw this one coming,” one NL executive said. “It’s pretty rare for something to happen that surprises literally everybody other than the parties involved.”
Managerial news continued on Wednesday when the Angels hired Braves third-base coach Ron Washington, leaving the Astros, Brewers and Padres as the last three teams seeking a new manager.
Laying the groundwork
There were two minor trades this week, both involving the Rays, but when the top decision-makers from all 30 clubs gather in one place for three days, trade discussions are bound to happen.
“This is an information-gathering situation,” one AL executive said. “Everybody is just starting to get a feel for which players could be available, what teams might be looking for and so on. But for some trades that happen later in the winter, invariably some groundwork for those moves will likely have been laid here this week.”
The biggest player potentially on the trade block is Padres All-Star Juan Soto, though GM A.J. Preller said he plans to discuss an extension with Soto. If the Padres can’t come to a deal with the outfielder, there will be plenty of interest if San Diego makes Soto available.
Another player who could be on the move is Nick Castellanos, as the Phillies are open to trading him, according to a source. Given the lack of depth in this year’s free-agent market, the trade activity this offseason could be plentiful.
Brian’s song
The highlight of the GM media availabilities came courtesy of the Yankees’ Brian Cashman, who went on a tirade against critics of the organization whom he believes are creating false narratives, mostly involving the club’s reliance upon analytics.
“There's a lot of stuff that's not accurate that's floating around about [how] analytics took us offline,” Cashman said. “The one thing we have is a very consistent, successful operation. Last year, obviously, is the first year in a long time we took a dip – and it happens. But the same people that were responsible for us having a lot of success are somehow being focused as the blame game for the reason [the 2023] season went south.”
Cashman noted that the Yankees have the smallest analytics department in the AL East (a statement that was difficult to fact-check) and the largest pro scouting department in the division, evidence that the club isn’t making all of its decisions based on numbers.
“Is that a shocker to everybody?” Cashman said. “It shouldn’t be, but no one’s doing their deep dives. They’re just throwing ammunition and [bull] and accusing us of being run analytically. Analytics is an important spoke in our wheel, but it should be in everybody’s wheel and it really is. It’s an important spoke in every operation that’s having success. There’s not one team that’s not using it. We’re no different. But to say we are guided by analytics as a driver, it’s a lie.”
First things first
The Phillies made news in Scottsdale when Dave Dombrowski announced that Bryce Harper would be the club’s full-time first baseman in 2024. That likely spells the end of Rhys Hoskins' time in Philly, where he’s played since he debuted in 2017.
Hoskins, who missed all of 2023 after suffering a torn ACL, is a free agent this offseason and should draw interest from a number of teams. Harper played 36 games at first base in 2023 after spending most of the year as a designated hitter following his return from Tommy John surgery.
The Phillies may have this plan in place, but with the possibility that Castellanos could be traded in the coming weeks or months, there’s always a possibility that the team pivots and returns Harper to right field, which would open the door for a Hoskins return. Dombrowski could also turn to the trade or free-agent market to fill right field if he deals Castellanos.