The best-projected players to change teams, so far

The best-projected players to change teams, so far

January 2nd, 2025

Some of the biggest stars in baseball have switched addresses this offseason. But who from that group might help their new clubs the most next season?

Here are the top players who have changed teams so far this offseason, ranked purely by their expected 2025 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), per FanGraphs’ Steamer projections, as of Jan. 1.

Note: This doesn't count players who re-signed with the same team, such as with the Rangers, with the Dodgers or with the Mets.

1. OF , Mets: 6.5 WAR

Soto has averaged 6.2 FanGraphs WAR over the past four seasons, so this projection is in line with his past production. That said, the 26-year-old outfielder hit 41 home runs, put up a .989 OPS and produced 8.1 fWAR in 2024 with the Yankees. He could easily meet or surpass that mark in his first season of a massive 15-year, $765 million deal with the Mets, but even if he doesn’t, Soto has a good shot at leading the way in WAR among players debuting for new teams in 2025.

2. OF , Cubs: 4.9 WAR

Tucker played at a 8.7-fWAR 162-game pace in 2024, but he only played 78 games due to a fracture in his right shin. A 4.9-WAR campaign would be right in line with his 2021-23 production, in which he averaged 23 stolen bases, 30 homers and 104 RBIs a year while slashing .278/.353/.517. Now with the Cubs, Tucker might have to battle the gusts of the Windy City on fly balls on occasion, but he has a strong chance to put up a stellar year in his age-28 season.

3. SP , Red Sox: 4.8 WAR

With 209 strikeouts in just 146 innings of work, Crochet leapt onto the scene in his first professional season as a starter. The Red Sox certainly hope the lefty’s swing-and-miss stuff is worth the hefty price they paid to acquire him from Chicago, but if he can go deeper into games (Crochet averaged just 4.56 innings per start in 2024) he could very well be one of the most valuable starters in the Majors. Only three pitchers in MLB -- , and -- are projected for more 2025 WAR than Crochet.

4. 3B , Astros: 4.0 WAR

Paredes was worth 3.4 fWAR in 2024, making the American League All-Star team before being traded to the Cubs. His 31-homer season the year before netted him 4.3 fWAR. Paredes' 2025 projection got a boost after he was included as a key piece of Houston’s return for Tucker, in part because of his strong fit with the Astros. Paredes’ dead pull power should very much help him when it comes to finding the Crawford Boxes at Daikin Park.

5. SS , Giants: 3.9 WAR

Signed to a seven-year deal, Adames joins fellow free-agent acquisition in a suddenly scary left side of the San Francisco infield. The shortstop set new career highs with 32 homers (including an MLB record-tying 13 three-run shots) and 112 RBIs in a potent offensive campaign in 2024. Adames racked up 4.8 fWAR in 2024 and could approach that mark once again if he can hit for power at Oracle Park -- not always an easy task.

6-T. SP , D-backs: 3.6 WAR

Burnes' fWAR has been as high as 7.5 (in his 2021 NL Cy Young season), but he's been in the 3-4 WAR range for the past two seasons thanks in large part to a strikeout rate that has declined from elite to merely average. Still, Burnes' durability and knack for throwing strikes and limiting hard contact gives him one of the highest floors among starting pitchers, even if his ceiling is lower than it used to be as he heads to the desert.

6-T. SP , Dodgers: 3.6 WAR

Snell’s first half of 2024 after signing a late free-agent deal with the Giants wasn’t optimal: The 2023 National League Cy Young Award winner had a 9.51 ERA through his first six outings. But Snell was dominant from there, posting a 1.23 ERA with 114 strikeouts in 80 1/3 innings in his final 14 starts, including a no-hitter against the Reds on Aug. 2. It was the second straight monster second half for Snell, and it’s what the Dodgers bet on when they signed him to a five-year, $182 million deal. If he can pitch all year like it’s September, Snell has a great chance to lead all pitchers on new teams in WAR -- or perhaps even rival the likes of Soto or Tucker.

8. 2B , Blue Jays: 3.5 WAR

Giménez’s value is primarily driven by his glove -- but what a glove it is. The slick-fielding second baseman had 2.8 fWAR in 2024 despite a .638 OPS; when he slashed .297/.371/.466 in 2022, he was worth 6.1 fWAR. Giménez will have to improve with his bat in order to play at that All-Star level again, but he could meet this projection on defense alone.

9. SP , Yankees: 3.3 WAR

Compare Fried’s 3.3-WAR projection for 2025 to his actual results in 2024, when he posted a 3.25 ERA and 3.4 fWAR in 174 1/3 innings of work. The Yankees, who secured Fried’s services on an eight-year, $218 million deal -- the biggest guaranteed contract for a left-handed pitcher in history -- would likely be just fine with another season like that. Fried is a big-ticket addition, but in a rotation with , , and , simply having a solid, healthy 2025 will suffice.

10-T. 1B , Astros: 3.1 WAR

Walker didn't get much of a chance in the big leagues until he was 28, and that late start, plus the pandemic-shortened season, limited him to just 4.1 career fWAR through his age-30 season in 2021. Since then, however, he's reached the 3-WAR mark three straight times, thanks to a combination of big-time power and top-of-the-line first base defense. Even with Walker now entering his age-34 season, Houston had enough confidence in that skillset to sign him to a three-year contract.

