One month later, these look like best Deadline deals

One month later, these look like best Deadline deals

September 2nd, 2023

Who made the best move at the Trade Deadline? It's a question that is asked and examined in the immediate aftermath of the Deadline every season. Obviously, we never have any true answers until we see these players perform in their new uniforms.

As we are a month removed from the Aug. 1 Deadline, now seems like a good time to take stock of the swaps and construct a ranking of the 10 best deals based on player performance.

That's what we have done below. We are limiting this list to only players on contending teams, so while Royals acquisition was perhaps the top starting pitcher in the Majors last month, he isn't among this group.

Here are the top 10 deals from the 2023 Trade Deadline.

Stats updated through Thursday.

1. Lance Lynn, Dodgers
The Braves' lineup has been torturing opposing pitchers all year long, and they got to Lynn on Thursday night, tagging him for seven runs over 4 1/3 innings. But that outing was not indicative of the renaissance he has experienced with L.A. When he first took the mound as a Dodger on Aug. 1, Lynn owned the worst ERA of any qualified starter -- 6.47. Through his first five turns with his new team, however, Lynn posted a 2.05 ERA. He held batters to a .681 OPS, which was a 156-point drop from his season with the White Sox. Lynn has leaned more on his four-seam fastball with the Dodgers, throwing that pitch 53% of the time prior to Thursday’s start and limiting hitters to a .620 OPS against it. They had an .811 OPS off of his four-seamer before the trade.

Lynn was acquired at a time when was on the injured list, Julio Urías had an ERA near 5.00, and was struggling through an arm injury that would require Tommy John surgery. The Dodgers desperately needed someone to stabilize their rotation, and the right-hander has done that. He played a sizeable role in what was the team’s most successful month in Los Angeles.

2. , Rangers
's season-ending elbow injury left the Rangers in need of an ace. They ended up finding two at the Trade Deadline. We’ll start with Scherzer, who has looked much more like the future Hall of Famer we know in Texas following a rather bumpy first half of the year with the Mets. Just look at how his barrel rate, strikeout rate and opponents’ batting average have improved:

Barrel rate
With NYM: 10.0%
With TEX: 4.4%

K rate
With NYM: 27.3%
With TEX: 33.6% (T-2nd-best among qualified starters in August)

Opp. BA
With NYM: .240
With TEX: .167 (5th-best among qualified starters in August)

Scherzer has served up only two homers in 30 2/3 innings with the Rangers after allowing 23 homers in 107 2/3 innings with the Mets. He has allowed just nine earned runs across five starts with Texas, and his success has been complemented by the next entry on our list.

3. , Rangers
News of the Rangers’ move for Montgomery broke on July 30, one day after they struck for Scherzer. So, the former’s arrival might have been a little overshadowed by his new teammate, but the left-hander has been better than Scherzer in some categories. For one, his 2.30 ERA tops Scherzer’s 2.64.

Montgomery began his Texas tenure with four straight starts with at least six innings pitched and no more than two runs allowed. He has issued only five walks across 31 1/3 frames and, like Scherzer, has cut his barrel rate drastically, from 8.6% to 4.6%.

A mediocre month has seen the Rangers drop into third place in the AL West, but Scherzer and Montgomery have held up their end to make sure they don’t fall any further. Texas entered August with a 4.23 rotation ERA. Thanks to the work of these two, the club turned in a 3.15 mark last month, the best in MLB.

4. , Astros
Verlander accomplished just about everything during his first stint with the Astros from 2017-22. Two Cy Young Awards. Two World Series championships. An ERA title. Verlander’s 2.26 ERA during his five-plus years in Houston was the second-best among all starters (min. 600 IP). And his homecoming is working out pretty well, too.

The Astros dealt two of their top four prospects to reunite with Verlander, and he registered a 2.79 ERA through his first five outings, winning four of them before Friday's loss to the Yankees. And even at 40 years old, JV is always trying to find ways to improve. Thanks to a recent fix in his mechanics, tossed back-to-back scoreless outings going into Friday that featured 16 K’s over 11 innings.

