How Rays benefit from AL Wild Card chaos

October 3rd, 2021

NEW YORK -- The Rays already knew when and where their postseason run would begin: Thursday, in Game 1 of the American League Division Series, at Tropicana Field. They just don’t know who else will be there.

For now, after capping the most successful regular season in franchise history with a 1-0 loss to the Yankees on Sunday afternoon, they must wait and wonder. And prepare for the possibility of another ALDS showdown with the Yankees.

The highest-scoring lineup in franchise history was held in check Sunday by starter Jameson Taillon and a parade of Yankees relievers, but Michael Wacha and three Rays relievers shut down the Yanks for eight innings. New York put runners at second and third base in the ninth with a pair of singles off lefty Josh Fleming, and Aaron Judge hit a walk-off single past top reliever Andrew Kittredge, allowing Tyler Wade to dash home.

Judge’s grounder to end Sunday’s game in the Bronx set off a massive celebration at Yankee Stadium, as it guaranteed New York a spot in the AL Wild Card Game on Tuesday -- meaning these division rivals could very well meet again in a few days.

But one tiebreaker scenario for the other spot was still in play as the Blue Jays beat the Orioles, the Red Sox were up on the Nationals and the Mariners were trailing the Angels.

When the final day of the regularly scheduled regular season began Sunday, there were four teams -- the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Mariners -- still in the mix for two AL Wild Card spots. As the Rays’ 162nd game began at Yankee Stadium, there was a chance the tiebreaker scenarios could lead to a Game 163 on Monday and perhaps Game 164 on Tuesday before even getting to the AL Wild Card Game and then, finally, ALDS Game 1.

Regardless of which team the Rays face, they can take a moment to appreciate all they’ve already accomplished this year. They won 100 games for the first time. They led the Majors in runs scored. They owned the AL’s best ERA. Even their Minor League teams put together the best organizational winning percentage in baseball, with all but one affiliate winning their league championships.

The Rays became just the 19th AL team in the Wild Card era (since 1995) to reach the 100-win mark. Of the previous 18, seven reached the World Series and four won it all: the 2018 Red Sox, 2017 Astros, 2009 Yankees and 1998 Yankees.

“I think this is what baseball wants,” manager Kevin Cash said before the regular-season finale. “It’s an exciting day for baseball. … It doesn’t seem like there’s not going to be some type of [Game] 163 or play-in game.”

Simply put, the more win-or-go-home games the Rays' potential AL Division Series opponent has to play between today and Thursday benefits them.

“You’re talking about using more pitchers, not being able to rest guys that maybe need some rest before going into a game or a series,” Cash said. “That havoc could create all those issues.”

The Rays are no stranger to this kind of chaos. Everyone remembers the wild finish to the 2011 season, but two years after that, they played a must-win Game 162 in Toronto to force a tie-breaking Game 163 in Texas the following day, then traveled to Cleveland for the AL Wild Card Game, then went to Boston for the ALDS.

The Rays are confident they can make another deep postseason run no matter who they face in the best-of-five ALDS -- and they’ve been admirably focused on winning each day down the stretch, despite having already clinched everything they can. But they obviously have an interest and competitive motivation in watching how the Wild Card race shakes out.

Which opponent would the Rays prefer to see? Based on regular-season results, it might be the Yankees. Tampa Bay is 11-7 against New York this season entering Game 162, 11-8 against Boston and 11-8 against Toronto -- although the Blue Jays occasionally gave the Rays fits with their deep lineup and top-of-the-rotation arms.

The only Wild Card contender the Rays had a losing record against this season was the Mariners, who won six of seven matchups against Tampa Bay while outscoring the Rays, 38-21. Granted, two of those games required extra innings and three were walk-off losses, showing how close they were, but it might come as a surprise that the Rays fared worse against Seattle than any of their 90-plus-win division rivals.