Ohtani's top trade destinations if Angels eye a deal
Shohei Ohtani recently said he had “a rather negative impression of the season,” a statement which sounded grim but should be neither surprising nor unexpected, given that his Angels team went 73-89, the eighth consecutive season to end without an appearance in the postseason. It would have been noteworthy had he said anything other than that, really.
Normally, when you have a player like Ohtani (to say nothing of Mike Trout), there’s only one path: Forward. But there’s nothing normal about this situation, in part because the club’s ownership is exploring a sale of the team, and in part because the Ohtani clock is ticking. He’ll make $30 million via arbitration in 2023, and then he can be a free agent, free to go anywhere he likes.
As impossible as it seems, as improbable as it might be to comprehend, the Angels might just consider trading Ohtani this winter, knowing that they are unlikely to contend with the current roster, and the return would be much higher than it would be at the Trade Deadline -- and infinitely better than the Draft Pick they’d get if he signed elsewhere in free agency (assuming the likely issuing of a qualifying offer).
If that’s what comes to pass -- that Ohtani becomes available this winter via trade -- it will upend the Hot Stove in ways we’ve never seen before, simply because we’ve never seen a player like this before. (It's true, to be clear, that GM Perry Minasian said that Ohtani wouldn't be traded. It's also true that Nationals GM Mike Rizzo said last summer that he wouldn't trade Juan Soto, two months before doing exactly that. These kind of statements are hardly binding, and as with many things, they're true right up until they aren't.)
It’s difficult to try to come up with proper trade packages, given the unique situation of “an all-time great player” but “only getting one guaranteed season of him.” It might be top prospects, or moving the remaining four years and $154 million due the disappointing Anthony Rendon, or both. That said, we've recently seen the likes of Mookie Betts and Francisco Lindor (among other superstars of the past) traded the offseason before free agency, so it's not a stretch to imagine the same with Ohtani.
But before we can get into what the return might be, we can try to figure out the destination. You’d like to say the other 29 teams would all be interested, and maybe they should be, but the realities of competitive windows and payrolls make that unrealistic.
Ohtani does not have a no-trade clause, for what it’s worth. He doesn’t have full control over where he goes, if anywhere. That said, it does seem unlikely a team would surrender what it would cost if they didn’t believe he’d be interested in signing a long-term deal. All that said ... there are 29 other teams in the Majors. Maybe the most likely outcome is that he sticks in Anaheim, but that won't stop us from having fun thinking about what other uniforms he might be wearing in 2023. Which destinations seem the most probable? A countdown.
Not ready to contend in 2023
29-24) Nationals, Pirates, Reds, A’s, Rockies, Tigers
If Ohtani isn’t in Anaheim because he’s not sure they can win, he’s not going to go somewhere in a similar or worse situation, right? There might be bright times ahead for these franchises, but serious contention in 2023 does not seem to be on the table -- even with Ohtani. If he plays in any of these cities next year, it will be on the visiting team.
On the rise, but difficult to actually see a fit
23-21) Royals, D-backs, Marlins
Each of these three teams had losing records in 2022. Two of them will have new managers. It’s been years since any of them were particularly relevant. The direction each is going is at least promising, but none of them will employ Shohei Ohtani in 2023.
Contenders who just aren’t going to make this move
20-17) Brewers, Twins, Guardians, White Sox
We absolutely did not intend for this section to be full of Central Division teams; it is a coincidence. Then again, maybe it's not, because if these teams were doing things like going to get Ohtani, maybe we would not look at the two Centrals in the way that we do.
The fits are obvious. Imagine, if you would, what the light-hitting Guardians lineup would have looked like with Ohtani at DH -- when he’s not paired with Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie in the rotation. Imagine if the Brewers had that desperately needed additional bat, plus another ace. Maybe we’re stretching the definition of “contenders” with the Twins, but imagine Ohtani next to Byron Buxton in the lineup and giving them the ace they so desperately need. The White Sox probably need a bat with a little more defensive value than Ohtani offers, but they've been short a left-handed bat for a few seasons now, and for all the rotation talent they do posses, it was 36-year-old Johnny Cueto who had the second-best ERA on the team in 2022.
All that said, his next home is not terribly likely to be here.