10-T. SP , Angels: 3.1 WAR

Kikuchi was stellar in his 10-start stint with the Astros in 2024, pitching to a 2.70 ERA with 76 strikeouts in 60 innings after being traded from the Blue Jays. His Houston tenure helped him on the free-agent market, where he landed a three-year, $63 million deal with the Halos. Kikuchi totaled 3.5 fWAR in 2024, his highest total in any season, and is projected to surpass the 3-WAR threshold again.

12. 2B , Tigers: 3.0 WAR

Torres is coming off a disappointing season with the Yankees (1.7 fWAR), but he's only 28. The Tigers were able to land him on a one-year, $15 million deal, and if Torres rebounds as the projections foresee, that will be a bargain for a Detroit club that just finished 29th in the Majors in OBP despite making the playoffs. Even in 2024, Torres posted a .330 OBP that was in line with his career mark and well above the league average.

13. 1B/OF , Yankees: 2.7 WAR

Projecting Bellinger has not been an easy task over the years. He's produced an fWAR as high as 7.9 (in his MVP-winning 2019 season) and as low as minus-1.0 (just two years later). Basically, his value has bounced all over the place on an annual basis. So take this projection with a grain of salt, but don't be surprised if Bellinger, at age 29, rides the rollercoaster back up as he settles into a new home in the Bronx following a trade from the Cubs.

14. SP , Reds: 2.3 WAR

Singer rebounded from a tough 2023 season, improving his ERA from 5.52 to 3.71 and putting up a 2.5-fWAR campaign in 2024. Moving from one hitters’ park to another in terms of his home games probably won’t help a ton, but the 2018 first-round Draft pick is projected to be a solid starter in his first year with the Reds.

15. SP , Athletics: 2.2 WAR

Tommy John surgery limited Springs to only 10 starts from 2023-24. But since 2022, when the Rays moved him from the bullpen to the rotation early in the season, he owns a 2.44 ERA over 184 1/3 innings. If Springs can stay healthy and come anywhere close to approximating that after his trade to the A's, he could blow past this projection.

16-T. SP , Phillies: 2.1 WAR

In 2023 with the Marlins, Luzardo showed what he's capable of in a full, healthy season (3.8 fWAR). But that's the only time the 27-year-old has been able to throw more than 100 1/3 innings. Last year, a stress reaction in the lefty's lower back limited him to 12 starts, and he wasn't at his best. But Luzardo, after his trade to Philly, said he's at 100% again. If that's the case, it's not difficult to imagine a pitcher with as much talent as Luzardo blowing past this projection.

16-T. 2B , Royals: 2.1 WAR

Not far below Singer is the man he was traded for (along with outfielder Joey Wiemer). India amassed 3.4 fWAR in his NL Rookie of the Year Award-winning 2021 campaign and hasn't met that mark again since, but his 2024 was better than the previous two seasons. Reluctant to chase pitches and happy to take his walks, India should bring his strong plate discipline to Kansas City to form a fun double-play tandem with

18-T. SP , Athletics: 2.0 WAR

The largest guaranteed contract in A’s history? It now belongs to Severino, who signed a three-year, $67 million deal to join the club’s rotation. He was a solid part of the Mets’ starting five in 2024, pitching to a 3.91 ERA in 31 starts, but that came after a dismal 6.65 ERA with the Yankees in 2023. If the good version of Severino shows up again, he can definitely meet his WAR projection.

18-T. SP , Tigers: 2.0 WAR

Dealing with several injuries, Cobb made just five starts with the Guardians in 2024 -- three in the regular season and two in the postseason. Still, he pitched well enough to command a $15 million deal from the Tigers for 2025. A solid rotation piece when healthy -- Cobb has a 3.75 ERA in 77 starts since 2021 -- the right-hander posted 5.5 fWAR from 2022-2023 with the Giants.

18-T. 1B , D-backs: 2.0 WAR

Arizona acquired Walker's replacement via trade with the Guardians, landing Naylor ahead of his final season of club control before he's due to reach free agency. While Naylor has not been nearly the defensive wizard that Walker has, he's strung together three straight well-above-average seasons at the plate, generating a 121 wRC+ and 6.8 fWAR in total.

18-T. OF , Orioles: 2.0 WAR
O’Neill had a resurgent year with the Red Sox in 2024 and should benefit from the reconfigured left-field wall in Baltimore. This projection would be higher if O'Neill had shown an ability to stay healthy, but even last year, he made three trips to the IL. Still, there is upside here -- O'Neill was worth 5.3 fWAR for the Cardinals in 2021.

Five honorable mentions

SP , Brewers: 1.9 WAR
Cortes eclipsed the 3-WAR mark in two of the past three seasons with the Yankees, and he'll have every opportunity to do so again in Milwaukee.

SP , Mets: 1.9 WAR
Not only is Holmes moving across town, but he’s transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation, too. That makes him even harder to project than most.

DH , Rangers: 1.9 WAR
If this were purely about projecting offensive performance, Pederson (130 projected wRC+) would be much higher. On a rate basis, he was one of the top bats in baseball in 2024.

SP , Red Sox: 1.4 WAR
This projection is actually impressive, considering that Buehler did not pitch at all in 2023 due to injury and had a negative WAR in '24. The ceiling is still high here, though.

RP , Yankees: 0.7 WAR
WAR is not the best reflection of reliever value, but Williams is among the elite closers in the game. In fact, he leads all pitchers in win probability added (WPA) since his 2020 rookie season. So in terms of his actual 2025 impact, he could rank much higher.