Rockies building toward future in second half

July 14th, 2023

This story was excerpted from Thomas Harding’s Rockies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

DENVER -- The Rockies entered the year realizing depth was a weakness, then proved it time and again by enduring frequent injuries.

Gold Glove second baseman Brendan Rodgers sustained a dislocated non-throwing shoulder early in Spring Training and missed the first half, but is close to a return. Left-handed pitcher Kyle Freeland apparently did the same to his non-throwing shoulder in the final game before the All-Star break, although the Rockies have yet to provide an official update.

In between was a pain sandwich. What may hurt the most is, unless there is turnaround, the Rockies could be headed to their first 100-loss season in club history.

That said, the Rockies are all about the future. No matter the loss total, any definite steps toward the future in the second half will mean the season is not a total loss.

But let’s break down the first half:

What we learned: A pain sandwich is hard to digest

When the Rockies return from the All-Star break, four of the starters they counted on won’t be healthy. Germán Márquez underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery in April.

Ryan Feltner hopes to recover from a fractured skull he sustained in May. Antonio Senzatela will have Tommy John surgery. He missed the first month recovering from knee surgery but sustained a sprained right elbow two starts into his return.

Add in significant time-loss injuries to outfielders Kris Bryant, Randal Grichuk and Sean Bouchard (injured in Spring Training), first baseman C.J. Cron and designated hitter Charlie Blackmon and the first half was quite unsavory. The bullpen is the healthiest position group, but it is without lefty Lucas Gilbreath (season-ending Tommy John surgery) and lefty Brent Suter, who is recovering from an oblique strain.

This isn’t even a complete list of injuries. For a team that could ill-afford any major injuries, given its lack of depth, this has been a taxing season. Not even strong first halves from All-Star Game MVP Elias Díaz, rookie shortstop Ezequiel Tovar and third baseman Ryan McMahon (after a slow offensive start) could pull the Rockies to respectability.

Likely Deadline strategy: Sell and make room

Going into the break, the most attractive trade pieces were lefty relievers Suter and Brad Hand, and righty reliever Pierce Johnson -- all seasoned playoff-race performers.

The Rockies could use hot streaks from Cron and outfielders Jurickson Profar and Grichuk.

A big decision could come if Díaz, off his All-Star accomplishment, attracts offers at what will be a high price at a premium position.

In many cases, deals may not bring immediate help as much as create playing time for younger players. That's what happened on Friday as the Rockies called up Michael Toglia and Tommy Doyle.

But it’s important to scout other teams’ Minor League systems, in hopes that deals bring in young players who pay off in future years. For example, the Rockies traded veteran corner infielder Mike Moustakas to the Angels for High-A righty Connor Van Scoyoc, who has a 2.79 ERA in 13 starts this season, the last two at Spokane in the Rockies system.

Key player: Kris Bryant

A season and a half into seven for $182 million, and Bryant has endured three significant injuries (back, and right foot twice) and played in 100 games. His .771 OPS is well below the .886 he provided in seven seasons with the Cubs and Giants. So production matching dollars is beside the point, although homers like this one launched in Houston are nice.

But let’s look at the Rockies’ guiding light, Todd Helton. He was past his peak production by the playoff seasons of 2007 and 2009, and the 2010 team was the Rockies’ best to not make the playoffs. Helton’s power had declined, but in winning years he managed strong batting averages and on-base percentages, provided enough home runs and extra-base hits to bat in key lineup spots, and held and communicated standards to younger players.

Let’s see if Bryant can turn into a Helton-type player in the second half -- and remain that way.

Prospect to watch: Yanquiel Fernandez (No. 3)

Some of the best stories of any rebuild are the prospects who blow through development steps until it’s impossible to keep them out of the Majors. Fernandez, 20, looks headed that way. He began the year in Single-A, but earned a promotion to Double-A -- where (entering this week) he had five home runs and a .578 slugging percentage in his first 15 games.

Fernandez also turned heads at the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game with a solid single and a 103.3 mph throw from right field.

Last year, Tovar, barely 21, forced his way to a September callup, and this year has become a big part of the future.