Inbox: Int'l prospect Arias on Top 100?
We’re always trying to throw something new at you at MLB Pipeline, and now is no different. Thanks to the tireless efforts of Jesse Sanchez, we have a brand new top international prospects list for you to peruse, now built out to 50 players for the first time. Take a look at the reports and which players your favorite team is likely to sign.
In honor of that list coming out, this week’s Inbox kicks off with some questions about the top prospect on it. But don’t worry, prospect fans, there was plenty of room to talk about other prospects and farm systems after that.
When the Yankees sign Roderick Arias, will he be our #1 prospect? And adding on to that, what will he rank in the Top 100? -- @v2_water
Once Roderick Arias is signed, where do you think he lands in the Top 100 Prospects list? -- @sir_knixo
Arias is the No. 1 guy on the aforementioned Top 50 International Prospects list, and the Yankees are the favorites to sign him. We talked about these two questions on this week’s Pipeline Podcast at length. Here’s where we basically landed:
As talented as Arias is, the 16-year-old switch-hitting shortstop from the Dominican Republic likely will not go on the Top 100 right after he signs (likely in January). It’s been very rare for us to add someone straight from the international list to the Top 100. Putting aside Shohei Ohtani, who is an outlier as an older player who was big league ready right away and, as we’ve seen, a bit of a unicorn. So that leaves Kevin Maitan (miss) and Jasson Dominguez (inconclusive) as the only two super-hyped international guys to go straight to the Top 100 after signing. So you can see why we’re both reluctant and think that Arias doesn’t quite measure up to “The Martian.”
That helps inform the second part of the question regarding his placement on the Yankees list. By now, you’ve deduced he wouldn’t be the No. 1 guy on the current list. And if he’s not on the Top 100, the highest he could go would be No. 5, behind recently added to the Top 100 Luis Gil. That seems a likely scenario, obviously without knowing what the Yankees farm system might look like by the time we’re working on our 2022 lists.
Who are some of the guys that you could see jumping into the Top 100 if they keep progressing? -- @Baseballplayaof
Another question we answered on the podcast this week, it’s always good to look ahead. I decided to hit up who we ranked as having the best farm system in baseball, the Baltimore Orioles, in choosing infielder Jordan Westburg. Baltimore took Westburg with the No. 30 overall pick (Competitive Balance Round A) in 2020 out of Mississippi State. We got good reports about Westburg’s size and athleticism during instructs last fall ,and he’s backed it up during his first full season of pro ball. Playing both shortstop and third, Westburg has hit his way across three levels, reaching Double-A, and he’s reached double-digits in home runs (11) and steals (15).
For his part, Jim Callis brought up two players. One is often-asked about Nick Yorke, the Red Sox’s surprise first-round pick in 2020 out of the California high school ranks. Turns out perhaps Boston was on to something, as the teenage second baseman earned a promotion from Low-A to High-A not long ago and is absolutely raking at the new level. Combined, he’s hit .334/.421/.523 through 83 games and also has double-digits in homers (12) and steals (11). The other player (Jim always has to bring up multiple names when asked for one; it’s endearing) is Marlins right-hander Eury Perez, the 6-foot-8 right hander currently No. 6 on Miami’s Top 30. Jim wrote about Perez in last week’s Inbox.
What playoff contending teams have the strongest Minor League system to continue their dominance for years to come? -- @TracyDavis260
The easy formula is to look at our recent farm system rankings and pick out the teams that rank highly who are contending for playoff spots. Yes, many of the teams at the top of those rankings are rebuilding, but there are some that fit into that Venn diagram of good big league team and strong farm system. A top five would look like this:
1. Mariners (No. 2 system; 3 1/2 games out of Wild Card)
2. Rays (No. 6 system; lead AL East)
3. Giants (No. 8; lead NL West)
4. Reds (No. 10; currently holding Wild Card spot)
5. Red Sox (No. 12; currently holding Wild Card spot)
The Rays are the standard-bearers, especially as a lower-revenue team that reached the World Series last year and the playoffs in 2019. They’ve found a recipe that’s allowed them to promote from within, trade for big leaguers when they need help and continue to find talent via the Draft, international signings and Minor League trades. The Dodgers, who dipped to No. 16 because of graduations and some huge trades, have been very good as well over the years at winning and developing talent at the same time.
How do I convince myself to believe in Oneil Cruz? Given his build, I can’t get over thinking that he’s Gregory Polanco part 2. -- @pmrodgersx
I’ve learned over the years that only you can convince yourself of something. And honestly, I really don’t know who Oneil Cruz will become when all is said and done. It has been good to see Cruz produce well in Double-A this year, though a forearm injury did sideline him for more than six weeks. Still, a .294/.350/.517 line with 14 steals is solid for the 22-year old in 50 games with Altoona.
At this point, I don’t think there are many who feel the 6-foot-7 Cruz will end up playing shortstop in the big leagues, so maybe he does end up in an outfield corner like his former organization-mate. But just because he’s big and perhaps will land in the same position doesn’t mean he has to follow in Polanco’s footsteps (A quick aside, though: From 2015-18, before his shoulder injury, Polanco accrued 6.5 bWAR, which isn’t too shabby.) It’s not like because they played for the same team they have to have the same career arc. I mean, why can’t Cruz develop into Giancarlo Stanton or Aaron Judge, both 6-foot-6 or taller? Now, I’m not saying Cruz has the same skillset as those two, but I will point out that Judge’s Double-A numbers, in 63 games at the level, at age 23, were .284/.350/.516. Sound familiar?