Rays' Toronto set a sneak peek of October?
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TORONTO -- The Rays and Blue Jays are going to see a lot of each other over the next few weeks.
The American League East rivals are in the middle of a four-day, five-game series here at Rogers Centre. Then, the Rays will return home to Tropicana Field for three games against the Rangers, three against the Astros and … four more against the Blue Jays, the team they began the week leading by a half-game in the tightly packed AL Wild Card standings.
This could be a sneak peek at a potential Wild Card Series, depending how this all shakes out. Still, the Rays are saying all the right things about the way they view these important (and long) stretches against the Jays.
“Every game from here on out for us is very important, because it is a tight race and there's a lot of teams competing,” starter Jeffrey Springs said Monday afternoon. “Obviously, we understand that they're right on our heels, but it's one game at a time. And I feel like if we take care of what we need to and try to win every series from here on out, we should be in a good spot.”
Statistically speaking, they might just be competing for seeding at this point. According to FanGraphs’ playoff odds, the Yankees’ chances of winning the division were up to 93.4 percent as of Monday afternoon. (The Blue Jays’ odds were at 5.1 percent and the Rays’ down to just 1.5.) But with the Orioles falling back a bit, and the White Sox and Twins lagging behind them, the clear Wild Card contenders are the Mariners, Rays and Blue Jays.
All three clubs have at least a 98 percent chance to reach the postseason, according to FanGraphs -- the Mariners at 99.9 percent, the Jays at 98.6 and the Rays at 98.2. So, what’s really at stake as Tampa Bay and Toronto duke it out down the stretch?
Aside from the outside chance of one winning the division, postseason seeding is important. Winning the top Wild Card spot guarantees home-field advantage in the three-game Wild Card Series, and that has to matter for all three of the clubs jockeying for that spot right now.
For the Mariners, it would bring postseason baseball back to Seattle for the first time since 2001. For the Blue Jays, it would mean a chance to play playoff games in front of their raucous home crowd for the first time since 2016. And for the Rays? Well, just look at their record at home this season.
The Rays have gone 47-24 at Tropicana Field this year, whereas they entered the week with a 31-36 road record. They began this series with a 12-18 record on the road against AL East opponents compared to a 24-10 mark against division foes at home. Just something to keep in mind in case the Rays and Jays meet -- again -- in October.
Senior Reporter Adam Berry covers the Rays for MLB.com and covered the Pirates from 2015-21.