Most teams have reached the official halfway point of the season, signaling that it’s neither “still really early” nor “getting really late,” as it relates to how optimistic a fanbase should be about its team’s chances to be playing in October.

Before the season started, the American League East division was predicted to be a four-team race. Is that still the case? Are the Yankees and Blue Jays to be counted in or counted out? A group of MLB.com reporters gathered to debate the topic.

Alyson Footer, editor/moderator: If this were another division, I’d look at the third- and fourth-place teams that are eight and 10 games back and sort of write them off as non-contenders. But I can’t do that with this division. I don’t feel that the Blue Jays are out of it and despite the five-alarm fire that has broken out among the fanbase in the Bronx, I can’t count out the Yankees, either. Am I giving those teams too much credit? Is this going to be between the Red Sox and Rays down the stretch?

Ian Browne, Red Sox beat reporter: It is institutionalized in me to never count out the Yankees. As bad as things look, [general manager Brian] Cashman could possibly make a creative deal or two before the Deadline that would change the energy of the team. Players could finally start performing at their expected levels. Also, the Blue Jays really did pound the Red Sox one weekend at Fenway, even though they split the four-game series. If they can get their pitching straightened out, they could go on a run. Plus, if they finally get something -- anything -- from George Springer.

Keegan Matheson, Blue Jays beat reporter: The optimism on the Blue Jays' side has to come from the strength of the lineup and the glaring, blatant weakness they're dealing with in their bullpen. Their lineup is capable of a postseason run -- and a deep one -- but that won't matter if late leads are being given up. That could be a simple fix and clear the tracks for a hot stretch, which the Blue Jays haven't had yet, but that needs to happen soon. This obviously looks like a Wild Card chase for Toronto.

Adam Berry, Rays beat reporter: I have a hard time writing off either the Yankees or the Blue Jays just because of what their lineups can do -- or in the Yankees' case, what their lineup should do. Both obviously have quite a bit of ground to make up, but there's a reason we entered this season expecting them to be in a competitive race atop the division: They have a ton of talent. Maybe it's not enough to catch all the way up, especially if the Red Sox keep doing what they're doing and the Rays get back to what they did from mid-May to mid-June, but it does feel a little early to write them off.

Bryan Hoch, Yankees beat reporter: Despite what's happening in the Bronx right now, the Yankees were still a team on paper that many expected to be not only division favorites, but also a potential World Series club. They have severely underperformed those expectations, in ghastly fashion, but most of the names are the same. Where are those back-of-the-baseball-card numbers? I never expected they'd have trouble scoring runs this year -- pitching was supposed to be the problem. And so, if somehow the lineup hits the way it was supposed to, they could slug their way back in the race by winning a bunch of 8-6 games. Would I bet money on it, though? Eh. Well, let's just say it's a good thing I'm not allowed to.

Bill Ladson, reporter: I think you are giving the Yankees and Blue Jays too much credit. I think the Yankees have to clean house. They remind me of those Yankees teams of the 1980s. You have too many designated hitters, and they need pitching. As far as the Blue Jays, I love their offense, but they need pitching in a big way. So, yes, it's Red Sox and Rays for the rest of the season.

Browne: Side note: I wonder how long the Rays can withstand the loss of Tyler Glasnow. If the Red Sox get Chris Sale back at full throttle and Glasnow is at less than full throttle or not there at all, that seems to be to be a huge swing in favor of the Red Sox.

Berry: We're seeing that happen right now, Ian. The Rays entered Saturday having lost 11 of their last 15, and the starting pitching has experienced a big drop-off since Glasnow went down. That said, their lineup is capable of more than what we've seen from them during this stretch -- Wander Franco hasn't really put it together yet -- and they just have so much depth. Their second-half schedule is also a little more forgiving.

Browne: The Red Sox and Rays with a huge series right at the Trade Deadline at the Trop. That ought to be really interesting to see what the GMs do to improve the two teams by then.

Footer: It does seem, in a way, that the Red Sox have the advantage, in that they might not have the same pressure on them as some of the other teams. (I can’t believe I’m saying this, given this is Boston we’re talking about.) But I feel like given their past couple of seasons, things are coming together a little quicker than maybe we thought they would. Maybe they’re playing the best because they’re able to be more relaxed?

Browne: I think it's more a case of the chip on their shoulder. They are playing that whole, “Nobody believed in us” card. Alex Cora is so good at pushing buttons. This team improved markedly the second he got back. Look, their top players are still the top players they had last season. And the difference in record is astounding. It's hard to imagine anyone else winning AL Manager of the Year at this point. Granted, Chaim Bloom did make a lot of subtle adjustments to the team, fortifying the bench and the pitching.

