'Bring the energy': Rays' keys to winning G5

Glasnow starts on 2 days' rest; Lowe, Choi, Fairbanks in spotlight

October 9th, 2020

Even after Thursday night's 5-1 loss to the Yankees in Game 4 of the American League Division Series at Petco Park, the Rays remain one win away from advancing to their second AL Championship Series in franchise history. They’ll just have to work a little harder to get there.

Standing in their way is Friday’s winner-take-all Game 5 and Gerrit Cole, the same pitcher who eliminated Tampa Bay in Game 5 of last year’s ALDS as a member of the Astros. That was the fourth straight ALDS the Rays lost since beating the White Sox on their way to the World Series in 2008. They’ll send -- who lost that 2019 elimination game vs. Cole -- to the mound on two days' rest to try to ensure history won’t repeat itself.

“Who said this was going to be easy?” said Rays shortstop . “Tomorrow is going to be one of the most important games for everybody in the clubhouse, and we’re coming to win. We have to do everything we can and bring the energy.”

Energy alone, of course, won’t be enough. Here are some other ways the Rays need to execute to redeem themselves in Friday’s Game 5 rematch:

1. Get to Cole early
Let’s revisit what happened in last year’s Game 5: The Astros pounced early and often on Glasnow, scoring four times in the first inning and knocking him out in the third. The Rays got a second-inning Eric Sogard homer but managed only one other hit, and Cole whiffed 10 over eight dominant innings.

If there is a time to get to Cole, it’s before he gets rolling -- his 4.19 career first-inning ERA is higher than in any other frame before the seventh. The Rays were able to get a run in the first and two middle-inning runs off Cole in Game 1 of this ALDS, but he outpitched all the same. It would behoove them Friday not to wait. It warrants mentioning that Cole will be on short rest as well (three days), something he also has never done before.

“We’re going to have to pick up good at-bats right out of the gate, and get his pitch count up,” manager Kevin Cash said. “We’ve seen him. We know him a little better now. We know them and they know us.”

2. Glasnow must keep the Yankees in the park
Maybe you’ve heard this before, but it bears repeating: home runs are important. That’s never been more true than during these playoffs, when the team that outhomers its opponent is now 20-1 when doing so. The Rays have scored 77 percent of their runs this postseason via the long ball. The Yankees are at 69 percent, after using Luke Voit and Gleyber Torres homers to capture Thursday’s win.

Limiting that damage will be as vital as anything for Glasnow, who allowed all four of his Game 2 runs on Giancarlo Stanton homers. And it’ll be especially key against Cole in a game with razor-thin margins for error. Glasnow is less of a fly-ball pitcher than Cole is, though they did allow homers at an almost identical clip during the regular season. It’s a dynamic worth watching come Friday.

“We’ve battled with them ever since I’ve been here,” Glasnow said. “They’re a great team. I don’t think anybody came in here expecting anything less. It’s been challenging for both sides.”

3. Get the ball to Nick Anderson ASAP
All hands on deck means Snell should be available behind Glasnow, giving Tampa Bay’s lights-out bullpen another Cy Young Award-caliber weapon. But Cash’s most important decision might be when he turns to fireman , who pitched to a 0.55 ERA during the regular season and has allowed one run over 4 2/3 innings this postseason.

With 30 strikeouts in 21 total innings, Anderson is simply as automatic as it gets. He will be on two days' rest and probably good for at least six outs, if not more.

Needs to break out: Brandon Lowe
The Rays’ best offensive player during the regular season, is just 2-for-23 (.087) this postseason and hitless in 15 at-bats in the ALDS. He drove in a run on a fielder's choice and walked Thursday. So far, ’s breakout and contributions up and down the Rays' lineup have done well to overshadow Lowe’s struggles.

But when the Rays’ offense is at its best, it’s with Lowe hitting. The second baseman hit .269/.362/.554 with 14 homers and a 2.3 fWAR during the regular season, leading qualified Rays batters in almost every major statistical category and ranking sixth among AL position players in WAR. In this evenly matched series, his slump has been a factor.

“He’s been our best hitter this year. He’s going to get out of it, and it would certainly be nice if it was tomorrow, for sure,” Cash said. “He’s the guy we want up there in those [big] spots.”

Pick to click: Ji-Man Choi
Who else could it be? is the mongoose to Cole’s cobra -- nobody is a tougher out for the game’s highest-paid pitcher than the Rays’ first baseman. Homering off Cole in Game 1, Choi improved to 10-for-19 (.526) with four homers lifetime against Cole.

He is one of four players to take Cole deep four times, and he hasn’t homered against any other pitcher more than twice. Choi is also 5-for-11 lifetime at Petco Park, with all five hits going for extra bases. On paper, he’s the best matchup the Rays will have Friday against one of the game’s top pitchers.

Will need to deliver key outs: RHP Pete Fairbanks
While it’ll likely be Anderson receiving the ball in the game’s highest-leverage situation, there are probably going to be big outs to get after that, also. The smart money is on Cash turning to , who worked around two walks to close out Tampa Bay’s Game 2 victory and hasn’t seen the mound since.

That’s by design: Cash has been careful to shield his top three relievers from games in which the Rays are trailing, rather than chasing wins in a series that will now certainly span five games in five days.

All bets will be off in Game 5; expect to see not just Anderson and Fairbanks, but as well. Fairbanks was interestingly one of the few Rays relievers not to record a save this year, but his upper-90s fastball and wipeout slider profiles well for the ninth inning if Tampa Bay needs him there again. Fairbanks punched out one-third of the hitters he faced this season, and he’ll be plenty rested.