Could Horwitz be long-term fit for Bucs at first base?

4:15 PM UTC

This story was excerpted from Alex Stumpf's Pirates Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Ever since the Pirates traded Josh Bell in the winter of 2020, the team has struggled to find a permanent solution at first base. They went to a veteran at the position for four straight seasons (Colin Moran in 2021, Yoshi Tsutsugo in ’22, Carlos Santana in ’23 and Rowdy Tellez in ’24), and unsurprisingly, the results were poor overall.

They’ll have another new first baseman next season, and they’re hoping this isn’t just a one-year rental, but rather a long-term solution for the position. At the Winter Meetings, the Pirates acquired Spencer Horwitz from the Guardians in exchange for Luis Ortiz and two Minor League pitchers.

“Overall, a good pickup that kind of helps us lengthen our lineup,” manager Derek Shelton said of Horwitz at the Winter Meetings. “We came into the offseason saying that we needed to improve our offense, and I think we have.”

Horwitz hasn’t quite cracked a full year of service time yet, but had a strong showing last season for the Blue Jays, slashing .265/.357/.433 with 12 home runs and 40 RBIs over 381 plate appearances. He did have some trouble with lefty pitchers and is inexperienced, but there are plenty of reasons why the Pirates were willing to give up a haul to pick up the young infielder.

Here’s a look at three of those reasons.

1. He hits breaking pitches.

It’s a breaking ball league, and few hitters really excel against sliders and curveballs anymore. The MLB batting average against breaking pitches was just .220 last season with a .369 slugging percentage, and hitters whiffed 32.7 percent of the time. It’s why so many pitchers are opting to pitch off of their breaking stuff rather than their fastball if it can get good results.

It’s normal for a rookie to struggle against breaking pitches, but Horwitz did quite well last season. In the Majors, he hit .256 with a .512 slugging percentage against breaking balls (with expected stats that mostly match that production), and he whiffed just 21.7 percent of the time. The sample size was on the small side -- only 98 plate appearances -- but he hit .313 against breaking balls in Triple-A last year too.

Horwitz has some traits that suggest he can continue to do well against breaking pitches. His chase (25.7%) and whiff rates (19.4%) are much better than average, showing he has a good feel for the strike zone and can get the bat to the ball. That leads to a low strikeout rate (18.4%) and a high walk rate (11%).

2. He squares up the baseball.

Horwitz doesn’t swing the fastest bat or generate the hardest of exit velocities (an 88.2 mph average), but he posted strong expected stats and peripherals because he’s able to connect with the sweet spot of the bat.

Baseball Savant registered his squared-up rate (or generating a close to peak exit velocity for a swing speed) at 27.3 percent. For reference, the only Pirate last year with a higher squared-up rate was Isiah Kiner-Falefa (35.7%), with Bryan Reynolds right behind him at 26.7 percent.

Talk of launch angles can draw eyerolls at times, but Horwitz found the sweet spot 37.4 percent of the time last season. Reynolds did so 37.5 percent of the time. Reynolds swings a faster bat, but he’s much more than that. He’s a sound hitter with some great swing traits. Results wise, Horwitz shares a lot of those traits with Reynolds.

3. He gets on base.

Horwitz has posted a double-digit walk rate at nearly every stop of his career, from Rookie ball to the Major Leagues. His on-base percentage in the Minor Leagues has been at least .391 every year since 2021.

And in context of the team he is joining, his .357 on-base percentage would have been the highest on the Pirates last season.

We don’t know where Horwitz would slide into Shelton’s lineup, but there’s a case to be made that he should bat leadoff. He probably isn’t going to hit for 20 or 30 home runs, so why not put him up top ahead of hitters who do have pop, like Reynolds and Oneil Cruz?

If he bats later in the order, he can still lengthen the lineup, but Horwitz isn’t the prototypical first baseman that the game celebrated for decades. He isn’t a 30-homer, 100-RBI guy, but he still creates runs. The question becomes, how will the Pirates utilize a hitter like that in their lineup?