Matheson: I'd expected the Red Sox to be closer to the Blue Jays in the middle of this division when the season started, with the Yankees battling the Rays for first. Then again, I also expected the Blue Jays' bullpen to be a strength, and I wake up each morning hoping that nobody digs up my Vladimir Guerrero Jr. projections from February. "Nobody believed in us" Boston is the strongest of all the Bostons. Fear it.

Footer: Bryan, how much of a problem is the Yankees lineup?

Hoch: As I write this, they're being no-hit by Taijuan Walker. It's really been an impressive cocktail of not hitting with runners in scoring position and making outs on the basepaths -- they lead the Majors in that category. Aaron Judge has been their best player, but most of their lineup is league-average or worse. I'm especially mystified by the drop-off in DJ LeMahieu, who was their MVP the last two years.

Browne: I looked at the Red Sox as an 85- to 88-win team before the season started, even as many looked at them as a 75-win team. Our own Jim Banks flat-out told me they were a 90-loss team. But they have exceeded even my expectations because their success has led to an improvement of chemistry and their confidence. It is a classic "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts" team. I saw this also in 2013.

Ladson: It seems Alex Cora has made the difference. Almost everyone is performing up to their capabilities under his leadership. Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez are back to where they were two years ago. I remember when I covered Cora as a player, people were saying he would be a great manager. We are seeing once again that he makes the Red Sox relax and makes them perform up to their capabilities.

Browne: Devers was actually way better than two years ago. He has taken it to another level entirely. Xander Bogaerts said yesterday he is their best player.

Berry: I wonder about the depth of the Red Sox pitching staff and how it'll hold up in the second half, but like Ian said, they should get Chris Sale back at some point and you have to think Chaim Bloom will fortify a contending roster at the Trade Deadline to address any potential concerns.

Browne: Adam, you make a good point. The one thing the Red Sox have been very fortunate with is health. All five starters have made every turn, except for E-Rod missing his first start due to Spring Training dead-arm. Can they sustain this level of health in the rotation and in the bullpen? Now, Sale coming back sometime between Aug. 1-15 could make up for if they have an injury or two. But the health of this team overall has been outstanding so far, which is the most underrated reason for their record.

Ladson: When I watched the Red Sox last year, they looked dead. When I watch them now, I see a lot of energy on the field. That's all Alex Cora, I believe.

Footer: Chime in on this as it relates to the team you cover: The ____s' most frustrating Achilles heel is ___, and here is how might it be corrected in the second half.

Hoch: Yankees -- scoring runs. They're a lineup built around the three-run homer. That's how they're going to sink or swim. Get guys on, let guys like Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sánchez and Luke Voit be the "big, hairy monsters" that Brian Cashman envisioned. It's a flawed roster in so many respects. They slug, or they go home in October.

Matheson: The Blue Jays' most frustrating Achilles heel is their bullpen. In a perfect world, they get Julian Merryweather back, looking like he did in early April with a 100 mph fastball and closer's potential. Adding a Thomas Hatch or Nate Pearson (if healthy) could help, too, but the Blue Jays need outside help. This is an obvious weakness and shouldn't surprise anyone, so it wouldn't be surprising to see the Blue Jays attempt to jump the market again, like they did in acquiring Adam Cimber from the Marlins. Toronto should be able to use money and payroll flexibility in trades, and use it aggressively.

Browne: The Red Sox's most frustrating Achilles heel is the lack of a true leadoff hitter, even though Kiké Hernández has shown signs of life lately. Fans are frustrated that Cora won't lead Alex Verdugo off, but Cora loves his 2-5 combo of Verdugo-J.D. Martinez-Xander Bogaerts-Rafael Devers. The solution, to me, seems fairly obvious. One of the most anticipated Red Sox prospects in years is Jarren Duran. And he has speed and power and has been a leadoff hitter his whole life. When he finally arrives -- which I expect will be in the next month -- he goes into the leadoff spot and plays center field, and Hernández settles in as the second baseman. It's funny, they originally signed him to play second but he wound up in center instead.

Berry: The Rays' most frustrating Achilles heel is inconsistency. Through May 12, they were a .500 team. From May 13-June 14, they went 24-5. Then they lost seven straight and got outscored by 28 runs. Then they won four in a row and outscored opponents by 20 runs. And as I sit here writing this at Sahlen Field in beautiful Buffalo, they're on a four-game losing streak in which they've allowed 36 runs in 33 innings. And look, this is a lineup that hits homers, walks and strikes out a lot; those lineups tend to operate at the extremes, and you just have to capitalize on the hot stretches and survive the cold snaps. But they really need their pitching to stabilize at some point soon, because they're built on run prevention.

Footer: Lightning round! Who wins the AL East?

Browne: Red Sox.

Hoch: Boston.

Matheson: Boston.

Berry: I'll also say the Red Sox. Hard to argue with what they've done and the lead they've built.

Ladson: The Red Sox will win the East.