The squint-and-you-can-see-it league champions
16-15) Astros, Phillies
We’re not convinced the Angels would actually send Ohtani to a division rival like Houston anyway, but even if they would ... well, Ohtani is so good that you could really never make a baseball case that a team doesn’t badly need him. But if you could, you’d look at the DH and rotation situation the Astros have already, and you might convince yourself they have larger issues to deal with.
The Phillies, given all the money they have tied up in Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber, seem like they're not in a spot to go out and add a full-time DH. (Not of course, that Ohtani is merely a DH.) But mostly, we’d appreciate the irony of the Phillies finally getting that big-time star from the Angels ... who is not Mike Trout.
The team that might view this as a long-term play
14) Giants
For most every team on this list, it’s about what Ohtani adds in 2023, knowing that also gives you a head start on trying to extend him for the future. It’s difficult to know what to make of the 2023 Giants, who followed up a 107-win miracle with an injury-plagued 81-81 roster that couldn’t hit for power or field the ball. It’s clearly a time of change by the Bay, with Buster Posey already retired and the Brandons -- Belt and Crawford -- reaching the end of their long careers; if the team lacks anything the most, it’s star power.
That’s why they’re well-expected to be in on the Aaron Judge market this winter, but might they also make a play for Ohtani, pitching the ability to stay on the West Coast on a team with the resources to improve quickly -- while knowing it might not be in the playoffs in 2023?
The “no, hear us out on this one” contender
13) Rays
There is, and we couldn’t stress this enough, very little chance that Tampa Bay would offer Ohtani the kind of long-term contract that he’s going to command next year. It’s not how they operate. But the way they do operate is to surprise people, and what would be more surprising than this?
Think about it: They have the prospects, and they could afford the salary for one year. Ohtani would be an incredible boost to a lineup that always seemed one bat short and a rotation that only sometimes functions as a rotation. It would immediately make them World Series contenders -- and, in typical Rays fashion, it would give them the chance to flip him somewhere else at the Deadline should the season not go according to plan. It’s unlikely, we know. But it was, anyway, credibly reported they tried to sign Freddie Freeman last year and were interested in trading for Kris Bryant and Craig Kimbrel the year before. Stranger things have happened.
The teams that might want to kick-start their rebuilds
12-10) Red Sox, Cubs, Orioles
Baltimore, Chicago, and Boston aren’t exactly in the same place. For the O’s, 2022 completely turned around the perception of their franchise, and the future suddenly looks bright, with the rotation a notable right-now need. The 88-loss Cubs have been swimming in place for a while now, though they were notably better in the second half, and seem ready to add talent around Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki. And the Red Sox? They plodded to the finish line, yet clearly possess the resources to do whatever they want.
It’s probably not likely that the Orioles would sacrifice much of the talent they’re accumulating for a potentially one-year addition, but it’s also not like an Ohtani comes around every year. We’ll admit we’re not really sure what the Red Sox plan to do. But the Cubs? A big-market team that needs help everywhere, that plays in a weak division, that has a farm system deeper than it’s been in years, that has just a ton of payroll space to play with, that seems to be done moving backward and is ready to move forward? Now that, we could see.
The teams the Angels might not want to work with
9-7) Dodgers, Mariners, Rangers
There are baseball reasons for each of these clubs to be interested. When, for example, have the Dodgers ever shied away from top talent? They have the resources, both financial and prospect; they have the location; they even have the need, given Walker Buehler’s injury, the annual question of Clayton Kershaw’s return, the potential departures of bats Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger. They might just want to change the narrative after a 111-win season ended in an NLDS disappointment.
The Mariners? Now there's an incredible fit. Ohtani is the perfectly-situated superstar for a young team on the rise, the bat they badly need. (And even though they're well-staffed in the rotation without Ohtani, his arrival would give them enough of a surplus that they could trade a starter for another bat, like the middle infielder they simply must acquire.) The Rangers are considerably further away, but it’s hard to see them spending what they did on Marcus Semien and Corey Seager and then not trying to fix a tattered rotation.
You can see the case for each. But would the Angels really do any of this? There’s an extremely strong case to make that if you’re going to trade a star, then there’s value in depleting the talent base of your closest rivals. Yet it’s going to be complicated enough for the Angels to move Ohtani, should they choose to do so, and to send him to a place where he’s either in the same division (or with their closest geographical rival) seems like an extra wrench in a situation that hardly needs more complexity.
