9 takeaways from new postseason projections
Last week, FanGraphs came out with its MLB Playoff Odds, a look at the chances each team has to make the playoffs, or win the World Series, in the upcoming season. On one hand, these are of course meaningless: The only thing that matters are the standings at the end of the season, and these projections are math trying to give us the illusion of a rational, logical universe. On the other hand, they can tell us a lot about the season we’re about to watch, and in a much more honest way than we’re likely to hear from the teams themselves. Numbers may not always be right. But they do not lie.
So here are nine takeaways from the Fangraphs Playoff Odds, odds that have already switched since I started writing this column and may change by the time you read it. Baseball is fluid, after all. And the numbers are always watching.
1) The Yankees aren’t the favorite to win the World Series. They’re not even the second favorite.
The Yankees went first in Mike Petriello’s and my draft of World Series favorites -- to be fair, we did that draft before Luis Severino was ruled out for the year -- but they’re third according to Fangraphs (behind the Astros and Dodgers), with a 13.4 percent chance of winning the World Series. Still, that’s a big number: That’s bigger than, say, the A’s, Braves and Nationals’ combined odds.
2) You’re not getting rid of the Astros that easily.
One of those two teams ahead of the Yankees? Yep, the Houston Astros, America’s Sweethearts, who have a 20 percent chance of winning the World Series, the best in all of baseball. That’s a 1-in-5 chance of the Astros winning the World Series and further driving a wedge in the baseball world. Computers and math don’t care about your off-field issues or those cascading boos. Heck, they might even be underestimating how much all their hit-by-pitches will increase their OBP! Either way: FanGraphs says the Astros have a 92.7 percent chance of reaching the postseason, extending this never-ending story deep into October.
3) The Dodgers are ridiculous.
The Dodgers were heavy favorites to win the National League West before they traded for Mookie Betts. Now it feels like it’s time to start calculating the magic number already. FanGraphs gives them a whopping 97.2 percent chance of reaching the postseason, including a 90.7 percent chance of winning the NL West. But any Dodgers fan will tell you: All that matters is that World Series-winning number. That’s 19.3 percent, just behind the Astros. Imagine if those two teams meet in the World Series again. Yikes.
4) The NL Central could be a beautiful mess.
The 2006 Cardinals are still being mocked for winning only 83 games that year en route to a stunning World Series victory, but those 83 wins in '20 would put them right in the thick of the NL Central race. According to FanGraphs, the first and fourth place teams in the NL Central will be within four games of each other. But those totals! The first place Cubs clock in with 84.4 wins, with the Reds (82), Cardinals (82.1) and Brewers (81.1) right behind them. A four-team race in September could be exciting, but watching these teams barely bob above .500 to make it might be less so.
5) Phillies fans might be about to lose it.
The Phillies won 80 games in 2018 and 81 in '19 and have been seen as a disappointment. So can you imagine what would happen if they only win 79 games this year, like FanGraphs projects them to?
6) The Red Sox absolutely should not give up.
Say what you will about the Red Sox’s disappointing 2019 season, but they must be doing something right when they can trade away their best player, one of the best players in baseball, and still have nearly 50 percent odds to make the playoffs. Do the Red Sox feel like a coin flip for the playoffs to you? Their odds of making the playoffs are currently higher than the Indians (41.1 percent), A’s (44.6) or any NL Central team.
7) Those poor Orioles.
According to FanGraphs, they have the toughest schedule of any team in the sport, with a projected opponent’s winning percentage of .514. That’s just piling on. The team with the easiest schedule, by the way? The Twins (.488)!
8) Mike Trout is likely going playoff-less again this year.
This is your periodic reminder that the best player in baseball, and one of the best of all time, still has never won a single playoff game, and only played in three postseason games all the way back in 2014. The odds that the Angels will sneak into October this year? They are at 17 percent. That’s lower than the Phillies.
9) The playoff bracket will look awfully familiar.
Projected postseason matchups?
National League
Wild Card: Braves at Mets
NLDS: Wild Card winner at Dodgers; Cubs at Nationals
American League
Wild Card: Red Sox at Rays
ALDS: Wild Card winner at Astros; Twins at Yankees
If the poor Twins have to play the Yankees again in the first round of the playoffs … well, I’m just sorry, Twins fans.
The good news is that while these are the most likely things to happen, they’re not actually likely to happen. When it comes to projections, the best bet, ultimately, is something we aren’t expecting. That is, after all, why this is fun.