Key stretch ahead as Rays open second half

July 19th, 2024

This story was excerpted from Adam Berry’s Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

NEW YORK -- You hear it all the time in sports: Each game counts the same. The stakes may change, but the game itself doesn’t. They all matter. They’re all important.

But, well, the next 10 days are really important for the Rays.

The Rays reached the break with a .500 record (48-48) for the 21st time this season, a fitting place for a club that hasn’t moved too far above or below that point all year. They’re 10 games behind the American League East-leading Orioles but somehow still only 5 1/2 games out of the third AL Wild Card spot, albeit with the Majors’ most difficult schedule ahead of them.

Where the Rays stand after these next 10 days could influence what president of baseball operations Erik Neander does at the July 30 Trade Deadline, which could very well dictate whether Tampa Bay is playing meaningful games in August and September.

That puts a pretty big spotlight on the Rays’ four games at Yankee Stadium, three games at Rogers Centre in Toronto and three more against the Reds at Tropicana Field coming out of the All-Star break. That stretch, which begins Friday, will take them to July 29, an off-day. The next time the Rays take the field after that, the Trade Deadline will have come and gone.

With that in mind, let’s look ahead to Tampa Bay’s second half.

One second-half goal: Maintain momentum
The Rays’ first half was perfectly encapsulated by their record. But they finished much better than they started (14-9 in their last 23 games), winning series (seven of their last eight) and improving their overall quality of play, leaving them within striking distance of the final AL Wild Card spot. The Rays had a 4.46 ERA after 73 games but dropped that to 3.35 over their final 23 games, thanks to better pitching and significantly better defense.

Their offense remains an issue, although key hitters such as Randy Arozarena, Yandy Díaz and Brandon Lowe have been better lately; Arozarena has an .833 OPS since June 1, with Díaz at .817 and Lowe at .907. But with the Trade Deadline looming, have they shown enough to stay together?

Likely Trade Deadline strategy: Buy and sell with 2025 in mind
The Rays’ relatively strong first-half finish brought them back to .500 and kept them on the periphery of the AL’s postseason picture. Neander often references the club’s goal to reach the postseason as often as possible, so it’s not like they’ll punt if they have a chance to play in October. But the Rays tend to take a more measured approach to the Deadline when they’re not in position to win the division.

What does that mean? The Rays could capitalize on a seller’s market by moving productive but increasingly expensive veterans -- Zach Eflin? Lowe? Isaac Paredes? -- while retooling their roster to stay competitive down the stretch and be even more of a threat next season.

Key player: OF
After struggling during his first real opportunity with the Rays in 2022 (.627 OPS in 52 games), Lowe appeared to break out last year, when he slashed .292/.335/.500 with 20 homers, 33 doubles, 32 steals and 83 RBIs in 135 games. The Rays entered Spring Training with high hopes for Lowe, and he had even higher expectations for himself. But injuries sidelined him until May 6, and he missed more time in late May/early June.

Lowe hasn’t been himself since then, either, batting just .196/.269/.340 with a 34.3% strikeout rate in his last 30 games. Lowe is a key part of Tampa Bay’s lineup, now and moving forward, so it’s critical for the Rays that he finally hits his stride after the break. You’ll find few players more motivated to do so.

Prospect to watch: 3B
The Rays’ No. 1 prospect jumped straight from Double-A Montgomery to the Majors and debuted earlier than expected last September because their injury-riddled lineup needed another option against left-handed pitching. But it’s been a long road back to the big leagues for Caminero, one that’s included months with Triple-A Durham and two stops on the injured list due to left quad issues.

But Caminero was reinstated from the Minor League IL to Triple-A Durham on Friday, as expected, and as MLB Pipeline’s No. 3 overall prospect, he remains one of the most intriguing hitters in the Minors. If he proves he’s healthy and gets his timing back, he could make a big impact on Tampa Bay’s lineup at some point down the stretch.