The team you should not ever, ever count out of any trade speculation
6) Padres
If there’s a trade, AJ Preller is interested in making it, which is a statement we offer first as a joke and then, the more you think about it, is just simply reality. He built his entire rotation from trades, and then also traded for Juan Soto ... and Josh Hader ... and Austin Nola ... and Josh Bell, and you get the idea. At a certain point, the Padres' farm system will run dry, and it’s certainly been depleted by the recent run of moves.
But there’s been a connection between the two for some time. San Diego was one of the finalists when Ohtani first chose the Angels back in 2018, and they were reportedly interested in acquiring him this past summer. The Padres have more than $50 million in expiring contacts this winter -- Wil Myers, Bell, Sean Manaea and Craig Stammen among them -- and while they do need to try to sign Soto, the fit here both on and off the field is a stellar one.
Besides: How incredible would Ohtani look in those sweet City Connect uniforms?
The best fits
5) Braves
We have to admit, on a first draft of this list, the Braves were much lower. It just doesn't feel like the move they'd make. But the more we looked at their roster and their situation, knowing how much young talent they have signed to long-term deals, players that could either be built around or used to entice the Angels, knowing that Angels GM Minasian was in the Atlanta front office for three seasons before being hired in Anaheim, knowing that DH was a big weakness for the Braves in 2022 ... well, we just couldn't talk ourselves out of it. So here they are.
4) Yankees
They tried already, anyway, making an offer to the Angels at the Deadline, and whenever there’s a big-ticket star in the mix, you should assume the Yankees will be, too. That doesn’t mean they’ll land him, of course; note that Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Carlos Correa were not wearing pinstripes in 2022. But with Aaron Judge’s free agency the biggest story of the winter, an already-limited Yankee offense can’t survive without another bat. Judge aside, you won’t find a better one than Ohtani -- who, you might have heard, can pitch too.
If there’s a roadblock here, it’s that adding Ohtani would require considerably more Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield next year, since Ohtani would take up DH when he’s not pitching. That’s not really what you want. You’d also have to imagine you’d make it work for the sake of having Ohtani.
3) Cardinals
It’s a time of change in St. Louis, with Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina off to retirement, and Adam Wainwright entering his final year. Even Paul Goldschmidt, while still playing at a very high level, will turn 36 years old near the end of next season. This lineup was already operating at a bit of a power deficit aside from Pujols and their corner infielders, and now that DH spot is wide, wide open.
Given the way in which they acquired those two star infielders in the first place -- trading for Goldschmidt after 2018 and Arenado after '20 -- the St. Louis front office is clearly not afraid of making a big splash via trade. There would be just about none bigger than this.
2) Blue Jays
Toronto doesn’t really have to do much of anything at all, if it doesn’t want to; nearly the entire core that made it to the Wild Card round still remains. You could add some relievers and call it a day, if you really wanted to. But there’s an argument to be made that the core could use some shaking up, too -- that the young relatives of famous ballplayers could use some new voices around them.
Baseball-wise, it’s a fit, as it would be for nearly any team. The DH spot is flexible, especially if they trade one of their surplus of catchers in an Ohtani deal, and the need for a lefty bat has been an obvious one for some time. The rotation does have Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman atop it, but Ross Stripling is a free agent, Hyun-jin Ryu is injured, and José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi were -- charitably -- inconsistent in 2022. In a tough division, sometimes loud moves need to be made. None would be louder than this.
1) Mets
Do the Mets need another power bat? Very badly yes, they do; that was clear all season long. Do the Mets need another top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher? Hardly any team would say “no,” of course, but with Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker, and Chris Bassitt all free agents, and Max Scherzer turning 38, the need here is particularly acute. Do the Mets play in a market, and with an owner, where making a big splash is almost as important as adding quality baseball players? You better believe it.
It wouldn’t just be about marketing, either. Ohtani fits the Mets' on-field baseball needs perfectly, and then some. The Mets even employ Billy Eppler as their general manager, who held the same role in Anaheim when Ohtani decided to join the Angels. They have Francisco Álvarez, the top prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline, who fits nicely as the centerpiece of a deal. They have shown a willingness to sign star players to big contracts. It all fits together.