Cardinals have decision to make with Helsley
This story was excerpted from John Denton's Cardinals Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
When several of baseball’s brightest stars convene in Las Vegas tonight for the All-MLB festivities, the glitzy event might serve as the unofficial coronation of Ryan Helsley and his authoring of the greatest season by a closer in the rich history of the Cardinals.
Helsley, who converted a franchise-record 49 saves in just 53 chances this past season, is up for the Trevor Hoffman National League Reliever of the Year Award along with All-MLB honors. Only two relievers will make the All-MLB First Team, and Helsley certainly made a strong case by having a hand in 56 of the Cardinals’ 83 wins and being unhittable most of the season.
The irony in all of this, of course, is that Helsley could be getting his flowers as the game’s best closer as the rebuilding Cardinals are contemplating whether to trade him away for a handsome haul of prospects. Why, you might wonder, would the Cardinals dare deal their longest-tenured homegrown product, a model player on and off the field and a pitcher who has struck out a whopping 34.6 percent of all hitters he’s faced since the beginning of the 2022 season?
Having missed the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, the Cardinals are planning to trim payroll in 2025 and shift their focus to their young core. That means some of their most accomplished veterans -- such as third baseman Nolan Arenado, starting pitchers Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz and Helsley -- could be dealt before the team hits Spring Training. Willson Contreras might have been on that list if he hadn’t agreed to switch positions from catcher to first base. Contreras has a no-trade clause in his contract, just as Arenado, Gray and Mikolas do, meaning they will have final say over any potential deals.
Arenado and Gray, who pledged their loyalties to the Cardinals previously by waiving opt-outs or signing in free agency, could be difficult to move because of the large sums of money they are still owed in heavily backloaded contracts. Mikolas and Matz are entering the final years of their contracts, meaning the Cardinals might have a hard time getting back top prospects in any potential swaps.
Helsley, however, is in the absolute prime of his career at 30 years old and his contract is team controlled for 2025. A relative bargain for $3.8 million in 2024, when he posted numerous career-best numbers and finished an NL-most 62 games, Helsley is projected to make $8.1 million after being arbitration-eligible for the third time, per Spotrac.
Those factors could make Helsley particularly appealing to championship-contending teams such as the Dodgers, Yankees, Orioles, Phillies or Braves. Might one of those teams be willing to part with two or even three Top 30 prospects for arguably the best closer in baseball?
On the flip side, if the Cardinals are truly focusing on developing their youth and not really in contention for a 12th World Series title, why do they need Helsley to close out their 70-80 wins in 2025? As lights-out as Helsley was in 2024 -- when he set a franchise record with 31 straight saves from April 2-July 2 and closed his season by not allowing an earned run over his final 17 2/3 innings -- he deserves to pitch for a franchise that’s truly trying to win it all.
If the Cards resist the urge to deal Helsley -- and they would be a better team by not doing so -- they need to be prepared to pay him $100 million this time next year. That would raise one of baseball’s most age-old questions: How much sense does it make to pay for a closer when they often pitch only one inning and are available for roughly 40 percent of the games?
The Astros paid $95 million for Josh Hader and the Mets shelled out $102 million for Edwin Díaz, both of whom struggled this past season. The volatility of the position reared its ugly head when Cleveland’s Emmanuel Clase -- regarded as the AL’s best closer -- was shelled for eight earned runs and three home runs in seven postseason games.
Conversely, Luke Weaver -- the 20th-highest-paid player on his own team at $2 million -- saved four games and got the win in another as closer for the Yankees. Blake Treinen, a 36-year-old reliever, picked up three saves and two wins for the champion Dodgers while making $1 million.
As front offices increasingly prioritize efficiency in their allocation of financial resources, the days of the $20 million closer could be numbered. Having a clutch closer such as Helsley still holds great allure for championship contenders, but the most well-run clubs realize they can piece together late-inning relief at a fraction of the cost of high-end closers.
These are just some of the questions the Cardinals will be asking themselves as they contemplate trading away one of baseball’s best closers.