Can Reds carry early success into second half?

July 12th, 2023

This story was excerpted from Mark Sheldon's Reds Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Surprise: The Reds are not only contenders for the National League Central title, they will open the second half of the 2023 season in first place.

It's safe to say few expected that from a team that was supposed to be rebuilding and at least a year or two away from making hay in any races. At the All-Star break last year, the Reds were 34-57 and on their way to a 62-100 record. There is no debating that it's been a remarkable and quick turnaround to contending.

This season, Cincinnati is 50-41 while sitting one game ahead of the Brewers, who they will play coming out of the break at Great American Ball Park and again in Milwaukee from July 24-26.

The Reds' success has been largely sparked by rookies, including Spencer Steer, Matt McLain, Andrew Abbott and Elly De La Cruz. Steer is the team leader in home runs (14), McLain is putting up strong numbers in OPS (.878) and OPS+ (129) while De La Cruz has unquestionably brought the excitement. In only 30 games, he is already tied with Jake Fraley and TJ Friedl with the team lead with 16 steals. Cincinnati is also 23-8 since De La Cruz arrived on June 6.

An ability to score a lot of runs -- the Reds have the third most in the NL and fifth in MLB -- has picked up the rotation, which has been beat up by injuries, inconsistency and a lack of innings.

Cincinnati starters are ranked 28th in MLB with a 5.69 ERA. The bullpen has performed admirably in backing up starters, but at some point, relievers run the risk of wearing down.

What we learned in the first half
The Reds tailored their offensive approach to the personalities of the young players and the plus speed they have. Manager David Bell stressed an aggressive style of baserunning, whether it's taking the extra base on a hit or stealing. A team that had 58 steals for all of 2022, the 2023 Reds had 50 steals just in the month of June and 112 overall to lead MLB. It's helped the team score more runs and keep opponents off balance.

Likely Trade Deadline strategy
General manager Nick Krall has made it clear the Reds would like to be buyers. The club has a clear need for a veteran starting pitcher who can provide deeper outings. Supplementing the bullpen would also be useful. Cincinnati has a deep farm system with coveted prospects and a few big league players who are moveable. The unanswered question ahead of the Aug. 1 Trade Deadline: How much prospect capital is Krall willing to deal to meet what is expected to be very high demand for pitching?

Key player
Starter Hunter Greene is working his way back from a right hip injury and is targeted for an August return. The right-hander was pitching well just before he went on the injured list on June 19, retroactive to June 18. Having Greene, along with fellow injured starter Nick Lodolo (left tibia) would be an added late-season boost to the rotation in a pennant race beyond what any Trade Deadline move might bring.

Prospect to watch
Corner infielder Christian Encarnacion-Strand -- ranked by MLB Pipeline as the Reds' No. 6 prospect -- is the next key young player, looking to follow in the footsteps of McLain, De La Cruz and Abbott, and earn his first promotion to the big leagues. Encarnacion-Strand, a right-handed power bat who would likely get time at first base, has 20 homers while batting .321 with a 1.012 OPS at Triple-A Louisville.