5. Josh Bell, Marlins
After hitting the third-fewest home runs in the Majors through the season’s first four months, the Marlins knew what issue they had to address at the Trade Deadline, and they addressed it twice over.

Miami first bulked up its lineup with Bell, who has taken his power to another level in Miami. His eight dingers in 100 at-bats nearly match his total with Cleveland (11) through 347 ABs. That includes a banner day on Aug. 9 as Bell became the first player in franchise history to go deep from both sides of the plate.

One key number in Bell’s power surge: He has a 42.5% fly-ball rate with Miami, far above his career mark of 31.6%. Bell’s .550 slugging percentage in August was one percentage point below NL home run leader , and his 140 wRC+ was the highest of any qualified hitter traded at the Deadline.

6. , Marlins
The Marlins added more beef by buying Burger, whose fun last name is finally paying dividends. He hasn’t been able to maintain his elite 19.6% barrel rate and .313 ISO from the first half; those numbers are at 10.5% and .162, respectively, with the Marlins. However, he has still been a very productive bat. 

Burger has shaved his strikeout rate with his new club by about one-third -- from 31.6% to 21.3% -- and has made those extra balls in play count. A career .245 hitter, his August slash line was a solid .323/.380/.485. His 137 wRC+ was the second best of his young career in a calendar month.

7. , Cubs
We have another reunion in our No. 7 spot. Candelario signed with the Cubs as a 16-year-old international free agent in 2010 and broke into the big leagues with them in 2016. Some considered him the top position player available at the Deadline, and he made those people look really smart when he celebrated his first game back on Chicago’s North Side with a four-hit performance.

Then he did it again the next night.

Sadly, Candelario wouldn’t bat .800 for the rest of the month, but he did boast a strong .305/.370/.524 slash line with 12 RBIs through his first 23 games following the trade. He has slumped over the past week, but Candelario will be integral to the Cubs’ efforts to track down the Brewers in the NL Central.

8. , Rays
An honorable mention here to reliever , whom the Rays picked up from the Pirates on June 2 and has handcuffed hitters to a .096 average over his past 17 appearances. His cutter has produced an absurd 59.3 whiff rate since the start of July.

But in the wake of season-ending injuries to and , the Rays craved a steady presence in the middle of their rotation. Then, after acquiring Civale, Tampa Bay lost to Tommy John surgery, making the former Guardian even more essential. 

Civale has been as-advertised, pounding the strike zone and producing a lot of weak contact. He has issued only two walks across 25 1/3 innings with the Rays. His 32.9% hard-hit rate last month ranked 11th among starting pitchers (min. 80 batted balls). And he too has an extremely valuable cutter.

9. Josh Rojas, Mariners
On July 31, the Mariners resided 3 1/2 games out of a playoff spot and traded their closer, , to the D-backs. Were they selling? Nah, it turns out Seattle was just retooling.

That deal brought back three players, including Rojas, who had a significant part in the team’s rapid ascent up the standings last month. The Mariners went 20-4 from Aug. 2 through Aug. 28, turning a six-game deficit in the division into a one-game lead. Rojas played in 17 of those contests and batted .310 with three homers, four steals and an .855 OPS. Since Aug. 11, only (2.0) and (1.2) have a higher fWAR than Rojas (0.9) among Mariners batters with at least 50 plate appearances.

10. , Phillies
Lorenzen has scuffled over his past three starts since throwing a no-hitter on Aug. 9, permitting 13 earned runs and five homers in 15 innings.

But, oh yes, there was that no-hitter. And it was amazing. It was just the second time since 1900 that a pitcher authored a no-no in his first home game with a new franchise. It was also the eighth no-hitter from a pitcher who switched teams at midseason. Even better, Lorenzen got to do it with his family watching from the stands.

Most of the players on this list have had more productive months than Lorenzen. But few in the entire league have had a more special moment this season.