Ever since Roki Sasaki's agent, Joel Wolfe, met with the media at the Winter Meetings, there’s been speculation about which team might be the best fit to land the prized right-hander, who was recently posted by his Japanese team, the Chiba Lotte Marines.

As one executive put it when asked if his team was trying to land a meeting with Sasaki’s group: “Why wouldn’t everyone be trying?”

With Sasaki reportedly meeting with teams as early as this week, it seemed like the right time to look at the landscape and see which teams were best positioned to sign Sasaki, which is expected to happen between the start of the 2025 international signing period (Jan. 15) and the end of his 45-day posting period (Jan. 23).

Is everyone in?
Because Sasaki is beholden to the rules of the international signing period and bonus pools, there is a more level playing field than for other free agent signings. It’s been made clear that the bonus Sasaki receives to sign will not be the determining factor. The most any team could theoretically offer is the just more than $7.5 million that eight teams (the A’s, Brewers, Mariners, Marlins, Rays, Reds, Tigers, Twins) have in their '25 pools. The Giants have the smallest pool, at a little more than $4.1 million after they forfeited $1 million for signing free agent shortstop Willy Adames.

With the start of the '25 signing period less than a month away, a good amount of those bonus dollars may already be earmarked for signings beginning on Jan. 15, so freeing up money for Sasaki could require teams to make some late changes to their plans.

Adding to the feelings of potential parity are the comments Wolfe made about Sasaki possibly preferring a small- or mid-market team. That could open the door to all 30 clubs, though there are some executives with smaller-revenue teams who believe the pool of real candidates will eventually shrink down mostly to bigger market clubs on the coast.

Reality check: Why wouldn’t some teams be in?
OK, so if all 30 teams aren’t realistically going to be in the mix, why would some teams have an upper hand?

Market and revenue will matter in terms of how much Sasaki will want to consider who can offer the best extension down the line. That’s not something that can be discussed now, but it doesn’t take magical powers to understand which teams have the financial wherewithal to provide the best terms a year or two down the line.

Beyond the money, there are the variables Wolfe mentioned that come into play, including the part about a smaller or mid-market being more suitable for Sasaki's personality and his interest in teams who do well working with pitchers. The opportunity to win also has to be part of the equation, right?

One unknown variable lies within Sasaki himself. Does he want to be “the man” or is he willing, or does he prefer, to be in the shadow of others? The makeup of teams’ rosters could come into play as a result.

What does the industry think will happen?
MLB Pipeline is currently in the process of polling front offices for all 30 teams in the annual MLB Pipeline Executive Survey. As part of the questionnaire, executives were asked who they thought was the favorite to sign Sasaki. It should be noted that many of the responses came before the Wolfe media session, but two teams received nearly all of the votes:

Dodgers: 11
Padres: 7

The Giants and Rangers each received one vote. These teams all check some of the possible boxes. The Dodgers have a track record of spending big for elite talent, and they presumably would be able to do so to offer Sasaki an extension if his pitching translates to MLB as most expect it will. They've also been able to get the most out of pitchers, and there is the fact that Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto would welcome Sasaki with open arms.

The Padres could also be a very good fit for many of the same reasons, plus they’re more in the “mid-market” bucket. It’s also been reported that Sasaki is very close with Yu Darvish, and it’s expected that he’ll play some role in convincing Sasaki to head to San Diego. Having Hideo Nomo in the organization as a special assistant doesn't hurt, either.

The Rangers were the team to originally sign Darvish back in 2012, and they've had other successes with Japanese pitchers like Koji Uehara. It’s a big market, but not quite the same spotlight, and this would be a situation where Sasaki would become the headliner in the rotation right away.

The Giants don’t have the same kind of history with Japanese players, but the addition of Sasaki would help them vault right back into contention in the National League West and president of baseball operations Buster Posey recently talked about how excited they would be to add his talent to the top of the rotation.

What other teams are serious contenders?
There’s one other team out west that could be a very intriguing “dark horse” candidate: the Seattle Mariners. They definitely fit the smaller market bill and have a team poised to compete for the American League West crown, with the addition of Sasaki likely to make them clear favorites. The Mariners have done impressive work with their arms and would love to see Sasaki join young hurlers Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryce Miller in what is already perhaps the deepest rotation in baseball. Perhaps that would intensify talks about a Luis Castillo trade that was already buzzing in and around the Winter Meetings. And Ichiro could be a very good salesman.

Let’s not ignore teams not on the West Coast entirely. There are some who think the Cubs are serious players here, and after acquiring Kyle Tucker from the Astros, they clearly are thinking they can contend in the wide open NL Central. Plus they currently have Shota Imanaga in the rotation and Seiya Suzuki in the lineup.

In the AL, the Red Sox are very serious about making a pitch to the Sasaki team. The main selling point might be the history of Japanese pitchers having success and positive experiences playing in Boston: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Uehara and Junichi Tazawa. They have an impressive pitching development program and it certainly doesn’t hurt when the general manager, Craig Breslow, can speak directly to it (as opposed to just handing it off to “the experts”). Breslow also personally scouted Sasaki for one of his starts in Japan in September.

Some see the Yankees and Mets as underdogs because of Wolfe’s comments about smaller markets, but it would be a mistake to count out either New York team. The Mets have created a lot of buzz following their 2024 playoff run by signing Juan Soto, and Kodai Senga's successful transition from the Japanese pro ranks to MLB with the club could make their offer more appealing. The Yankees -- who also have a history of winning with players from Japan -- can point to a rotation where Sasaki could join Gerrit Cole and Max Fried.

The Phillies and Blue Jays may seem like they are on the outside looking in, but keep in mind when lists were made about which teams were in the running to sign Ohtani in 2017, the Angels never came up. The Phillies provide a winning environment and a solid pitching staff. They’ve never signed a Japanese player, but they did reportedly make a serious run at Yamamoto, offering him more money than the Dodgers did. Toronto might be even more of a long shot given their lack of postseason success and pitching development, but the Blue Jays are expected to make a strong play, perhaps leaning on the lack of media glare north of the border.