Is a Triple Crown within reach for Judge or Ohtani?

6:29 PM UTC

Entering the final weekend of the regular season, MLB’s first Triple Crown in 12 years -- and second in 57 years -- remains a possibility.

Yes, it’s a rather remote possibility. Then again, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani both have made a habit of beating the odds to achieve extremely rare or even unprecedented feats. So would you really count them out?

The two MVP Award favorites are in similar positions. Both have home run and RBI titles locked up. Each trails his league’s batting average leader by seven points heading into the final three games of the season. Both races also have a third competitor who remains a threat. In addition, Judge’s Yankees and Ohtani’s Dodgers both clinched division titles and first-round byes on Thursday night, thereby giving both players an opportunity to potentially get a day of rest.

Here is a closer look at the math behind each player’s late Triple Crown charge.

American League (Judge)

Current rankings

  1. Bobby Witt Jr. (KC): .332 (209-for-629) -- Playing at ATL
  2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR): .3251 (197-for-606) -- Playing vs. MIA
  3. Aaron Judge (NYY): .3250 (180-for-554) -- Playing vs. PIT

How Judge can win

Let’s set aside Guerrero, because, with he and Judge in a virtual tie, the situation between them is pretty simple: Judge just needs to out-hit Guerrero the rest of the way.

For Judge vs. Witt, let’s break out some rough math.

  1. Witt has started all 159 games for the Royals this season, so a 162-game season is within reach. If that happens, and Witt maintains his average of roughly four at-bats per game, he will finish with 641 at-bats.
  1. On the other hand, let’s assume Judge sits out one game with the Yankees having clinched the division and bye. Because he walks a lot more than Witt, his average is closer to 3.5 at-bats per game, or seven over two games. That would take his at-bat total to 561.
  1. Here are a few scenarios based on those exact at-bat totals (all batting averages are taken out to four decimal places below to help break ties):

• If Judge goes 5-for-7 (finishing at .3298) … he would win if Witt went no better than 2-for-12 (finishing at .3292).

• If Judge goes 4-for-7 (finishing at .3280) … he would win if Witt went no better than 1-for-12 (finishing at .3276).

• If Judge goes 3-for-7 (finishing at .3262) … he would win if Witt went 0-for-12 (finishing at .3261).

National League (Ohtani)

Current rankings

  1. Luis Arraez (SD): .312 (196-for-629) -- Playing at AZ
  2. Marcell Ozuna (ATL): .310 (182-for-588) -- Playing vs. KC
  3. Shohei Ohtani (LAD): .305 (190-for-622) -- Playing at COL

How Ohtani can win

As you can see, Ohtani’s chances are lower than Judge’s, based on the fact that he is five points behind second place, rather than in a virtual tie. So we’ll include Ozuna in our math problem.

  1. The Padres have clinched a playoff spot but are no longer in the running for the NL West title, meaning they will begin play in the Wild Card Series on Tuesday. Based on that, let’s assume Arraez gets one game of rest in the final series. He would figure to get nine more at-bats over two games, finishing with 638.
  1. The Braves have five games left, including a makeup doubleheader against the Mets on Monday, and are in a close Wild Card race. Therefore, we’ll project that Ozuna plays all five games and gets 18 more at-bats to finish with 606.
  1. Like with Judge, we’ll assume Ohtani sits one game. That would put him in line for eight at-bats, but given that the Dodgers are at hitter-friendly Coors Field, let’s push that to nine, giving him 631.
  1. Here are a few scenarios based on those exact at-bat totals (all batting averages are taken out to four decimal places below to help break ties):

• If Ohtani goes 6-for-9 (finishing at .3106) … he would win if Arraez goes no better than 2-for-9 (finishing at .3103) AND Ozuna goes no better than 6-for-18 (finishing at .3102).

• If Ohtani goes 5-for-9 (finishing at .3090) … he would win if Arraez goes no better than 1-for-9 (finishing at .3088) AND Ozuna goes no better than 5-for-18 (finishing at .3086).

• If Ohtani goes 4-for-9 (finishing at .3074) … he would win if Arraez goes 0-for-9 (.3072) AND Ozuna goes no better than 4-for-18 (.3069).

Obviously, the range of possible outcomes is much wider than that, but the key point here is this: Either player could snatch a Triple Crown with a strong final series -- and some help from their competitors’ opposing pitchers.