4 top pitching prospects on course to make debuts in '22
GOODYEAR, Ariz. -- If MLB's new expanded playoff had been in place in 2021, the Reds would have earned a Wild Card berth. Nevertheless, they've spent much of this offseason shedding salary and opened a couple of spots in their rotation by waiving Wade Miley and Sonny Gray. Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle also were rumored to be on the block but apparently will stay put for now.
Cincinnati should have more certainty in its rotation in the very near future. Four of its best prospects are starters on course to make their big league debuts in 2022.
Right-hander Hunter Greene (No. 2 overall, 2017) and left-hander Nick Lodolo (No. 7, 2019) were the first pitchers selected in their Drafts. Lodolo's friend and fellow former Texas Christian southpaw Brandon Williamson just arrived in the Jesse Winker/Eugenio Suárez trade with the Mariners. Righty Graham Ashcraft (sixth round, 2019) is far less heralded but no less effective and led the system with 11 victories, a 3.00 ERA and a .212 opponent average last season.
Reds vice president of player development Shawn Pender acknowledged the hope that Greene, Lodolo, Williamson and Ashcraft eventually will turn the club's rotation from a question mark to a strength.
While Greene is most famous for a fastball that reaches triple digits regularly and has hit 105 mph, he has made significant progress with his secondary pitches. That helped him dominate in Double-A and hold his own in Triple-A at age 21 despite losing the previous two seasons to Tommy John surgery and the pandemic shutdown.
"Hunter's ability to land his slider and put it where he wants has gone up a full grade and I don't think he's done," Pender said. "His changeup has gotten a lot better. His command and control have gotten a lot better. He's such a good athlete."
Lodolo rode some of the best control and command in the Minors to Triple-A midway through his first full pro season, though he was shut down with a mild shoulder strain in August. His polish sometimes overshadows his solid three-pitch arsenal, which was evident when he struck out four Guardians in two perfect innings during his first Cactus League outing of the spring.
"The consistency of Nick's breaking ball has now increased to the point where he can command it to both sides of the plate, and his changeup has taken a jump," Pender said. "He has pitchability and command, he has natural deception and he's smart. In his first game out here, he got guys out by using all three pitches and locating."
The key prospect in the Winker/Suárez deal, Williamson features a plus fastball and curveball and flashes a slider and changeup nearly as good. A second-round pick in 2019 after teaming with Lodolo in TCU's rotation, he also pounds the strike zone, adding to his potential No. 3 starter package.
"We like his four-pitch mix and natural deception," Pender said. "Like Nick, he's come very quick through the system and has success. He's very professional and prepared and wants to improve. The Mariners did a nice job with him."
Ashcraft reached 98 mph with his fastball in college at Alabama-Birmingham but also missed a full season following hip surgery and battled the strike zone. Now he runs his lively heater into the triple digits, owns a harder slider with more depth and shows more reliable overall control.
"Graham has a power two-pitch mix and his third pitch is getting better," Pender said. "The life on his fastball is natural cut, so he's throwing a 96-97 mph cutter or working the top of the zone and getting ride. His slider has both depth and crossplane action, and he's getting more consistent with it. He's just so physical and very aggressive."
Camp standout: Elly de la Cruz
De la Cruz zoomed from an unknown Dominican Summer Leaguer in 2019 to a Top 100 Prospect after showing five-tool potential while batting .296/.336/.538 with eight homers and 10 steals in 61 games between Rookie ball and Single-A. Signed for just $65,000 out of the Dominican Republic four years ago, he has carried that momentum into this spring, where he has continued to impress with his physical ability as well as his makeup. He could wind up at third base, shortstop or center field and can make an impact offensively and defensively at any of those spots.
"He always plays the game with a natural joy that you wish everybody had," Pender said. "He has a great work ethic, and once he got stronger, his bat got quicker, his power got greater and even his speed and arm increased. It all added up to great tools."
Breakout potential: Daniel Vellojin
Another bargain international signing from 2018, Vellojin turned pro for just $10,000 out of Colombia that January. A catcher, he spent his first two pro seasons in the DSL before making the jump to Single-A last year, where he batted .247/.401/.403 despite dealing with a hamate injury and threw out 43 percent of basestealers. The Reds are eager to see what he can do while fully healthy.
"Daniel is a very mature receiver and a good gamecaller with a strong arm," Pender said. "He's a switch-hitter who has shown himself to be a very good on-base percentage guy. He has grown physically and has enough power to be dangerous."
Something to prove: Austin Hendrick
The best prep power prospect in the 2020 Draft, Hendrick went 12th overall and signed for $4 million. The pandemic delayed his pro debut until last summer, when the outfielder went straight to Single-A and batted .211/.380/.388 with seven homers and a 38 percent strikeout rate in 63 games. Dealing with groin and wrist injuries didn't help, but he also got too pull-happy and launch-crazy.
"Austin is doing well this spring," Pender said. "He has lost weight and is in very good physical condition. We told him he should lose some weight in his core and hips, and he lost 19 pounds on his own. We've seen some growth and he's not chasing a ton. His bat speed is tremendous."