7 burning questions for Red Sox this winter

October 28th, 2024

This story was excerpted from Ian Browne's Red Sox Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

BOSTON -- Whether the World Series between the Dodgers and Yankees ends in a four-game sweep or a seven-game classic, this is the last week baseball will be played this season. That means it’s time to start getting primed for Hot Stove Season.

Here is a look at what’s cooking for the Red Sox over the next few weeks.

Which players will become free agents?
OF Tyler O’Neill, RHP Kenley Jansen, RHP Chris Martin, RHP Nick Pivetta, RHP Lucas Sims, RHP Luis García, C Danny Jansen

Are any of them likely to receive qualifying offers, and what is the deadline for that?
It is conceivable that O’Neill, who belted 31 homers in 411 at-bats in 2024, could receive the $21.05 million qualifying offer. That would be a sizable bump from the $5.85 million salary he earned this season after being traded from the Cardinals to the Red Sox. However, O’Neill might be seeking a multi-year deal. By extending O’Neill the qualifying offer, it would guarantee the Red Sox Draft compensation should he sign elsewhere. Qualifying offers must be extended by the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series. Any player who receives a qualifying offer must accept or reject it by 4 p.m. ET on Nov. 19.

Which players have options, what’s the dollar figure and impact on payroll and when does it need to be decided upon?
Right-hander Lucas Giolito has a $19 million player option that he is sure to exercise after missing all of 2024 following an internal bracing procedure on his right elbow. The Sox hold a $2 million club option on Rob Refsnyder, who is excellent against left-handed pitching. Option deadlines are five days after the conclusion of the World Series.

Who might be a non-tender candidate, and when does the club have to make that decision?
The Red Sox don’t have any non-tender candidates, as Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford are the club’s only arbitration-eligible players, and all three are important to the team’s present and future. By 8 p.m. ET on Nov. 22, teams must formally tender contracts to unsigned players for the following season, including their arbitration-eligible players. If a player is non-tendered, he becomes a free agent.

Who needs to be added to the 40-man roster this winter to avoid the Rule 5 Draft?
Five of Boston’s Top 30 Prospects must be protected to avoid inclusion in the Rule 5 Draft: OF Jhostynxon Garcia (No. 12), OF Allan Castro (No. 19), RHP Hunter Dobbins (No. 21), RHP Yordanny Monegro (No. 25) and 3B/1B Blaze Jordan (No. 26). The deadline for clubs to add players to their 40-man roster and protect them from the Rule 5 Draft is Nov. 19 at 6 p.m. ET.

What kind of help do the Red Sox need, and will they be active in free agency? Who might they target?
To end their three-year postseason drought, the Red Sox need to get a front-line starting pitcher, some more power arms in the bullpen and a key right-handed bat or two to balance out the lineup. Corbin Burnes could be an enticing ace after proving with the Orioles that he can handle the American League East. Pete Alonso would give the club a high-impact bat from the right side. Teoscar Hernández, the right-handed-hitting outfielder the Red Sox courted last year, will again be a free agent. Particularly if O’Neill departs as a free agent, Hernández would be a perfect fit in Boston.

Who might they be willing to trade?
First baseman Triston Casas could be the one core player from the Major League roster the Red Sox would consider trading. He is left-handed like many of Boston’s best hitters. Also, moving Casas could give Boston the flexibility to move Rafael Devers off third base. Improving their infield defense is another top priority. If Casas was traded and Devers moved to first or DH, the Sox could sign someone like Alex Bregman to play third.